The Rockets have a very, very strong defense. They have for years. Their ability to contest shots and force you away from what you want to do makes it even more vital that when you get the shots that you want, you knock them down. The Hornets did that in the first quarter - and when they did miss, they went and got the ball. But after the first, their energy faded, the open shots they did generate didn't fall, and the game slowly got out of hand.
And when I say slowly - I mean slowly. It's not like the Rockets were scoring like mad, but when your team has 31 points with 9:00 left in the second quarter, and have only climbed to 35 fourteen minutes later, things are bound to have been ugly.
Observations:
- So, here's the deal with Peja. There is much made about the idea that Peja isn't having plays run for him, that he's being mis-used, that he should be sent in motion. So I kept track of plays where Peja was moving his feet, clearly having had a play called for him. There were twelve in the game. One, Paul saw an opening and short-circuited the play, diving to the basket and scoring. Twice Peja got free off a single pick as Battier got momentarily lost, and got two nice open shots. Three times, Peja ran off a set of three staggered picks, resulting in a nice open shot, a hurried deep three, and Paul being unable to get the pass to him because he was covered too well. Six times, he ran off a pair of picks and couldn't get open at all. For those of you keeping score, that's 12 plays for three open shots and an opening for Paul. If that's the return, I'm not sure its worth the investment. And if the investment continues to be made, he needs to do better than 0-4 shooting.(1-7 for the game, including shots off plays that weren't designed for him as a primary option)
- In a lot of ways, Luis Scola is David West with long hair to accentuate flopping skills. He's outgunned athletically, but compensates by working hard, muscling around, and using very fundamental post skills. He's also got a solid mid-range game. Therefore, it comes as little surprise that as he's grown acclimated to the NBA game, he's starting figuring out David West - since he uses the same moves to score. Scola did a great job containing West during the game - and he was left mostly to do it alone as the entire rest of the defense was keyed on Chris Paul.
- As soon as Paul made a move, a big was sent to help. When Yao was out there, it wasn't that great of help due to his slow moving feet, and it resulted in some nice Marks dunks, but when it was Scola, Artest, Landry or even Chuck Hayes, Paul had a very hard time getting any of his shots off easily. It was a well executed defensive plan, containing enough physicality to cause Paul to be just a little off balance, but not enough to make it clear the refs needed to blow their whistles - so they didn't.
- Melvin Ely did a good job on the boards for once, but was a disaster trying to score on anyone around the hoop. Sean Marks was great scoring around the hoop, but was a disaster on the boards. We need to whip up a splicing machine and make us a Melsean Markely.
- Posey had a nice solid game. Good enough that Byron kept the second unit on for a whopping six and a half minutes in the second quarter as they ran the offense through Posey. It was nice, but I've also got to point out that Posey took some bad, bad shots there. He hit them, but some of them were very bad.
- Butler had three three-point attempts and they all came during that drought in the second quarter. He missed them all. Badly. All were uncontested, and normally he'd stick a pair of em. If he had done that, the Hornets close the half only down only six - and probably even less than that since one of his errant threes lead to a long rebound and fast break. The Hornets could also expect some of the pressure on Paul to let up a little as Artest and Battier became more unlikely to lay off their guy. The Hornets have to have at least one outside threat.
- The second unit can't stop penetration. They were closing down the Rockets second unit led by Artest and Scola, but once Von Wafer and Kyle Lowry started being featured and went to the basket, it was all over. When Yao came back in, Byron sent in the starters. Not that it helped, really.
So the Mavericks barely pulled out a squeaker against the Wolves tonight while the Jazz crushed the Clippers. The Jazz play tomorrow night against the Lakers, while Dallas and New Orleans finish their regular seasons on Wednesday. The best possible situation would be for the Jazz to fall on the road to the Lakers. That would guarantee the Hornets wouldn't fall to the eighth seed, and they could rest their starters in San Antonio. If the Jazz win, the Hornets will need to come out on fire against the Spurs on Wednesday and secure their spot as the sixth or seven seed, because if they lose, they get the Lakers in the first round, and things become much, much tougher.
Have a good night.


