Game Preview!
Matchup: Bucks(16-24) @ Hornets(27-12)
Off Efficiency: Bucks 100.8(19th), Hornets 105.9(10th)
Def Efficiency: Bucks 107.0(27th), Hornets 99.8(3rd)
Relevant Blogger: Brewhoop, The Bratwurst
It's a Monday Matinee this time, with the Bucks galloping into New Orleans for a game starting at 2:30 CST. This is yet more game on this cake-walk homestand that the Hornets should handle fairly easily, because the Bucks are a team still trying to figure itself out. Like all games against doormats, the biggest danger is the Hornets coming in flat and not playing hard.
As for the Bucks, this is the second year in a row that there has been much optimism in Milwaukee about the team, but again they are failing to reach those expectations. And this year, though they've had some injuries, they aren't anywhere near as bad as they were last year. It seems, at least to me, that most articles about the Bucks focus on their offensive problems, blaming Charlie Bell, Simmons, or Villaneuva for their bad shooting, hyping up Bogut for his recent scoring numbers and claiming he's the solution, or even insinuating that Redd should be getting the ball more again. That's all well and good, but until their players play some defense, this team is going nowhere. The French in World War II put up more resistance than this Bucks squad most nights.
Good Ol' Desmond Mason will not be playing tonight, having had surgery in December, and Bobby Simmons is day to day with a bad neck. It kept him out of last game, and I'll assume he'll be out this game too. New Orleans has not submitted anyone on an injury list, so it looks like Adam Haluska(ankle) and Bobby Jackson(hamstring) will be available. Look out Chris Paul, Adam's comin' for you.
Positional Analysis
PG: Royal Ivey vs. Chris Paul
Advantage: Hornets
Ivey started the last game when Bobby Simmons was unable to go for the Bucks. He's a relative unknown, but he did make news a couple years ago for being the worst starter on any team that year. Playing for lottery-bound Atlanta, he averaged about 14 minutes a game, despite starting. Yeah, it never made sense to me either. Ivey is an energy guy who gets by on hustle, speed and defense. He's a poor shooter, not much of a passer and fairly turnover prone. He may bother Paul a little, but won't be able to slow him enough to matter.
SG: Mo Williams vs. Morris Peterson
Advantage: Bucks
Mo Williams is the normal starting point guard for the Bucks, and produces some fairly good numbers. He shoots well, and is a solid drive-and-kick guy. That said, I almost gave Morris Peterson an even chance against him because Williams is selfish and a terrible defender. I remember the Hornets playing last year and Williams would barely even try on defense, he just wanted the ball back as quick as possible so he could shoot again. Peterson plays defense hard, and shoots when he needs to. He's an exceptional team player, and that's worth a lot. In the end, I gave the edge to Williams, because he is capable of breaking open a game offensively.
SF: Michael Redd vs. Peja Stojakovic
Advantage: Even
Michael Redd is really a shooting guard, and doesn't do anything but shoot, making him a liability as a small forward. He is their star - but his shooting is down this year, and his rebounding and assists numbers are pathetic. Peja could easily match or surpass his numbers if he was featured by the Hornets as much as Redd is by the Bucks. Sad but true.
PF: Yi Jianlin vs. The Fluffecutor
Advantage: Hornets
Chinese Rookie Yi(pronounced "E") is an athletic, jumpshooting forward. Though he's just a rookie, his shooting numbers are already pretty solid, and he's not a bad perimeter defender. On the bad side, he's a poor rebounder and post defender for a seven footer. He may be miscast as a power forward, and I think this team would be better served to play him as a small forward. David West will overpower him on the inside, and if met on the outside, will put his shoulder into him and force him low.
C: Andrew Bogut vs. Tyson Chandler
Advantage: Hornets
The Bucks have a new focus for their offense, pushing it through Bogut in the post, where he has been hitting at a good clip and averaging 20 points a game over the past few weeks. Still, Tyson has slowed Yao Ming and Chris Kaman already this year, and I doubt Bogut will be much worse. Tyson will also outquick, outrebound, and outrun him, and we'll see at least two more of those CP3 to Tyson lobs this game.
Bench
Advantage: Even
This is a tough call - because I still don't trust the sudden Hornets bench resurgence. That said, the Bucks are suffering from the same sort of inconsistency from the bench that the Hornets are. Villanueva and Charlie Bell are shooting poorly, and Gadzuric is similar to Armstrong. If Mason was healthy, he'd be nice for them, and having Ivey off the bench is much better than having him starting. Still, the Hornets may win this battle too.
Hornets win 107-94.


20 jaw-dropping comments post your own
joesph
01/20/08 04:17 PM
i am kinda liking your prediction. but i am feeling more like 112 to 89
#1
sparks
01/20/08 06:45 PM
ron, where do you get the scouting info on most teams. mo williams being a horrible defender - even my mom knows, but the stuff you have on Easy E is amazing. who knows that stuff unless they watch the bucks - and who watches the bucks? lol!
#2
sparks
01/20/08 06:47 PM
too add: i'm disappointed in you ron! you didn't mention mo williams harry shoulders/arms! dear god, for a millionaire, he should be able to afford wax or something. i was mesmerized by it when i saw him for the first time in a while against the lakers. flint connection! go charlie bell and mo pete!
#3
sparks
01/20/08 06:48 PM
oh never mind, i thought ron wrote this. i can forgive ryan though! lol. so what do you mean by rack?
