About the mid-point of the season I did an evaluation of which teams had improved the most from last season, basing the ranking on the Defensive and Offensive Efficiencies of the teams from year to year. Now that we are near the end of the season, and the numbers probably won't fluctuate much any more, I decided to update those numbers now that the schedules have pretty much evened out for everyone in the league.
(Just a refresher, the efficiencies I use are a measure of the number of points a team scores or gives up for every 100 posessions. This allows us to compare teams like the Hornets, who play a slow game and only get 91 posessions a game, to teams like Denver, who gets 102 posessions. The differential is the difference between those two numbers. I.E. the Hornets score 109 points per 100 posessions and give up 102.9 points per 100 posessions for a differential of 6.1.)
Overall, thirteen teams improved this season and seventeen took a step backwards. There are a clear top 4 most improved teams, all of whom have improved their overall efficiency differential by more than 5 points: The Celtics(16.1), Hornets(8.1), Lakers(7.1), and Magic(5.7). Conversely, there are five teams that have posted efficiency differentials that have declined by more than five points: the New York Knicks(-5.1), Sonics(-5.8), Clippers(-6.2), Bulls(-8.9), and Heat(-9.2).
Here is a table listing all the teams and their changes:
Team Efficiency Differentials Improvement
A couple other items of note I drew from that table:
- The Spurs, despite being near the top of the conference, are actually quite a bit weaker than last year. That bodes well for us Western Conference hopefuls.
- The Pistons have improved over last year, no small feat considering how good they were then. You have to point to that solid bench mob.
- The Trailblazers have made a nice improvement over last year, but in order to compete with the big boys, they are going to have to make that same improvement again next year, plus some. I'm fascinated to see if they can.
- The Bulls suck, and I'm still completely flabbergasted by them.
After looking at the overall numbers, I broke down the teams even more, since its always nice to see just where their improvement is coming from - offense or defense? Lots of fascinating tidbits came out of this one:
- Overall, Defense is still the priority of most teams this year. Only 6 teams have worse defenses than last year, while only 9 teams have managed to improve their offense.
- The Hornets have improved more on the offensive end(+4.3) than the defensive(+3.8), but both were very nice increases.
- The Celtics improved the most on both ends of the floor. Screw them.
- If Kevin Garnett is such an incredible defender, why is it the offense of the Timberwolves that has suffered(-3.7) and not their defense?(-0.1)
- I am not insanely jealous of the Celtics success. Screw them.
- As noted all year, the Wizards defense has improved greatly.(+4.2) What isn't mentioned is their offense has gotten correspondingly worse.(-4.3) Its interesting the net change of Agent Zero being out is essentially zero.
- The Trailblazers offense has gotten a little worse this year(Randolph, anyone?), but their defense has gotten MUCH better.(Randolph, anyone?)
- The Lakers offense hs improved slightly(+1.4), but its their defense that has gone from awful to good(+6.1).
- The Spurs defense hasn't changed at all, It is their offense that has suffered.(-3.8) probably due to all the old shooters slowly transitioning to using walkers.
- The Supersonics actually improved at defense this year by a significant amount(+3.5). Too bad their offense is now non-existent.(-9.3)
- The Grizzlies have offset a nice defensive improvement(+3.6) by forgetting how to score efficiently.(-4.3)
- Jason Richardson hasn't helped the Bobcats offense at all.(-2.0) Their defense got better though(+1.2), probably when Brezec went north. Literally.
- The Milwauke Bucks improved their defense!(+2.6) They are now only the 29th worst defensive team. Unfortunately, their offense has fallen apart(-4.3). (Desmond Mason, anyone?)
- The Bulls suck.
Here is the table:
Offensive and Defensive Differential Changes 06-07 to 07-08
Enjoy.


