(Had to get this up before the game tonight. The Game On post for Hornets-Bucks is here.)
Just want to take a minute to talk about Bill Simmons' latest article over at ESPN.com, in which he states the following:
And the Hornets nearly committed franchise suicide with a Chandler trade that seemed curious considering they have attendance triggers tied to their current lease.
(Note: Any conspiracy theorist -- here I am! -- could argue the Hornets intentionally antagonized their fans in a last-ditch attempt to shed the lease. They need to average about 15,000 fans to activate the lease through 2014, and they're a few hundred over this season … but that number would have dropped after the Chandler trade, right? Would you put a ploy that devious past the likes of George Shinn? Me neither.)
My first and second instinct is to roll my eyes at that conspiracy theory, but just for the hell of it, let's take a look and see how plausible it is.
The Hornets current arena lease runs through 2014. About a year ago they renegotiated with the state of Louisiana, the agreement being that the Hornets can opt out of the lease this summer if average attendance between December 1, 2007 and this season's end is lower than 14,735.
Before everyone found out about the Chandler trade, the Hornets average attendance since December 1, 2007 was 15,619 (not including playoffs; I don't think they count). The trade went down with 14 regular season games left. Assuming that George Shinn did indeed have a devious ploy as Simmons suggests, the average attendance for those last 14 games would have had to be less than 10,882 for the Hornets to miss that benchmark and opt out of their lease.
Given that 17,265 folks showed up to see the Hornets battle Orlando after the trade was announced (and before it was rescinded), we can come to one of two conclusions: a) George Shinn isn't very smart when it comes to devious ploys, or b) Bill Simmons should have checked the numbers before throwing his words around.
18 exceptional comments post your own
Rockabye
02/27/09 05:45 PM
It's fair to point out that the Magic are one of the few big road draws in the Association right now and that some of that 17K might have fallen off as the Hornets played teams without the attraction that is Dwight Howard.
It's also true that though the Hornets would have had SOME dropoff in attendance, though that seems like a massive one.
Anyway, good follow-up.
www.thearenablog.net #1
Niall Doherty
02/27/09 05:55 PM
Yeah, I guess I phrased it like the attendance for the Magic game completely disproved Simmons' theory. Oops.
The main thing I wanted to emphasize was that the drop-off in attendance would have to be enormous for the Hornets not to reach that benchmark. The only way we'd average < 10,882 for the rest of the season would be if Chris Paul was traded.
www.ndoherty.com #2
chefcdb
02/27/09 06:02 PM
I swear I get so tired of the punditocracy slagging on New Orleans, whether it be on our sports or the Gail Collins op ed in the NYTimes where she goes on about how the New Orleans metro area has taken billions in federal money. Excuse me, pundit Collins, but our community is getting funds because the federal levee system failed, flooded and killed us in an extreme case of shoddy work in the greatest natural disaster on American soil (in my lifetime and I'm pushing 50) simultaneous with the worst case of engineering malfeasance since the Mississippi River flood of the 1920s. I'm not gonna talk politics here, but I know all of what I lost due to the levees giving away, and money from Uncle Sam doesn't begin to cover it.
As to Simmons, I think being a long suffering Clippers fan has worn his basketball spirits dow to a nub, and understandably so. It sounds like great fun and dark controversy to lump Shinn into this sort of diabolical conspiracy to evade his lease, but it's just the journalist's sizzle without the data of facts about the juicy steak that is New Orleans hoops fans. People underestimate us as fans because they know we're football crazy. I'm not sure the pundits know how much excitement CP and the Hornets have brought to the region, and how fierce we are about celebrating our superstars.
All the same, I do think Bill Simmons raised many serious issues about the future of economics for the NBA. The predictions about the collective bargaining agreement are sad, annoying &hilarious, yet he seems to make sense on the big issues he sees on the horizon for owners to fight about. I think his CBA proposals would strengthen the league. He also rightfully rips the hell outta McGrady for his reasons to pursue injury as his personal economic stimulus. Let's not even get started talking about his comments on NBA refs. Simmons is a funny and incisive writer, and well worth reading, but I think he just doesn't get what it means to be a hoops fan in New Orleans.
To me, it's just another way to try to put us, our struggling city's recovery, and the Hornets into the tumbler of assumptions. This saying is especially true about New Orleans, "we all know what happens when you assume...."
Finally, I wonder if all these dire predictions about the economy will prove to last as long as we all worry about. Most of us weren't tuned in enough to see it coming, and while it's bad, it can turn around. Just how long that takes is the big question. I'm eager to hear other local hoops fans ideas. Gotta go to the game now!
www.greengoddessnola.com #3
fsumatthunter
02/27/09 06:05 PM
I don't think Simmons is much of a "check the numbers guy." West or Paul would have to be traded for nothing for it to drop that rapidly.
inthehuntwithhunter.blogspot.com #4
420ftJesus
02/27/09 06:09 PM
I've been tracking the attendance.
My key assumption here is that it seems they are counting ticket sales at attendance and not gate numbers, and that seems true based on some outragous `attendance' numbers over the last couple of seasons (the voodoo did the same thing, rest their souls).
After the Pistons game, the average attendance over the remaining games needed to eliminate the loophole was under 10,000, which means the loophole is closed if my assumption is correct. The number to reach was under 11,000 after Boston, so one has to believe the tickets needed to close the loophole were already sold.
That being said, he's rich, so he don't need to be smart to survive.
#5
Mark
02/27/09 06:14 PM
Can we still make fun of Bill Simmons now that you're on the TrueHoop network?
www.dogpile.com/ #6
davidgladow
02/27/09 06:33 PM
I give you full permission to do so.
