Okay, for a guy who is really hoping Chris Paul takes home the MVP trophy this year, I'm about to do something kinda stupid. I'm going to talk up one of his teammates and explain why he isn't ten times better because Chris Paul is on the floor.
(By the way, one of my favorite stat-sites, Dave Berri's Wages of Wins Journal, weighed in some more on the MVP race and picked Paul to win it. Also, the Blogger MVP Rankings Round 10 is up and Paul has put some real distance between himself and the rest of the field. It's gotta be because we hosted it last time.)
I've been reading every MVP article out there, and its great to see Paul mentioned pretty consistently now, but one argument that keeps cropping up has started to bug me:
"Chris Paul is so valuable to the team because he turned a marginal talent like David West into an All-Star."
Okay. Judging by the previous two years - I can see where they are coming from. That pick and pop from the top of the key is always on the highlight shows. West has nailed more than a half-dozen game winners from there, but almost all came on assisted passes from Chris Paul. Offensively, it's what he's known for - the Jumper as Soft as a Fluffy Bunny. This year, however, West is a lot more than a simple mid-range catch and shoot jumpshooter, and as always, here some stats that prove it.
In order for Chris Paul to get credit for West's production, West must be getting a lot of his shots off of assists, right? That would mean that Paul was creating the shots, not West. For the season, West scores 58% of his points on assisted shots. That sounds like a big number, but it's not. Here are the top Power Forwards in the league and the percentage of shots they make that are assisted.
- Kenyon Martin: 75%
- Carlos Boozer: 71%
- Amare Stoudamire: 71%
- Rasheed Wallace: 69%
- Kevin Garnett: 67%
- Pau Gasol: 66%
- Josh Smith: 65%
- Rashard Lewis: 64%
- LaMarcus Aldridge: 64%
- Antawn Jamison: 63%
- Chris Bosh: 58%
- David "Fluffy" West: 58%
- Dirk Nowitzki: 55%
- Zach Randolph: 50%
- Tim Duncan: 50%
That table alone makes it pretty clear. David West ties for 4th amongst Power Forwards when it comes to creating his own shot. I don't hear anyone saying Rondo or Pierce make Garnett - or that Billups turns Wallace into an All-Star. The fact that Stoudamire has almost 3 out of every 4 shots he makes set up for him by someone else didn't stop him from being All-NBA First Team. Why is West being singled out for that treatment?
So please, Paul is special, but let's give West some credit too.
15 superb comments post your own
Ron Hitley
04/07/08 07:34 AM
Wow. That's some good stuff, Ryan. It's been bugging me as well that people just assume West is riding CP's coattails. The Hornets' number one option on offense is usually to find West in the post and let him go to work. His production from there has little to do with Chris. Nobody makes the point either that West helps CP rack up the assist numbers by knocking down those 17-footers so consistently.
www.hornets247.com #1
Nels
04/07/08 08:29 AM
I am also of the opinion that West could post 20 and 9 with someone like Rajon Rondo as his PG. Not to take anything away from Paul, just to make sure West gets his due.
www.givemetherock.com #2
sandy
04/07/08 08:54 AM
it depends on the power foward. some like to isolate - chris bosh, dirk, tim duncan - and others play a team game before they get the ball back - kevin garnett, wallace, boozer. its up to the player. and its up to the team. lol, zach rondolph is tied with tim duncan. yet the dude never makes the playoffs. chris makes tyson chandler. and really, david doesn't have a lot of great passers around him. its just chris paul. so its not shocking that david creates a lot of his own stuff.
#3
Ryan Schwan
04/07/08 09:40 AM
You're right, team system has a lot to do with it, but the numbers do pretty clearly prove that West is not relying onCP3 to set him up, which was my whole point. Oh! One item I couldn't find a logical place to insert into that post - In the previous two years, West managed about 25 passes for three point shots. Now, due to the number of shooters on the floor and his new post up game that he passes out of periodically, he's on pace to generate 80 passes for three point shots and almost double his total assist numbers. Nice.
www.hornets247.com #4
mW
04/07/08 10:46 AM
Not that I want to contribute to anti-CP3-for-MVP talk, but I too have been stunned that everyone talks about Kobe's Gasol/Bynum and Garnett's Allen/Pierce, and een Howard's Turkoglu, but you rarely hear CP downtalked for having West on his team. Which is sweet. But maybe after CP wins the MVP, we can shout it louder. Especially as David's numbers are pretty much the same as any PF MVP contender. But don't tell anyone.
www.hornetshype.com #5
Mikey
04/07/08 11:22 AM
You also have to keep in mind the number of touches a player gets. Randolph and Duncan may be tied percentage-wise, but I bet if you looked a raw numbers, Duncan gets double the touches that Randolph gets. Here's one for you, Ryan. David West is the <strong>Obi-Wan Kenobi</strong> of Power Forwards. He is not gonna do anything to dazzle you with his weapons, but don't underestimate his mastry of the basics.
