Before I get to what the Hornets need, I'm going to spend a little time on what they have - and what they are worth. There are 10 players under guaranteed contracts for next year, and one player, Devin Brown, who(I believe, I'm struggling finding confirmation about this) has a player option to return next year at the league minimum salary. Ryan Bowen, Sean Marks and Melvin Ely will be free agents, so I won't be assessing them.
I've split the team into three categories: Bigs, Wings and Ballhandlers, and will spend a bit of time on each player. I prefer these three categories because the five standard positions have a lot of overlapping duties, but when you boil down a team, those are the three primary types of players you need - Big Interior Scorers/Rebounders, Wing Scorers/Shooters, and Ballhandlers to bring up the ball safely and initiate the offense.(I leave off defense because all of those guys should defend)
Today, I'll do the big men: Hilton Armstrong, Tyson Chandler, and Fluffy.
Hilton Armstrong
Contract: 1 Year, $2.8 Mil
Armstrong completed his third year as an NBA player, playing in 70 games and receiving 15.6 minutes per game, the most playing time he'd received since he'd entered the league. Most NBA players make their biggest leap in their third season, particularly onces that entered the NBA after having stayed in college longer than most. Statistically, Hilton made his leap - but unfortunately he leapt from Awful to simply very, very bad.
Offense: Hilton's offense - and confidence - did improved over last yeasr. His shooting percentage rose to 56%, a major improvement over last years 46%, and slightly better than the 54% he posted as a rookie. He also took more shots during his time on the floor, posting his highest usage rate since he entered the league. While all of that is good, he still had one major problem that typically precluded the Hornets from getting him the ball: He turned the ball over on 20% of his posessions. Happily, that number is an improvement over last year. Unhappily it moved him from being the most turnover-prone player in the NBA to the second most turnover-prone player in the NBA. Let that sink in. Only one player in the NBA was more likely to turn the ball over than Hilton Armstrong. Yeesh.
Rebounding: Last season, Hilton grabbed 13.1% of all available rebounds, putting him in the bottom 10 among centers. This season, he got worse, grabbing 10% of all available rebounds, putting him 3rd to last. It's a shocking number. Hilton is 6'10" and a pretty good athelete, but only 1 out of every 10 rebounds lands in his hands. That means the other 9 players, 8 of which are likely much shorter than him - and standing further from the basket - are rebounding at the same rate.
Defense: Last year, this was Hilton's claim on minutes. He was the anchor of a solid defensive second unit, and though his personal numbers were only so-so, the second unit was crushing defensively. This season, the second unit was not only bad defensively, but Hilton's numbers got even worse. Opposing centers averaged an All-Star PER of 21.6 against Armstrong, and a lot of that was due to Armstrong's inability to rebound - and sudden interest in fouling everyone he encountered. Per 48 minutes, Armstrong delivered 8.0 fouls, good for the 6th worst number in the league.
Summary & Trade Value: Hilton posted a PER of 10.7 for the season, which is what is known as "replacement level". That means that almost any center or power forward you can pull out of the draft or minor league will be able to duplicate his production. He's 24 years old - which means he might have a little improvement in him over the next three years, but since his leap was so small in his third season, it's not likely the improvement will make him much more than a 12th man on an NBA team. Armstrong's value on the trade market is likely to be as an expiring contract added to a larger trade to make it more attractive.
Tyson Chandler
Contract: 1 Year, $11.85 Mil, Includes Player Option for one more year at $12.75 Mil
Tyson Chandler suffered through a down year, playing about half of the minutes he had played last season after injuring his ankle in January. There were also rumors that he was struggling personally early in the season since his wife was pregnant and was living away from home with her family in California until the baby was born. Regardless, his season was bad - his worst season since the one that saw him get traded from Chicago to New Orleans in the first place. I will be using his full season numbers in this evaluation, and though that may seem unrealistic or unfair due to his injuries, I'll point out that his best stretch of play actually occurred post-injury, when he tried to come back too early and re-aggravated the ankle.
Offense: Chandler's offense was down quite a bit this year, though no one thing could be attributed to its decline. His turnovers were up 2%, his shooting down 6%, his usage rate down 1%, his free throw shooting down 2%, his assists down 3%. Any one of those things wouldn't have been too bad, but they all combined to reduce his offensive production by about 20%. The biggest difference for Chandler was he seemed to have lost his touch around the net. The number of dunks he got remained high, but his close shots - layups and short hooks - found the net at a much lower rate, dropping from 63% last year to 43% this year. His abilit to tip the ball into the hoop also declined, dropping from 43% to 23%. Those numbers make me wonder about Tyson's conditioning and lower body strength when he came into the season.
