All the signs were there. I should have known the Hornets wouldn't be making much noise in this off-season. The finances alone pointed to it. This team doesn't want to spend past the Luxury Tax line. As a team with the cheapest ticket in the NBA and one of the smallest markets - they really can't afford to spend past the Luxury Tax line.
Still, it's always exciting to speculate, and if you look at the team finances for this year, it looks like we've got about nine million to play with - allowing us drop a mid-level contract, pick up Pargo, and grab some other scrubs. We had a few pieces that we probably could find a taker for - Butler and James aren't entirely immovable. We could maybe clear some room, fix that bench, and roll to the Western Conference Finals this year. I posted about it. I got excited.
Reality Check. Big names don't sign for short contracts. Next year, assuming we pick up Julian Wright's and Hilton Armstrong's contract options, we'll have 64 million worth of contracts on our books after Paul's big extension. If we sign ONE person to the mid-level this year for longer than one year, we'll be over the Luxury tax. The following year, Tyson Chandler can opt out of his contract and sign a long term one. You better believe that'll happen. The year after that, David West can opt out of his contract, and sign another long term one. Because of the clever way Bower signed him, his contract is actually getting smaller every year. You better believe he'll opt out of that last year when it falls to 7 million.
This is why the Hornets have "expressed interest" in various players like Posey, Pargo and Hayes. They can't put any money down because they feel they have to be conservative so they can keep the core together.
So - expect nothing flashy this summer. The biggest move is that Hilton Armstrong may go - he's been only mediocre in summer league and Byron and Bower have been known to pull the plug quickly on someone they don't think is panning out. I'd expect a couple Pargo-level signings, a couple scrub signings, and for the Hornets to call it an off-season. It's a bit disappointing.
I will comment on one nice thing about the salary structure Bower has put together. Morris Peterson and Peja's contracts expire just in time for West to opt out, giving us enough money that year to resign West and probably two more mid-level guys. James and Butler expire just in time for Tyson Chandler to opt out. He's built this team's salary structure so he can keep that core together. With those three and a couple shooters, we're going to be good for a long time.


19 mighty comments post your own
Ron Hitley
07/15/08 11:38 PM
I think a lot of teams have to spend over the cap and bite the bullet with the Luxury Tax if they seriously want to win a championship. I admire how Bower and co. are structuring things to keep the core together. The result may be that we remain as one of the Western Conference elite, but will it ever be enough to get us over the top? Should we take more risks, bring on the extra salary to fill the holes in the roster and hope that we get rewarded with a championship? I guess one example of this might be Miami in 2006. I'm not sure if they were over the cap, but they took on Shaq's massive salary (a big risk) and got the massive reward. Of course, they mortgaged their future for that championship and they're suffering for it now. And then you have the Knicks, who are notorious for throwing money around, and it's never worked for them I guess my point here is that I don't envy Jeff Bower having to make these decisions. Tough stuff.
www.hornets247.com #1
David Hoang
07/16/08 12:52 AM
Is it possible for the Hornets to get JR Smith? He'll be a great 6th man actually fill up the super thin bench with some insta-offense. He is a restricted free agent...
#2
Ron Hitley
07/16/08 01:06 AM
@ David: I couldn't see it happening. Byron Scott wouldn't go for it, and JR Smith has never proven to be one of those "high-character" guys that the Hornets like having on the roster. And I don't think much of him as a player, either. He shows flashes, but I think it would be more risk than possible reward with JR. And can anyone believe the steal the Clippers made getting Camby from the Nuggets?
www.hornets247.com #3
sportnlife
07/16/08 01:41 AM
Initially, I fell for the hype, too. It seemed like two things were going to work against the tendency toward complacency and the monetary obstacles: 1) Chris Paul wanting to see evidence of serious roster improvement before re-upping, using the length of contract a la LeBron as leverage; and 2) the Moment: the glimpse of the promised land and the opportunity to become a small market perennial contender like San Antonio, with just a few moves. So when they made the trade of the draft pick, it seemed to me they were going all in to jump into the gap in the West that is opening up with the Spurs and Mavs fading, and the Lakers being Not Yet Ready for ShowTime. They seemed to be ready to pull the trigger. Instead, the $5 mil they got/saved over two years with the trade was just about the money. Like they're content to be the next Sacramento, and just "get close" every year. So I'm disappointed. Passing on Darrell Arthur, or even the much-rumored CDR, may come back to haunt them. Just as crucial, though, were the personnel mistakes of 2006 and 2007. Maybe JR wouldn't have been salvageable, even with CP3 to teach him professionalism. But they were developing chemistry when JR was shipped out for free, for who knows what act of insubordination? And what was there to lose by keeping Brandon Bass an extra year with a low qualifying offer? A space for Marcus Vinicius? Then in 2006, I'm looking at the board thinking, damn, picks 12 and 15 and a player to be named might get you Rudy Gay this year? So even when Houston drafts and then trades Gay, you can't get in on that action? C'mon? Nobody had Armstrong or Simmons making any real impact. Why not try to move up? Why this matters now is that Scotty's stubbornness and Bass' (I guess it was him, instead of Bowers that year) talent evaluation foul-ups have cost us the missing pieces we could have had at shooting guard and power forward to be a serious title threat, none of which would have put us in this position now where we have to count pennies to see if we can afford to be a factor. We'd be a Kwame Brown away from glory.