#6
XXL
04/07/08 10:18 PM
This is my main beef right now... everyone assumes Paul makes West. Had a guy tell me most of Paul's assists go to West. It's pretty irritating. He creates his own shot half of the time. Chandler is really the one getting the K-Mart treatment... so I don't know what team people are watching. But hey, with their current record and a guaranteed splash in the playoffs, I'm pretty sure they're going to be on National TV spots a lot more next season (maybe even TNT) so I expect for more people to wise up to how the team really is.
#7
Apple
04/07/08 11:38 PM
I can't remember where I read it but it was noted that Chris Paul was probable winner of the MVP, Byron Scott for Coach of the Year and David West a possible for Most Improved Player. Wouldn't it be great if the Hornets swooped those awards? ;-)
appleita.blogspot.com/ #8
Red's Army
04/08/08 08:18 AM
Just wanted to let you guys know that even us Celtics fans are giving D West some love: http://redsarmy.wordpress.com/2008/04/05/unsung-player-day/
www.redsarmy.com #9
Ron Hitley
04/08/08 08:26 AM
@ Red's Army: Yeah, I saw that. Much appreciated. I actually linked it up at the end of our Unsung post on Peja Stojakovic.
www.hornets247.com #10
Jack
04/08/08 11:30 AM
Out of curiosity, where have you been reading comments about David West being marginal? All I ever hear about is how underrated he is. You failed to include the fact that Tyson Chandler is assisted on 60% of his shots. No one ever accused Tyson of being able to create his own shot, yet by this method of measurement it would seem that he is better at it than some of the elite power forwards in the NBA such as Kevin Garnett. So I don't know how much I agree with this statistic as useful. I happen to think that West is wildly overrated, and that he should not have been an all-star. If you switched him with a number of Power Forwards that have a jump shot the Hornets would be no worse off.
boards.espn.go.com/boards/mb/mb?rls=NBA& #11
Dervin
04/08/08 11:30 AM
David West being good just doesn't fit into the narrative for the press. He's put up an impressive career since coming into the league (you guys know more about him than me), the problem for David is LBJ, DWade, Chris Bosh, Melo and Josh Howard are from his Draft Class as well. Maybe if he came out in 2002, he might have been given more respect.
#12
Jack
04/08/08 02:09 PM
No response to me questioning your little statistic? Let's hypothetically switch any of the following never been all star power forwards who are capable of shooting an outside jumper with David West: Rashard Lewis, Al Jefferson, LaMarcus Aldridge, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Al Harrington, Troy Murphy, and Joe Smith. Do I think that the Hornets are considerably worse off with any of those guys? Nope. Heck, I'd even argue that with most of those guys I named the Hornets would be even better. Power forwards capable of sitting there on the pick and pop and hitting an outside jumper in the same spot every single time are really not that rare. Your assist percentage stat cannot explain how Tyson Chandler is only at 60% while Kevin Garnett is at 76%. Any stat that suggests in any way that Tyson is better at creating his own shot then KG should be immediately discarded.
#13
Ron Hitley
04/09/08 05:47 AM
Hey Jack. Sorry, I just saw your comment now. First off, West doesn't live off the pick and pop. Most of his buckets come from him working on the low block. Of all the guys you mention that could replace West, maybe only Al Jefferson is as effective in the low post (not that I've seen many T-Wolves games), and I don't think he's a reliable shooter. As for Tyson, I'm guessing only 60% of his shots are assisted because he leads the League in offensive rebounding, and therefore gets a lot of buckets off put-backs. Almost everything else he gets is an alley-oop. Nobody in their right mind would consider Tyson to be better at creating his shot than KG. That's not what was implied here.
www.hornets247.com #14
Ryan Schwan
04/09/08 08:05 AM
Yeah, sorry Jack, I hadn't seen your comment either. The articles I've been reading are about CP3 for MVP. Articles that are about the Hornets success this season do usually state that West is over-rated, but the people makeing pro-CP3 arguments for MVP usually end up dismissing West. As for Tyson, Ron hit the nail on the head. Tyson lands 13% of his points off of tip ins - and those don't count the points he gets by getting a rebound, landing, and then going back up to dunk. West gets 5% from tip ins. Still, none of this refutes the point I'm making. West's offense talents shouldn't bedismissed because he plays with Paul, and compared to other scoring Power Forwards, he gets less help than most. Your list: Rashard Lewis, Al Jefferson, LaMarcus Aldridge, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Al Harrington, Troy Murphy, and Joe Smith. Lews, Wallace, Harrington and Smith are no where near the rebounders West is, so they are out. Murphy and Randolph don't defend, and West is actually the Hornets leading shot blocker and a decent post defender. I'd take him in a hearbeat over both. Al Jefferson would be great on the team, but what team wouldn't want him? Aldridge is close to West - but he's still only producing 80% of West. Maybe in a couple years.
www.hornets247.com #15