Rebounding: Typically his strength, Chandler also took a huge hit in rebounding this year. After six seasons amongst the top ten in the league at rebound rate, Chandler fell all the way to 38th this season, grabbing only 16.4% of available rebounds, down from 19.5% the year before. Most of the decline came on the defensive end, as Tyson grabbed the 12th highest rate of offensive rebounds, but fell all the way to 70th in defensive rebound rate, falling two spots behind teammate David West.
Defense: Despite Chandler's decline offensively, his efforts on the defensive end of the court did not regress. As usual, Tyson used length and positioning to allow centers playing against him to post a very poor PER of 14.6, but he was much more effective at it this season(something he was mastering by the end of last season) Last season, he allowed opposing centers to shoot 53% for 18 points per 48 minutes - this season they only managed 45% shooting from the field for 15 points per 48 minutes.
Summary & Trade Value: Despite Oklahoma City's rejection of him at the mid-season for his turf toe, the interest in Chandler has only cooled slightly. Regardless of his offensive limitations - there are two facts that remain: Rebounding is typically the most consistent statistic in basketball - he may have had a down year, but he's very likely to return to his previous numbers - and he's just entering his prime at 26 years old - he'll be able to play fairly well for the next four years. Tyson's contract is also fairly palatable, being pretty fairly priced - and only lasting for another two years at most if for some reason he doesn't recover from his ankle (or toe) problems.
David West
Contract: 2 Years, 18.9 Mil, Includes Player Option for one more year at $7.5 Mil
Over the last four years, David West has been about as consistent as any player in the league. His True Shooting Percentage has only varied by 2%. His Turnover Rate has varied by 1.2%. His Rebound Rate has varied by .8%. West is 28 years old - in his prime, and what The Hornets got from him this year will probably be what they get from him the next - and the next - and the next.
Offense: West continues to produce a steady stream of offense. Though his shooting percentage was slightly down this year, his free throw percentage was up, enabling him to produce about the same number of points per shot that had last year. Though he is pigeon-holed as a mid-range shooter, West's offense is quite a bit more versatile, and he can score in the post, from the elbow, and off the pick and pop with Chris Paul. 42% of his offense, in fact, was unassisted, a top ten number amongst all scoring big men in the NBA. In almost every category of offense - other than three point shooting - West registers as a good player. Not great - but typically about 10th to 15th.
Rebounding: West is an indifferent rebounder. His Rebound Rate were just a tiny bit lower this season than last, but he was 45th amongst power forwards last year, and is 45th amongst power forwards this year. It's really the only part of his game that he's below average.
Defense: Despite sometimes slow feet as a help defender, David West ranks as a good player defensively, and again, he's consistently that way. Last season, West allowed Power Forwards to post a PER of 15.7 against him. This season, they posted a PER of 15.4. Mostly, he does this by denying them a good shot. Over the course of the season, opposing Power Forwards shot about the same percentage as David West - but got off five less field goal attempts than he did per 48 minutes. He also rarely fouled, keeping opposing players off the line.
Summary & Trade Value: Outside of Chris Paul, David West clearly has the highest value of anyone on the team. West's versatility and skillset makes him capable of fitting into almost any team - and the biggest knock on him is he can't carry a team by himself. Among power forwards, due to age, there is probably only one player I'd be willing to trade him for.(maybe two, we'll get to that later) His trade value may have been a little depressed because of his struggles against Kenyon Martin in the playoffs - but the fact remains that he's a 2-time All-Star, a 20 & 9 guy who scores well - and has a contract that is well below market rate for someone of his ability that makes him even more attractive.
Next Up: Wing men Butler, Peterson, Posey, Stojakovic, and Wright
Feel free to lambast me if you disagree about any of these items. :)


16 inspiring comments post your own
Niall Doherty
05/19/09 01:09 PM
Looks like there was more you had to say about Tyson's defense that got cut off in the post.
I knew Hilton played poorly this year, but those numbers are incredibly ugly. All I can do is shake my head.
As for West, I agree with a lot of your assessment, but his poor help defense should not be understated. He gets away with it when he's on the floor with Tyson, but otherwise it's very frustrating to watch. Also, I don't think West can slot in with just any team. I don't believe he's a good fit for a running team at all. In fact, I attribute the Hornets playing at such a slow pace to having West as one of our primary scorers. He needs a slower pace to get up and down the floor and be effective.
