Every season, various NBA analysts will produce a column about scoring in the NBA. These columns always focus on the offensive side of the game, and declare the season a success if lots of teams are scoring more than 100 points a game. (I'm not really a fan of this, since I get a lot of satisfaction when Paul rips an opposing guard for a fast-break, the team forces a 24-second violation, Chandler or David West force a bad shot inside, or when Peja moves his feet on defense. Hell, my buddy and I drink every time Peja rebounds. Maybe I'm weird, but I enjoy defense.)
Anyways, when those inevitable columns come out, you can expect them to declare this season a success. Just like last year, there are 9 teams scoring more than 100 points a game, and what's more, they are getting more shots because the pace factor of games are up! Yay! The league wants to be Phoenix - all scoring and no defense! Go NBA!
Well, any article declaring that will be wrong. The story of this season is not a continuation of improving offense, it's of an improved defense all through the league.(I prefer to say defensive improvement and not offensive ineptitude. What can I say, I love the NBA?) Last season, NBA teams averaged 106.4 points per posession. This season that number has dipped to only 103 points per posession. So then, how are teams still keeping their scoring numbers up? The afore-mentioned increased pace of the league. Last year the average posessions per game for a team was 92.5. This season teams get slightly more than 95 posessions per game. On average, you'll now get to see your team shoot 2.5 more times per game, unless you're a Knicks fan, then you get to see that many more turnovers.
Before I had looked into the numbers today, I had somewhat assumed the reason for the impressive defensive numbers was the Celtics. The Big Three + Rajon Rondo have led that team to a Defensive Efficiency rating of 92.9. To put that in perspective, it's the 2nd best non-lockout defensive effort in the past 25 years. Only the NBA Champion Spurs of 2003-04 sported a better one at 92.3, and the next closest is the '93-'94 Knicks with a rating of 95.5. The Celtics have been nothing short of spectacular.
With such an impressive defense operating in Boston replacing last year's dismal one, I had assumed their excellence was skewing the overall numbers. I was wrong. The league as a whole has improved it's defense, and not just the good teams - the bad teams are better at defense as well. There were 5 teams last year that gave up 110 points per 100 posessions: Memphis, Milwaukee, Washington, Seattle, and Portland. This year, there are none. Not one. The worst defensive efficiency mark in the league is the Timberwolves at 108.9. There were 10 teams that gave up more points per posession than that last year.
So what does that tell us? Maybe increasing the pace makes people shoot worse? The league average field goal percentage is 45.8, and last year it was 45.2. Or perhaps teams haven't started to tank their seasons yet, hoping for a better lottery position. It could also be certain good teams haven't hit their stride yet. Probably it's a combination of the three.
Still, any way you look at it, expect better defense while watching the game this year. Hope you don't mind.
Oh, and here's a chart with each teams defensive improvement. You'll notice that nearly everyone has improved. A bunch of teams have managed to improve by going from Abysmal to Awful(Grizz, Bucks, Sonics). In fact, a team has to either be really screwing up(Bulls, Cavs), or to have been already playing defense on a really high level(Spurs) to have not improved at this point. Even the Knicks have improved by 0.6. I bet Isiah will mention that at some point.
Enjoy:
| Team | '06-'07 Def Efficiency | '07-'08 Def Efficiency | Improvement |
| Celtics | 107.2 | 92.9 | 14.3 |
| Lakers | 109.0 | 101.0 | 8.0 |
| Wizards | 110.9 | 103.1 | 7.8 |
| Hawks | 108.2 | 101.6 | 6.6 |
| Hornets | 106.7 | 100.1 | 6.6 |
| Blazers | 110.2 | 103.8 | 6.4 |
| Sonics | 110.4 | 104.2 | 6.2 |
| Nuggets | 105.6 | 100.1 | 5.5 |
| Grizzlies | 112.4 | 107.4 | 5 |
| Bucks | 112 | 107.3 | 4.7 |
| Pistons | 103.9 | 99.5 | 4.4 |
| 76ers | 106.8 | 102.5 | 4.3 |
| Clippers | 105.5 | 102 | 3.5 |
| Bobcats | 107.7 | 104.5 | 3.2 |
| Kings | 108.1 | 104.9 | 3.2 |
| Jazz | 107.3 | 104.2 | 3.1 |
| Nets | 106.2 | 103.2 | 3.0 |
| Raptors | 105.8 | 102.9 | 2.9 |
| Pacers | 105.6 | 102.7 | 2.9 |
| Warriors | 107.4 | 105 | 2.4 |
| Suns | 106.4 | 104.3 | 2.1 |
| Magic | 104.4 | 102.4 | 2.0 |
| Rockets | 100.0 | 99.3 | 0.7 |
| Knicks | 108.9 | 108.3 | 0.6 |
| Mavs | 102.9 | 102.8 | 0.1 |
| Heat | 104.7 | 105.1 | -0.4 |
| Spurs | 99.8 | 100.4 | -0.6 |
| Timberwolves | 108.1 | 108.9 | -0.8 |
| Cavaliers | 101.3 | 103.2 | -1.9 |
| Bulls | 99.4 | 102.6 | -3.2 |
7 legendary comments post your own
entersandman
01/14/08 11:05 AM
Great stuff, Ryan. Just had one comment- I don't think that pace makes people shoot worse inherently. That's the average outcome, sure, but I think what pace actually does is determine what "kind" of field goals a team will primarily be taking. Transition shots or ones taken early in the shot clock tend to differ vastly from other types of looks; to some players it's advantageous, to others it's not. Continuing that thought, I think the college game prepares players for playing at much slower paces (the fastest team in NCAA has a pace factor of 81 due to the 35 sec. clock among other things) So teams that plan on playing up-tempo need to find the guys who are more comfortable with the shots a fast pace offense provides. I'd say if teams like PHO or GS slowed down, they'd shoot less efficiently.
atthehive.wordpress.com #1
Ryan
01/14/08 01:26 PM
You're probably right. It's more likely the other two possiblities. Or some other possibility I haven't mentioned - like more comfort with zones from both players and coaches.
www.hornets247.com #2
Who
01/15/08 04:30 AM
Yep I've been thinking the same thing. We're seeing a lot of improved defensive strategies this year. Especially from teams like Portland which are now making fantastic use of the zone defenses. The teams are finally adjusting to the rule changes ....
#3
Mikey
01/15/08 04:54 AM
Great post as usual Ryan. I was wondering something. Has the number of 3-point attempts increased as well? 3-pointers are, by-nature, lower percentage shots, so perhaps the defensive improvement numbers are also influenced by teams chucking more 3's.
#4
Ryan Schwan
01/15/08 07:31 AM
I'll take a look at that soon, Mikey. My initial inclination is to say 'no' however. The FG% decrease I mentioned is fairly small overall. If it was caused by extensive 3-point shooting, I think the scoring would actually go up. A decrease of .6% overall wouldn't overcome the extra points garnered from the 3-point shots.
www.hornets247.com #5
joesph
01/15/08 05:21 PM
so any news on peja?? i heard he didnt play cuz of back stiffness. thats a bad sign. hope it aint serious
#6
Ron Hitley
01/16/08 01:26 AM
John Reid in yesterday's T-P: "Despite suffering from back stiffness, Hornets forward Peja Stojakovic participated in Monday's light practice and is expected to start Wednesday night against the Seattle SuperSonics at the New Orleans Arena."
www.hornets247.com #7