To my mind, the most intriguing set of prospects in this draft are the ballhandlers. The draft is chock full of them, with Ricky Rubio, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Jonny Flynn and Brandon Jennings all ranking as possible lottery picks - so it's highly possible that a solid prospect who normally would go higher will drop to the Hornets as teams fill their need with those higher-rated players.
That's my hope, at least.
So here's the set of six ballhandlers that have a chance to fall to the Hornets at 21. I've ranked them according to my preference. The first two make me smile.
1. Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina
Knowing my propensity for stats - it should come as no surprise that Ty Lawson tops my list of point guards prospects. As some of you have noted, several posts have already gone up other places celebrating the statistical force Ty Lawson was last year in college. In case you haven't seen them, let me re-iterate it here: Lawson was the most efficient scoring guard in college basketball last year, posting a true shooting percentage of 66.4%. His marksmanship from behind the three-point line was an exceptional 46%, but despite his shooting prowess, only 31% of his shots was from that distance. Instead, Lawson drove freely to the basket, where he finished well and managed to draw free throws at the highest rate of any guard or wing prospect on my list. Those numbers alone make him intruiging, but as a distributer, he was also incredible. He sported the highest assists per 100 posessions of any player in the prospect pool, while posting the 2nd best turnover rate of any point guard. As a thief, he was the 4th best player among point guards. Rebounding and blocking? Alright, he wasn't so good at those, landing 16th and 19th respectively. Still - why could he be available? I've heard a lot of reasons: GMs think he was a product of the North Carolina system more than a talent. They say he's too small. They say he's only got one speed and can only go right. To me, I don't care. He's a championship point guard who put up insane college stats. His speed and agility numbers are very, very good, and he carries 190 solid pounds on his frame. Byron has also proven in the past with Pargo and Speedy Claxton that he likes playing two small blurs in the backcourt. Lawson could fit that role next to Paul perfectly.
2. Jeff Teague, PG/SG, Wake Forest
To me, Jeff Teague is a very nice combo guard prospect, offering the combination of ball-handling and scoring that I think the Hornets could really use off the bench. Teague posted the 5th best true shooting percentage among the ballhandling prospects at 63%, doing it on a nice mix of jumpshooting(44% shooting from three) and aggressive drives to the basket. In fact, according to DraftExpress.com, Teague was the best player in the draft at getting out in transition, which helped him land the 2nd highest number of free throws per posession behind Ty Lawson - and he knocked down those free throws slightly better than Lawson too. As an athelete, Teague is pretty amazing, posting great speed, agility, length and even strength stats at the NBA Combine, and those are born out by very nice shot blocking and steals numbers(though his rebounding was pretty lame). His greatest weakness was as a distributer, with his assist numbers 19th among ballhandlers - and his turnovers a high 17th despite his low number of passes. Regardless, I think his ability to get out and score in transition and on drives to the hole combine with his ability to knockdown perimeter shots to make him a pretty intriguing prospect as a backup shooting guard/point guard.
3. Eric Maynor, PG, VCU
I went to VCU, and still live in Richmond, so I have more direct knowledge about Maynor than I do most prospects. Maynor is a penetrator more than a shooter, and he's got a lot of slick ways to finish inside. He posted a true shooting percentage of 59%, using a decent free throw rate and those good finishing skills to keep his numbers at a high level despite having to score a lot, with only Stephen Curry and Ben Woodside beating him out in points per posession. Outside of his efficiency and volume and the 4th best number of assists per posession, Maynor was fairly average as a point guard prospect. Out of 21 players, he was 13th in 3PT%, 9th at FT%, 11th in blocks, 11th in steals, 11th in rebounds, 13th in turnovers. He's being billed as a player that will know his weaknesses and should be able to help now . . . but having seen him some I'm not sure he'll be able to handle the NBA until he's added some strength. I think right now the interior finishing he relies on so heavily would be hampered by NBA-level contact, and he might take a year to become an impact player, though I think in a year or two he could be pretty effective.
4. Darren Collison, PG, UCLA
Collison has spent 4 years at UCLA, and always seems to be overshadowed by his teammates. Statistically, he was a pretty solid player, however, posting numbers in the top half of his position at everything but rebounding and scoring rate. He may not have been a volume scorer, but the shots he did take were efficient, ranking 4th among point guards. Collison's efficiency is driven by his shooting skills, as shown by his great free throw shooting(89%) and 40% shooting from the three point line. His assists and turnovers are ranked 8th, his steals 9th. It seems like an intriguing package for a 21st pick - but I don't see him as a tremendous fit for the Hornets. They really do need a ball-handler in the backcourt willing to score with that second unit. To me, Collison is more like a Steve Blake complimentary piece. Solid and able to hit the open shot - but probably not capable of high-volume scoring.