#4
jdub
07/16/08 04:43 AM
I agree with a few of your points Sportnlife but didnt we get our 3rd best player (Chandler) when we parted with JR Smith? I would not say that's trading him away for nothing... And as far as moving up with our two picks that round it wasnt going to happen, That draft was a very weak one that was strong at top and then their was a huge dropoff past 10 and above so noone was willling to miss out on their players. And at the time we desperatley needed a big man thats why we drafted two "Upside" big men hoping one of them would pan out and it has not worked out for us yet but I think Hilton will improve on his numbers this year. Also Bass for whatever reason just didnt work out here, That happens in the NBA just look no further then our own Tyson Chandler and Jannero Pargo, they struggled in Chicago and flourished here. Obvoiusly scott did not think Bass's play fit our system so they let him go to sign another player who they thought could play within their system. I know it's dissapointing but this happens all the time in the NBA. yes some of it has to do with Scott's stubborness but its that same stuborness that has made Chris Paul, David West, Tyson Chandlerand others into the players they are today. The way I see it is the staff believes we were a decent bench away from making it to the Western Confrence Finals. They think that Armstrong and Wright are going to develop even further so their counting on those two to improve our bench. Scott said Wright will play around 20 minutes a game next year, Hilton will prob play 15a game depending on foul trouble and his confidence level. So their's your backup center and swingman so all we need are a decent 7th and 8th man. One at PG the other at SG. Bobby Brown could possibly be the PG or Pargo so now we just need one more player. So why give away a terrible contract for an 8th man when this team is already built really well. They might be viewed as "conservitive" but they dont want to ruin some valuable cap space in future years for a player who might pan out for one year. They are trying to build a franchise like SA not Miami. They think West, Chandler, and Paul can be like Parker, Manu, and Duncan. So now all we need to do is put solid role players around them and keep cap space so we can continue to keep these guys around. And thats what their doing. The scary thing about this is not only can Wright and Armstrong improve but they also are counting on Chandler, West, and Paul to be better Their all 3 still young and have many years ahead of them. West is in his prime but with his shooting touch will always be a good player and Paul is still only 23! With the improvment of those three plus our bench they think will be good enough to contend every year. So why jepordize not re-signing our core playersbyoverpayingan8th man? I like what their doing and am excited for next season.
#5
Saunak
07/16/08 10:17 AM
Posey baby Posey. Posey is one the 5 best best role players in this league. He has also won 2 out of the last 3 championships. Jeff you are the man.
#6
Adam Rodney
07/16/08 11:22 AM
We got him!
#7
Matt
07/16/08 11:27 AM
He's OURS. Lemme see them rings next year, bees!
#8
hornetz
07/16/08 12:19 PM
May I re-post what I re-posted 3 weeks ago? hornetz says: May I re-post what i wrote 10 days ago? hornetz says: What's the chance that the Hornets attempt to acquire James Posey? He is rumored to be leaving Boston and joining a contender. Mind you, he will be highly sought after, as he has been a key contributor for two championship teams...
#9
joesph
07/16/08 12:33 PM
hey ron know we are serious contenders to win a championship with the signing of james posey. he is a guy who will help our bench big time and even maybe push morris peterson for the starting job.
#10
Kevin
07/16/08 01:19 PM
You guys really think James Posey is going to put the Hornets over the top? Well, I'm glad somebody does, because I sure don't. Posey's seven points per game don't exactly answer our bench scoring deficiency. Besides that, he's basically a slightly better Morris Peterson. That, coupled with the fact that we will be paying him until he's 35, doesn't excite me one bit.
#11
hornetz
07/16/08 01:28 PM
Kevin, I agree that perhaps Posey is somewhat over-hyped at this point. However, the Hornets main weakness was an inconsistent bench, which Posey will help to alleviate. Sure, his numerical stats don't blow anyone out of the water at this point, but keep in mind that he was playing only about 22 minutes a game last year. Over a 40 minute game, his numbers look much sweeter. Besides that, his hustle, ball handling, and ability on the perimiter only serve to strengthen the team. It is certainly possible that the signing won't pan out, but if so, it seems unlikely that Posey will be the weak link if the Hornets underperform next season.