Not that that's necessarily a bad thing, but I think a running team would be more successful under Byron Scott.
www.ndoherty.com #1
bigindian15
05/19/09 01:39 PM
I agree with Niall about West being slow, but hopefully other teams don't read this blog so they won't realize that if they want to trade a lot for him :D
#2
QueenBee
05/19/09 02:25 PM
I think our bigs need a better big man coach. It's not like Kenny Gattison was a fire big in his day. LMAO.
#3
Diane
05/19/09 02:40 PM
Thanks Niall - something got fixed - anyway
David West is my favorite Hornet, hope they keep him and he gets a little more energy next year.
I am disappointed with Hilton - I was happy the coach gave him more playing time but have been really disappointed with all that stuff Ryan talked about.
Hope he puts in the work this summer.
Ah, Tyson Chandler, almost with The Thunder - it will be interesting to see what happens next year.
#4
Chris
05/19/09 03:38 PM
I am putting it out there...
T-mac & Scola for D-West and Peja.
It's a way to fill the much needed 2 spot problem, with gaining solid defender at the 4 spot with decent post up Offensive skills. It is also the only way I can see unloading Peja's salary as Houston will want to unload T-Mac's salary if they are in love with Artest.
I would then envision Paul,T-mac,Rasual,Scola, and TC starting... Then we only have to solve the age old delima of the bench. LOL
#5
Andrea
05/19/09 03:52 PM
I seriously want to know who turns the ball over more than Hilton...
@Chris: That's a trade I'd LOVE to make in large part because of Luis Scola. I've become a big fan of his after watching him play this season/postseason. I wouldn't mind taking on T-Mac either since he's in the last year of his contract this upcoming season.....BUT I can't imagine Houston being onboard with this trade. If they can stay healthy (which is always their problem), they're a backup center and another big away from maybe winning a title in my opinion.
#6
QueenBee
05/19/09 04:15 PM
I can't imagine why anyone in the world would want T-Mac. The guy who wouldn't even go to New Orleans for the All-Star game. And not only that but the guy has too many issues so I don't understand why anyone would want him. It's obvious you all haven't been following him all that much.
#7
TheRonin
05/19/09 05:27 PM
@Andrea: David West does. If he puts that ball on the ground or basically doesnt just catch and shoot, its gonna get poked away.
He has slightly less T.O./game than CP3 who handles the ball twice as long as he does.
CATCH and SHOOT like MACHINE or PASS QUICKLY David!
#8
bigindian15
05/19/09 05:56 PM
@Chris: I would love that trade, and I honestly think it makes sense for the Rockets too because West fits their system, only they would have a very overpriced Peja coming off the bench if they resign Artest
@QueenBee: I wanna state for the record that I like Knee-mac, and I think he's gotten a slightly bad rap. He's still a great player, and he'll be in a contract year, so if all the selfishness is correct about him, then this is the year he'll explode to earn that next contract!!!!!!!!!
Also, Kenny Gattison may not have been a great big man, but you don't have to be a great player to be a great coach. Gregg Popovich, Chuck Daly (RIP) and Mike Brown never played in the NBA. Phil Jackson, George Karl, and Rick Adelman weren't great players. Just because some teams have Kareem and Patrick Ewing does not make THAT much of a difference. I don't think paying Ewing 4 mil to coach Hilton Armstrong would turn him into Dwight Howard
#9
Caleb462
05/19/09 06:27 PM
@QueenBee. He's an incredible talent and has had some truly incredible seasons... at his best he was a more productive 2 guard than Kobe's ever been. Even in the past couple of "down" years he's still been offering solid, just not spectacular production. The question is... will his injury issues ever resolve and how much does he have left in the tank? He's not particularly old yet so if the injury stuff does clear up he can still offer a lot.
Oh, and Scola is awesome. I really like that guy. Nice mid range jumper, some decent post moves... he always plays hard, defends, rebounds.
@NoDWest... West has the ball a LOT, and his turnover rates aren't bad.
David West has usage rate of 26% and a turnover rate of 10%. That's actually pretty solid.
neworleansbasketball.blogspot.com #10
Ryan Schwan
05/19/09 07:06 PM
Niall - I'm not sure what I cut off in that Defense section for Tyson - I'll look at the post I wrote off-line at work tomorrow and see what I did. Good points about West being useless in the open court.
Andrea - The player with a worst turnover rate than Hilton is Kendrick Perkins - the starting center for the Celtics.