5. Nick Calathes, PG, Florida
Calathes has signed a contract with a Greek club, but remains in the draft with the hope of being drafted and coming back from Europe later once he's proven himself more. Calathes is a tough competitor, with a motor that helped him be the second best rebounder as a ballhandling prospect.(Behind Tyreke Evans). He also posted nice steal and blocked shot numbers, which indicates that despite the rumors that his athleticism is suspect, he's still pretty solid. As a scorer, he had a little better than average efficiency, but most of that was due to his ability to knock down threes, as he was fairly poor at drawing free throws, and downright bad at making them, ranking 19th out of 21. As a distributer, he had a high rate of assists 2nd, but combined that with the third worst rate of turnovers, making him a good, but not great distributer. In all, I think he has a chance to make the NBA one day - but I can't see him being more than a 6th or 7th man sort.
6. Patrick Mills, PG, St. Mary's
Mills does have a nice reputation - a lot of due to the solid games he put together against Team USA last year in the Olympics - but while those few games may have been impressive, at St. Mary's he's been less than stellar. Mills likes to shoot. Scoring, apparently, isn't quite as important however, since he posted the 19th worst efficiency number behind the 16th worst three-point shooting. Despite his inability to hit threes(33%) half of his shots were from that distance - which limited his best ability, shooting free throws. Despite hitting free throws at a 5th best clip of 86%, he wasn't particularly aggressive going to the hole, drawing the 4th fewest free throws per posession amongst the 21 prospects. As a passer, he was weak, posting the 3rd worst assist numbers with an average turnover rate. His steals were the 5th best, which was nice - but his rebounding was the worst among all prospects. I know there's a lot of love for Jannero Pargo out there - but if we want Pargo, I'd rather take Pargo, not draft Mills who appears to be his potential duplicate.
So that's it. To me, my top 4 players(among those on the lists on my last three posts) are DeJuan Blair(unlikely to be there), Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, and then Marcus Thornton. If we got any one of those four, I think the Hornets would be in position to get immediate help at one of the things on my list of what they need.
Who do you have your heart set on?


24 jaw-dropping comments post your own
Andrea
06/19/09 03:25 PM
Lawson- I agree with many that he was a product of UNC's system. Not only that, I wouldn't want to have 2 little guys at the PG spot.
Teague- Like the fact that he's a combo guard. We could really do some things with him.
Maynor- Iffy on him
Collison- No
Calathes- Saw him play a few times. I like his competitiveness and his size. I don't think he's a 1st round talent though. Maybe we could invite him to play on our summer league squad (not sure how that works)
Mills- I'd be fine if he was our choice, but he shoots too much. Unless he's making it the majority of the time, that's gonna be a problem especially with the lack of scoring on our 2nd unit.
My top 4:
DeJuan Blair, Marcus Thornton, Tyler Hansbrough, and Patrick Mills
My ideal guy is DeJuan Blair but I agree that he probably won't be there. His best asset is his knack for rebounding. At his size (Rasual Butler is probably taller than or the same height as him), I'm not sure he'll give us much around the rim but I'm fine with that. If not him, we should go for Thornton.
#1
DrewS
06/19/09 03:43 PM
I think Sam Young is a sleeper that would fit well with the Hornets' 2nd unit, or possibly even the first unit as long as Peja's aging process seems accelerated these days. It would require the Hornets getting rid of some of the dead wood at the 2/3 spots though: Mo Pete, JuJu, Posey, 'Sual, Brown. One or more will have to call someone other than New Orleans home come October.
#2
Tobi
06/19/09 03:49 PM
Another SF? I would agree with Teague. He could fit and produce, at least when the coaching staff keeps his confidence up........
#3
Caleb462
06/19/09 03:55 PM
I'm with you on Lawson. I don't understand why he isn't a lottery pick. If he falls to us at 21, the Hornets have got to take him.
As that HoopsAnalyst article I mentioned points out... GMs and draft analysts have a very bad track record when it comes to evaluating point guards and where they belong in the draft. John Stockton and Tim Hardway were 14th picks... Steve Nash was a 15th pick, Mark Jackson an 18th, Rajon Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Sam Cassell, Scott Skiles, Jamaal Tinsley, Terry Porter and Tony Parker all went in the 20s, and guys like Nick Van Exel, Ramon Sessions and Mo Williams were all 2nd rounders. So if teams want to pass on Ty Lawson just like they passed on all those guys... I'm down.
neworleansbasketball.blogspot.com #4
corndeaux
06/19/09 04:02 PM
Teague would make CP happy. He is on record as saying he is pro scorer. Although I think anyone else who could actually create a shot would make him happy too.
Lawson, Teague, and Mills would all be giving us what Pargo did- maybe more and definitely cheaper. If Bower is looking at the same things Ryan is, Pargo looks like a redundancy after the draft.