Good work, sir.
#7
Andrea
02/27/09 10:07 PM
I'm not buying what Simmons said, but I still think that there was more behind the trade being rescinded than just a "turf toe injury that could Ty's career"
#8
YoungFella
02/27/09 10:13 PM
I'm willing to give Simmons a pass on the conspiracy theory. Mostly because he got the "important part' right.
That being that the trade of Chandler was essentially a franchise killer.
#9
ticktock6
02/27/09 10:37 PM
What chefcdb said.
But Simmons just talks out of his... parts of anatomy... without bothering to check numbers. It'd be fine, except when, like last time he wrote something off the top of his head (Hornets have bad chemistry), people start running with it due to the vast numbers of folks who read his column, and begin to cite it as a real source. That's what I have a problem with.
hornetshype.com #10
Jeremy
02/27/09 10:38 PM
Remember everyone, Simmons is a Columnist, not a journalist/blogger. So sometimes you must take some of his work with a grain of salt. However, at the heart of the column stating that the NBA is suffering with the fall of the economy is pretty accurate. Now, his ongoing infacuation (esp) with the Hornets leaving and possibly giving Seattle a franchise again is starting to rile up the fan-base a little too much. As much as I enjoy his work, in both print and audio, he needs to lay off our bugs.
Even though his analysis on the TC trade was well put.
#11
bigindian15
02/27/09 11:04 PM
Going to start by saying for the record that I absolutely love Bill Simmons. The only problem I have with him is that he's a Pats fan who defended Spygate, when I absolutely hate the Pats. But other than that, I read all his articles religiously and listen to most of the podcasts.
That said, I agree that there was probably more to the Chandler thing than just a "failed physical." I mean, who turns a dude down because of his left toe? It is (apparently) well known that Sam Presti coveted specifically Chandler for a long time, and the Thunder didn't even need to play him right away. They could have sat him for the year. OKC probably chickened out because they realized how hefty his contract is, and they realized they will have to resign Durant and Jeff Green and Westbrook, as well as build up a bench, and maybe they weren't willing to commit that much money in this economic time, so they drummed up a BS physical result.
As for his previous assertion that the Hornets might be quitting on their coach...I mean...haven't we all kind of wondered that at one point or another? We questioned Byron's rotations, his plays, his calls, his adjustments (or lack thereof), and the effort he was getting from the players. We all agreed that players not giving effort lies strictly on the coach's shoulders. He didn't exactly go wayyyy out on a limb and say something completely outrageous. Saying that the Spurs quit on their coach would be outrageous, but this was just his observation and he even said that it was only his opinion after watching one game.
By the way; let's say hypothetically the Chandler trade went through and the Hornets were instantly done as contenders. Last year, attendance didn't pick up until it was clear that the Hornets weren't a fluke and that Chris Paul was a legit MVP candidate (who should have won, in my humble opinion). And that was before the economy went in the toilet. Now, if they traded Chandler, we could wave bye-bye to any hope of a title this season or next probably, and fans are already hurting, so why would they come to a game? 10,000 per is actually a legitimate estimate for average fans to finish the season in those circumstances, especially because there are some crappy games left on the home schedule, so I'm not sure his guess was way off base...
Again, I love Bill Simmons, so take my comments with a grain of salt too :P
#12
mW
02/27/09 11:07 PM
Sorry. No passes for Simmons here. If he had done ANY research at all he would have realized his article was inane. The Hornets have over 10,000 season ticket holders. Check it:
http://blog.nola.com/hornetsbeat/2008/08/hornets_pass_10000_for_season.html
So there's essentially no way we can miss the mark he's talking about. Columnist or not, he should get that right. Freedom of speech is one thing. But Freedom of the press carries certain responsibilities.
www.hornetshype.com #13
saltandcarbon
02/28/09 12:58 AM
With mW. Being an opinion writer doesn't absolve you of some factual rigor.
#14
bigindian15
02/28/09 01:36 AM
Then again, Simmons doesn't claim to make any factual observations. He says repeatedly in his columns that these things are what he has witnessed and his own opinions. The rest of the piece was pretty insightful, so I give him a pass. He's said stupid things about every team, but writers do that. I mean, does anyone take him seriously? He always bashes the Yankees and Peyton Manning, but they don't get bent out of shape about it. Really, let it go, his words are just his opinion, not anything really important :D
#15
mhartzold
02/28/09 07:36 AM
Oh, Simmons. So smug, so self-assured, so wrong about so many things. The thing that I keep going back to when people talk about the Hornets moving is this: In what city are their attendance numbers going to be markedly better than they are here? What exactly is the incentive to get out of the lease?
Sure, New Orleans isn't exactly a large market, but I can't see things being appreciably different for them in Seattle or in any other city that is on the hunt for an NBA franchise.
Hornets247 ought to join freedarko in taking this guy to task, hard, over some of the reckless comments he makes. Just because he's Simmons and because we've all read him for years doesn't mean he isn't a douche sometimes; plus, he's a pretty influential character in the world of sports. And, while he is just a 'columnist' and not necessarily a reporter, many in journalism take their cues from him and others in similar positions.
#16
byronscott4
03/01/09 02:03 AM
I love reading his stuff and loved this article for raising points that some haven't thought of and I'm sure others wouldn't discuss. The NO moving angle is overplayed. I feel that the league needs to do something about guaranteed contracts though as it's getting to be a problem area.
#17
Apple
03/01/09 03:35 AM
Wasn't simmmons the one who had the brilliant aidea that CP and Scott were at eating at eat otherds throats. about who was running the ballcourt.
He's gotta have a tete du turk to beat on until he finds something meaningful.
appleita.blogspot.com/ #18