#12
Dave
07/16/08 01:58 PM
The three biggest priorities in descending order of importance that I saw were: (1) A backup big man. Well that wasn't really available in free agency so fair enough. (2) Another scorer, go-to type scorer. Bonzi was the best available and I would have been happy bringing him back for another go around. That's off the table now. The team is still too one dimensional offensively and too reliant on Chris Paul. And way way down the totem list (3) A good perimeter defender who can stroke it from the perimeter. Check! Ah well. I'm disappointed the team didn't fill either of their two most important needs but at least it's improvement and not the team getting worse. One thing that bothers me is that this Posey contract will make it difficult for the other two holes to be filled in the future because spending the MLE again will only get more difficult financially. James Posey is a good role player. He's an excellent shooter. Tough as nails. Good defensive player. Rebounds well. Clutch player. He'll add a lot to team, especially to West and Chandler, Posey's toughness will only have a positive effect on their aggressiveness. I'm disappointed about Julian Wright though. I'm not sure what this means for him. I rate him as a better defensive player than Posey already and he clearly has potential for a lot more. He's really down in the depth chart after this signing. The contract is fine. Three years for Posey is ideal but four years is still a solid deal.
nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/ #13
jared
07/16/08 02:05 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Posey_Hornets-080716
#14
Yatin
07/16/08 04:04 PM
Unless we win it all in the next 2 years, we are REALLY gonna regret this contract. Posey is gonna be an old wing guy making $6+ million a year. JuJu isn't gonna be able to develop as well (I for one thinks his potential is great) because he won't be getting many minutes because of Posey. If we were gonna overpay someone to shore up our bench, I would've rather gone big andthrown $4.5-5 million a year at Turiaf. He's younger, fills more of a need, and would be modestly cheaper.
#15
Mo
07/16/08 04:48 PM
Never satisfied. Just ride the wave bitches! Stop complaining.
#16
Mike P.
07/16/08 08:52 PM
How much satisfied YOU will be seeing D-West and Tay Chandler lost to free agency soon because of this contract?
www.nba-blogs.net #17
sportnlife
07/16/08 09:25 PM
Posey is not the missing piece of the championship puzzle. But he's not a disaster waiting to happen either. The big man issue is now the key to a longer playoff run, just because West would have never made it through the Western Conference Finals with a bad back and no quality back-up to ease his minutes. West's the only player with a back to the basket game to be feared, even though he'd rather play 15 feet out. Since Chandler has no low post game, and it will be hard for him to suddenly develop one, the big need now is a low-post scorer and rebounder to keep West in the mid to low 30s in minutes played. My earlier post today was about being disappointed with the lack of FA activity. Still, I'm more optimistic about this signing than not, provided we get serviceable 4/5 guys up front, because it puts in place a second squad that will score off of defense as well as the first team's set offense, eliminating those long scoring droughts. I disagree with Hollinger that Wright will lose playing time to Posey. From now on, there will be no safe passing lanes with the second squad, because they will be in the game together and they will both be ball-hawking, and if CP3 is in the game with them, there will be lots of run-outs for easy scores. The fact that Posey and Wright are much better defenders than Peja and Peterson, can still make you pay at the three-point line, and are both better at putting the ball on the floor off a 3 shot fake means they'll be logging more time as the season goes on.That alone, though, does not spell championship for me. But it's a big improvement over the group we went into the semis with this year. Finally, I also disagree with Hollinger that Posey's contract is a big mistake because of length and amount. Posey's not the 4th highest player as John Reid says. That's a one-year technicality, when you consider that CP3 is already slated for a significant bump starting next year. More important than Posey's cost is that 1/7 of the salary pool is occupied by two guys with no court minutes to speak of--James (6 mil) and Butler (3 mil). As John Reid says, the way around this is a buyout of these two. If this happens, and the freed up money gets spent on building up the 4 and 5 spots with productive back-ups, then the trade of the draft pick this year for cash used in the buy-outs will turn out to have been a good move, and not a money grab as I suggested earlier.
#18
mW
07/17/08 05:59 PM
I see Posey spelling Mo at 2 and Ju-Ju coming in at 3. So I don't see Ju-Ju losing minutes to Posey. Also, I like the trade. It has Big Balls written all over it. The Hornets said they weren't fucking around this postseason and they just proved it. Did they overpay for Posey? Technically, yes. But if we get rings during the length of his contract? Not really.
www.hornetshype.com #19