#4
Ryan
01/20/08 06:56 PM
I've watched about four Bucks games this year - mostly to see what Yi was doing. I was interested in how he looked. Mo's defense was bad in the games against the Hornets last year. I remember thinking he didn't even try to stop Paul on several of his drives. Nothing I've seen this year makes me think any differently.
www.hornets247.com #5
Mikey
01/21/08 02:10 AM
I think the bench advantage lies on how limited B-Jax will be with his bo-bo hammy. Obviously it's not bad enough to have him inactive for this game, but he and Mo Pete have been pretty even in min. the last couple weeks. If Jackson can get his usual time on the floor, we should have the upper hand.
#6
Ron Hitley
01/21/08 02:23 AM
Wasn't Ivey the guy who got teabagged by Hakim Warrick in the tourney a few years ago?
www.hornets247.com #7
frank
01/21/08 03:36 AM
Ron, great site, and thanks for linking to Brew Hoop (I'm not sure if we're getting a preview up in time today). I don't see much reason for optimism from a Bucks' standpoint but they have been playing better against good teams of late. Unfortunately they still can't, you know, beat any of them. Bobby Simmons could return to start at SF, which would move Redd to SG, Williams to PG and Ivey to the bench. Simmons tested his strained neck before the game on Saturday but couldn't go. Otherwise it will be the lineup you have listed. Yes, defense is absolutely still the biggest issue with this team. I don't think we talk about it as much just because there's seemingly no hope with this current group. The starting guards are poor defenders and no one on the team seems very capable of playing help defense. And if you make it a transition game the Bucks have no chance, even though they do have some reasonably athletic players. Yi has had his ups and downs but I think it'd be a big mistake to move him to SF. He's too mechanical and error-prone with his ball-handling to be an SF, and he hasn't figured out how to post smaller players up despite being mainly a post player before he came to the NBA. It's also much harder for him to get open perimeter looks and to use his quickness against smaller defenders. Teams have generally done a much better job lately in denying him open 18-20 footers. He rarely has to defend guys in the post since Bogut typically handles those guys (few teams have two), but he's generally been much better defensively than expected. West obviously isn't a favorable matchup, so I'm curious if the Bucks try to use Bogut against him if DW starts taking it to Yi in the post.
www.brewhoop.com #8
Ron Hitley
01/21/08 04:23 AM
Thanks for the insight, Frank. Just to be clear folks, I usually post the game recaps here and Ryan posts just about everything else these days. I'd love to take credit for his work but last time that happened he killed my pet donkey. Lesson learned.
www.hornets247.com #9
Ryan
01/21/08 04:32 AM
Dude, your pet Donkey SO deserved it. Don't you remember what he said to me?
www.hornets247.com #10
frank
01/21/08 04:39 AM
Sorry, Ryan...you're great, too. And Ron, I would gladly trade you Dan Gadzuric for your dead donkey. So long as your Donkey has less than two years and $15 million left on his contract.
www.brewhoop.com #11
Ryan
01/21/08 04:45 AM
I always wondered what happened with Dan. I was fairly impressed with him a couple times. Then he got that contract and he vanished. Oh - and Bobby Jackson is out for todays game according to the Times-Picayune.
www.hornets247.com #12
Ron Hitley
01/21/08 04:48 AM
I didn't know he said anything to you, Ryan. I just thought he looked at you cross-eyed and you flipped, which may have been a slight overreaction since he was a naturally cross-eyed donkey. Frank, I think we'd make that trade, although we may need to throw in Rasual Butler to make the salaries work, and to make the deal a little sweeter for us.
www.hornets247.com #13
Ron Hitley
01/21/08 04:57 AM
Bobby fickin' Jackson. He looked okay strolling through the casino after the game on Friday. I was gonna run up and push him over to test his balance, but thought better of it.
www.hornets247.com #14
Abdul
01/21/08 05:23 AM
I just wanna say I just got NBA league pass and I'm gonna be seeing my Hornets and Peja , CP3 , Tyson and Fluffy and of course Mo' Pete play for only the second time on TV and I'm probably the happiest man on the face of this earth. Does anyone know if Peja's gonna participate at the 3-point shootout. I predict a close game even though it shouldn't be 104-98.
#15
Mo
01/21/08 06:00 AM
Yeah, I think Bobby is out for this game.
#16
Mikey
01/21/08 06:01 AM
Bobby Jackson is out you say??? Guess what time it is then; it's ADAM HALUSKA:30!
#17
Ron Hitley
01/21/08 06:04 AM
I haven't heard anything about Peja in the 3-point shootout. I'd like to see him there though so I could root for somebody.
www.hornets247.com #18
frank
01/21/08 07:44 AM
Gadzuric has always been a spaz, but the last couple years he's no longer been able to harness his energy for the powers of good. Now that we're a halfcourt team that never runs his lack of bball IQ is magnified. Basically he was good as long as Toni Kukoc was around to give him the ball at the rim. He's a good example of how great athletes are not necessarily good basketball players.
www.brewhoop.com #19
Anonymous
01/21/08 12:31 PM
Peja and MoPete should both be invited to the 3point shootout, and Paul to the skills challenge. Paul and West should both the going to the game. Actually Paul, West and Chandler should all be going but the rest of the NBA is completley ignorent to our success as a team.
#20