21 thoughtful comments post your own
bigindian15
04/14/09 12:08 AM
I'm gonna guess that Pop is gonna rest his guys in the finale no matter what just because that's how he does things and they've been claiming all season that their seeding doesn't matter. However, we lost to the fricking Warriors missing like 4 starters, so that doesn't really mean anything...
Kinda expected this loss because our guys were gassed from last night. I'd be really glad that the Jazz play the Lakers tomorrow, except that the Cavs clinched homecourt tonight so the Lakers have nothing to play for. Expletive!
Then again, the Lakers know they match up well against the Jazz, so they may try to win against them so they can get them in the first round. It's really impossible to guess who will be resting who tomorrow and Wednesday (so why do I keep typing...?)
#1
Roc217
04/14/09 12:12 AM
If jazz win, I'd rather Hornets lose. I don't want them facing Rockets in the first round. Would rather face Nuggets.
#2
Roc217
04/14/09 12:15 AM
But then again if all 3 Hornets, Mavs, and Jazz lose they'll stay 6th facing Rockets anyway. Wow We really won't know until Wednesday who we'll face.
#3
cpeezy
04/14/09 12:29 AM
We needed this win tonight, it wouldve guaranteed us a 6 seed, and then we couldve folded against the spurs so that they get the 3 seed, other than dallas, the spurs are the easiest first round opponent for us. Now we need dallas to lose for us to get that 6. Spurs have the tie breaker so if they win on wednesday, they get the third. With a healthy tyson, theres only two teams we cant beat in the playoffs in a series, at least those two teams will most likely play each other.
#4
cpeezy
04/14/09 12:31 AM
And am i the only one embarrassed that we let that garbage von wafer burn us all night??!?
#5
Roc217
04/14/09 12:37 AM
Von Wafer is anything but garbage. He's the reason the games vs the Lakers are always difficult for lakers to win. He's a good shooter and slasher/penetrator. The hornets would benefit having him. I've watched many Rockets games and he's better than Wright, Brown, Butler....name a scrub on the Hornets and he's better.
#6
Mark
04/14/09 01:16 AM
Granted I didn't watch, but this does not inspire confidence at the very least.
Another injury riddled season will take us out of contention, bar none.
www.dogpile.com/ #7
bigindian15
04/14/09 01:39 AM
Von Wafer has been a monster this season. I think he's still pissed about that Kirk Snyder dunk (video anyone?). And I could have sworn he had a first name and was " " von Wafer, but whatever
And about your point about Peja, I'd say that no other team has perimeter defenders like Artest and Battier (the two best in the game IMO) to stay with him all game. The only other guy in the West with their defensive prowess that I can think of is Kobe (and maybe Kirilenko), and he won't guard Peja because it'll tire him out. And it didn't help that Butler was ice cold. Running plays for him will usually have more success. I'm just glad that he's moving ok and able to run off screen after screen and post up after the injury. He's not showing any timidness that I can see (then again I've only actually watched one game since he's been back)
#8
chefcdb
04/14/09 02:39 AM
Ryan is this right?
We win vs Spurs, we are 6th no matter what.
We lose, Jazz lose, Jazz is still automatically 8th.
We lose, Jazz wins, Mavs lose -- 3 way tie and I have no idea what happens. Is it down to best conference record, or do they do some accumulative head-to-head countdown?
We lose, Jazz wins, Mavs win -- we are #8 seed, Dallas #6, Utah #7.
We all three lose, Hornets still keep #6.
The Spaceships are good defensively, but we were just awful on offense: tight, frustrated, and demoralized. We had plenty of good looks, more than enough as Houston hovered only around 43% most of the game, but nothing fell from the perimeter. It can happen when you go on the road in a playoff scenario and are dog tired as are the Hornets.
At least, the first round takes some extra time. It's not as hectic a schedule, travel time is sliced, especially if we face a Texas team by getting 6th seed. The Hornets may be able to buy some rest just by getting into the playoffs, and that may make a huge difference to this worn out core of Butler, West, and Paul. I'm worried, but this team has enough fight to seize home court as a road underdog because it only takes stealing one win of the first two to tilt the series back in your favor.
chefcdb.livejournal.com #9
Niall Doherty
04/14/09 07:25 AM
@ chefcdb: All those scenarios are correct. If it ends in a 3-way tie, then it’s (6) Utah, (7) New Orleans, (8) Dallas.