7 jaw-dropping comments post your own
mW
04/03/08 06:22 AM
You know, I got to thinking about the post y'all put up about defense. Seeing these stats made me think about it again. And having just watched a strange Hornets/Heat game, you really start to realize how thin the line is between good defense and bad defense. Season ticketholders got to watch a practice mid-season. Unsurprisingly, during shot practice, everyone nailed just about every shot. Even Tyson and Ely shooting perimeter shots. They are pros after all. Probably you'd get the same results from J.J. Redick despite only having put up 358 points in two seasons. Probably the same from Miami's quasi-D-leaguers (contested, against the Celtics, they dropped 17 FGs, against an also excellent, if at times lacadaisical Hornets, they put up 27). So my point as it relates to defense is that when the Hornets were locking down on them, you had a 14-2 start. Then they were laughing about how it easy it was and the Heat starting making shots, despite their inferior talent, and held it to around 12 most of the half. When the Heat started making shots again in the third because the Hornets were lazy on defense, the Hornets clamped down and went on a 32-11 tear in the fourth. I think this shows how any one remotely close to pro level can make shots. They wouldn't be there if they couldn't. But making those shots on the move or with a hand in your face makes a huge difference. So when players take off or drag feet on even one play it can make a huge difference in a close game. In one sense this is obvious, but on the other, it shows how if you don't play tight, even a team like the Heat can beat you. It also shows how a talented player, like Rashard Lewis can shoot 7-9 when you don't pay attention to him and cover all the way out. The Celtics, Pistons, and Spurs have proven they can do this every night. The latter two all the way through the NBA Finals. To finish this season strong, the Hornets need to do the same.
www.hornetshype.com #1
Ron Hitley
04/03/08 06:39 AM
Excellent post again, Ryan, and you make a great point in that comment, mW. I think the key to good defense is just staying focused. Players almost have to expend more mental than physical energy, because it's stuff like positioning and anticipation that make the biggest difference. I think this is why Julian Wright will be an elite defender. He has all the physical tools, but he plays real smart on the defensive end, too. BTW, Ryan, I love that observation of the T-Wolves defense minus KG.
www.hornets247.com #2
Mikey
04/03/08 08:35 AM
As well as illustrating the full complexity of the Bulls' suckatude.
#3
Ryan Schwan
04/03/08 09:34 AM
I always enjoy crunching numbers and finding out things that no one knows - like the Bulls sucking. I agree Wawer - defense is 100% effort. There is no way you canaccidentally stumble intopressuring a guy, orthrough luckkeep him from getting good position.You also always have to be aware of the play and ready to move. On offense, you can hit lucky shots, and on most sets, two members of the team usually don't move more than ten feet to provide spacing and have to simply keep their hands up to catchkick-outs.
www.hornets247.com #4
twills
04/03/08 12:15 PM
good stuff Schwan. i was interested to see if those numbers matched up exactly to win/loss differential, so I figured out a the differences from this year to last year (normalized over the number of games) and everything comes out about the same. The celtics are way ahead of rest of the pack followed by the hornets, lakers and everyone else. There's a few that buck the trend (especially the mavs with their +52 win differential last year) but all in all team efficiency lines directly up with wins and losses. Good stuff.
#5
entersandman
04/03/08 03:09 PM
I'm with Ron... that T-Wolves stat is awesome. Good work on that. Normally, you hear KG's replacement (Big Al) smashed by commentators about his D. From what I've seen of them, Gomes seems like a great (especially help) defender, as does Craig Smith. Let's hope this gets some more publicity, instead of Boston's "accidentally" leaked individual defense stats. They so did that on purpose.
atthehive.wordpress.com #6
sparks
04/04/08 08:14 AM
lol at the ppl dissing kg's defensive ability, when he's probably going to get the DPOY award. best pick and roll defender in the leauge. one of the best help defenders as well - very few ppl can do both things well. <strong>how about stiffs like ricky davis and mark " i only average 2 rebounds a game" blount...you know, the dudes we saw in miami are no longer a teammate of kg in minny? </strong> btw, all jefferson sucks defensively. lets not be crazy about it. great player. lazy defender. lets hate on our rivals. kg is no longer a rival, since he plays in another conference. hate on kobe. <strong>my god, all along, i thought kobe raped a girl. not kg. </strong>
#7