Queenbee - I'm not too keen on blaming Gattison for Hilton's woes. Gattison developed David West and Tyson Chandler - and Hilton couldn't even crack the starting five of his college team until his senior year. There isn't much you can do for stone hands.
I don't want T-Mac. And trading for him doesn't really fix our salary problems. I am a big Scola fan though.
NODWest - David West's turnover rate is very, very good for the amount of scoring he does. Comparing his turnover numbers to Paul's isn't even close to being fair. Paul is setting all-time NBA records with his ability to handle the ball and not turn it over.
www.hornets247.com #11
Andrea
05/19/09 07:46 PM
Geez, I never would've thought Perkins turned the ball over that much...Good on Hilton though. At least he was second-worst and not the worst...I guess.
#12
TheRonin
05/19/09 08:29 PM
I would never knock David's offense. He shot is so true, it is the only reason why I wouldn't want to lose him. Yet, other than his catch and shoot and free throw ability he is a liability. Everyone knows that numbers can be misleading at times. You all can not honestly say that every time you see David put the ball on the ground and start to dribble backwards, you are not getting as nervous as when Jarett Lee dropped back to pass. I feel like I'm watching a tiger stalk my favorite pet.
Not to mention that if there was a hustle stat, he would rank in the lower half of the league. He is such a frustrating dichotomy. His blue collar workman like side is what converted him from a mid level forward to one of the best offensive forwards in the game. Yet that work ethic doesn't translate to hustle and defense, especially defensive help. This just points out my largest fear about him: he is a self-centered not team oriented player.
I think McGrady is self centered but at least he creates his own offense, which we need more than anything now. Without someone who creates their own offense all our offense will continue to depend on CP3. CP3 cant take many more seasons where everyone knows just to hammer him and you kill the Hornets in the long term. Scola give you team ball, hustle, defense, scrapping for rebounds, and an eerily reminiscent of D-West's developing jumper. I agree the problem would be that it would not help Houston's salary problem. But that sucking up Peja's junk salary would be the exchange for getting D-West.
Lets just get T-Mac for Peja. Then I can continue my love hate relationship with David West for many years to come.
#13
Timothy
05/19/09 10:24 PM
I like the analysis and stats, nothing biased. I do think that we need to upgrade at the 4 and 5, while West is a great scorer, he doesn't bang inside and combined with the fact that Chandler is limited offensively it gives teams a chance to really lock down on Paul like Denver did. Backcourt is also a problem, though Butler is a good shooter, his lateral movement isn't great and he's only getting older.
Maybe West/Chandler and Daniels expiring contract to Chicago for Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas, while packaging West/Chandler and Peja and future picks to Toronto for an unhappy Bosh. That'd give us a good low post scorer and two energetic guys in the frontcourt, a lockdown backcourt, and having Wright on the wing.
In addition, Memphis has a ton of cap space so we might be able to trade Mo Pete for a conditional 2nd round pick because they need bench help and we need cap relief and some youth. That means we'd be under the cap and have a pretty stacked team , especially if we can re-sign Pargo and Bass, along drafting a decent guard like one of the UNC pair of guards.
#14
joe
05/21/09 10:39 AM
I like the idea of trading mo to memphis, they would be likely to do it i think.
I also think that we talk about how untradeable peja is i think we can try and get him to sacremento just because of his past years there, the PR staff would love to have him back just like bobby jackson, I dont know how to do it cuz i havent looked at the trade machine but i think they would be open to it (for teh right deal)
And someone says that they dont think havin a kareem or ewing would help, are you kidding me? Dont you remember how kobe wanted bynum out of there and now hes the missin peice to the championship puzzle, and dwight now has some kind of post game thanks to ewing (he wasnt goin 20-10 in his first couple of years and ewing has helped him)
I think that we should try and get Karl Malone to try and help, hes a new orleans guy and is always around, i dont know for sure if he wants to be back in basketball or help teh hornets, but hes the closest thing we got to a local superstar and i think he could help chandler/west/hilton
#15
Apple
05/23/09 01:09 AM
I just love it when I see Fluffy's name. It really fits him, Ryan! He is definitely a Fluffy. I just wouldn't say it to his face.
Unfortunately, he was playing kind of fluffy, too. I hope that if he's still here next season, the summer healing period will bring back the DWest that we had for 2007-2008.
It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the team this off-season. I'm keeping my fingers and eyes crossed.
appleita.blogspot.com/ #16