Check the bottom of this page for all the tiebreaker info:
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html
www.ndoherty.com #10
cassiusdiode
04/14/09 07:35 AM
Von Wafer's full name is Vakeaton Quamar Wafer. I can see why he goes by Von
#11
fleur
04/14/09 07:58 AM
I love me some Excel!
Win-Loss Seed
Hornets Mavs Jazz Hornets Mavs Jazz
W W W 6 7 8
W W L 6 7 8
W L W 6 8 7
W L L 6 7 8
L W W 8 6 7
L W L 7 6 8
L L W 7 8 6
L L L 6 7 8
#12
fleur
04/14/09 08:00 AM
ok. that's not how i had formatted my previous comment. but, hope it still makes sense.
#13
gsmith
04/14/09 09:19 AM
Nice blog.
Check out my take on the very real possibility of the Hornets falling to the No. 8 seed at http://www.examiner.com/x-3619-New-Orleans-Sports-Examiner~y2009m4d14-Hornets-have-to-avoid-eighth-seed
If Utah beats a Lakers team that might be disinterested tonight, the Hornets could be in big, big trouble.
I've already linked this blog on my home page.
#14
YoungFella
04/14/09 10:16 AM
Keep in mind that Houston could conceivably tank against Dallas Wednesday night (if Utah wins) so that they'd avoid getting the Jazz in a 3 v's 6.
#15
Mikey
04/14/09 10:46 AM
Thank you, Houston Rockets. Thank you for making that game so far out of hand by the end of 3 quarters that Byron Scott had no choice but to rest his two main players for the whole 4th quarter. I was so afraid that I was going to see Chris Paul and David out there in the 4th quarter of a blowout loss. Thanks to Byron Scott as well for exercising a little reason.
As far as the playoffs go... its all about Tyson. If we have Tyson, I think we can get out of the 1st round, as long as we don't play the Lakers. Without Tyson, it's time to start setting tee times.
#16
YoungFella
04/14/09 12:21 PM
@ Mikey: You're right on. There is no doubt in my mind that Byron would have kept CP3 and DX in there had we been within 15 points.
I would add that I don't think there's any way we can beat Houston with our without Tyson. Their coaching, intelligence, hustle, and depth are just too much for us. In fact, I'd rather play the Lakers than the Rockets in that their style of play is much friendlier to the Hornets, and we could probably win a game or two and have some fun watching "pretty" games that would make us proud to be Hornets fans.
Again - we're in that boat of not even knowing whether or not to root for the Hornets on Wednesday night. I hate that so much. We would be better off losing and getting the Nuggets than winning and getting the Rockets.
#17
Niall Doherty
04/14/09 12:29 PM
@ gsmith: Funny, I found your post via Google and linked it up in our News section, then saw you posted it here. Anyways, I fixed that link for you.
Plenty more good reading via our News and Lagniappe sections today:
http://www.hornets247.com/news/articles
http://www.hornets247.com/news/lagniappe
www.ndoherty.com #18
Niall Doherty
04/14/09 12:33 PM
@ fleur: Thanks for that. So eight different ways it could shake out. Just one scenario has the Hornets ending up with the 8 seed, two scenarios where we end up with the 7 seed, and five scenarios where we hang on to the 6 seed.
The probability of falling to 8 isn't all that low though for the reasons mentioned by others above.
FYI: Jazz @ Lakers is on TNT tonight at 9:30 Central.
www.ndoherty.com #19
gsmith
04/14/09 06:44 PM
Thanks for fixing my stupid link error.
I meant it when I said this blog is excellent. I wish I had known about it before today.
#20
HornetVan
04/14/09 09:24 PM
We need TC to be healthy
If he is, we are good D wise down low and we have an instant scorer with an alley-hoop with TC/Paul
We are doomed without him
#21