#5
joe
06/19/09 05:07 PM
Ty Lawson - I like him alot, but i think he is too short to play with cp at the same time, really the only knock on him that i can think of
Jeff Teague - I like him, but i read somewhere that he likes to take alot of threes (dont know if this is backed up by stats) sometimes out of rhythm ala JR Smith and we know how that kind of thing resonates with Scott
Maynor - Reminds me alot of Daniels, pretty much a veteran guy who wont do the flashy thing but the effective one, and right now we need something explosive to fix our stagnant bench
Collison - Dont know too much about him
Calathes - I dont really care for him
Mills- Too out of control, he may have scored alot of points on the us team but they still lost by i dont know how much but thats because he got his, but he didnt get others really involved
Jrue Holiday is my dream point at this point, can play off guard with cp, great defender, pretty good offensively, and with this many points in the draft he could fall to us
@DrewS: I also like Sam Young but we do not need another 3, Peja, Posey and Wright are already fighting over the minutes there and we dont need another guy to take minutes from wrights development, if it was a different time i would totally agree
My Top 4
1) Blair
2) Thornton, id much rather go with signing Pargo, who is sure thing (sort of), we dont know if guys like teague and mills can recreate pargos offence like we know pargo can, and also with thornton we know hes gonna work hard every game because hes playing in front of his home crowd 41 times a year, and if you dont think cp tries to find that 110% everytime we go to charlotte than your mistaken
3)Holiday
4) Tyler Hansborough/ Jeff Teague (Tie)
#6
Dodgerblue15
06/19/09 08:08 PM
Would you want Iverson, as in Allen, if he signed for the mid level? Kind of intriguing. AI and Paul back court. Just a thought.
westcoastslant.blogspot.com #7
bigindian15
06/19/09 09:05 PM
@Dodgerblue: too expensive
I love Teague, but I'm kinda iffy on him because Wake Forest crashed and burned in the first round of the tourney...I'm still bitter, I had them in the Finals in my bracket. Other than that, my list goes Blair, Teague, Meeks, Young
#8
alltheway123
06/19/09 11:48 PM
i dont think we should go with a point guard.. i think we should go with a shooting guard and try are best to get pargo back.. and suddenly are bench is alot deeper..
#9
MD43
06/20/09 12:11 AM
As an Aussie I'm obviously bias but I would love us to pick Patty Mills. All he needs to do is work on his shooting (or alternatively drive the ball) and he would be a starter on at least the struggling teams. If we made our bench play a run and gun offense if we get Pargo back (seeing as they struggle to create anything playing half court offense or any offense with structure, a run a gun offense wouldn't be too bad if we use Butler with it rather than Posey) and allow Pargo to play as a SG rather than a shoot first PG. Plus Mills is already an improvement on Daniels.
Put his low assist numbers down to the fact that the rest of St Mary's is very average (and on that note, so was the Aussie Olympic team). He (and St Mary's) were going great until he got injured.
#10
Caleb462
06/20/09 12:27 PM
"Plus Mills is already an improvement on Daniels." I wouldn't bet on that. Mills has average to poor numbers in every category except for steals. I mean, sure it's possible he'll turn into a solid role player but I think much better choices will be available.
neworleansbasketball.blogspot.com #11
BeesGivingEffort
06/20/09 05:34 PM
@Ryan- Anyway to get this info to the Hornets brass so we don't end up with BJ Mullens?
#12
Caleb462
06/20/09 06:07 PM
LOL HornetsGone... if we end up with Mullens that will be a tragic failure. I'd like to assume that Bower and company know more about basketball than I do, but if they draft Mullens it will be clear that they don't.
neworleansbasketball.blogspot.com #13
Ryan Schwan
06/20/09 06:09 PM
Yeah, next time Bower and I meet at Chuck E. Cheese to play in the ball pit, I'll let him know. :)
Really - I wouldn't worry about it. Mullens doesnt appear to have been invited to one of the Hornets workouts - and he is classified as a project. The Hornets aren't interested in drafting a project.
www.hornets247.com #14
bigindian15
06/20/09 06:16 PM
Apparently the Pistons have promised Mullens they'll pick him with no. 15. Well, then.
#15
Mikey
06/20/09 10:11 PM
@ Dodger: As of right now, the Hornets cannot offer a full MLE for anyone without shedding some salary. I'm not all that excited about throwing a full MLE on a 30-something guard who's now got back problems, and has clearly lost a step. The Hornets did that two years ago in signing Morris Peterson.
Blair is definitely my #1. I'm sure there is someone out there that actually believes Blair will fall to the 21st pick, I just doubt he or she resides on Earth.
#2. Thornton
#3. Lawson
#4. Teague
#16
joe
06/20/09 11:31 PM
@mikey: Chad ford has Blair falling to us, mainly because of his knee problems, but I don't see him falling that far just due to his knee so I wouldn't put much into it, especially with the jazz drafting for a 4 right before us
agree with your list just swap maynor with lawson and I have no problems with it
#17
SaveYourBoredom
06/21/09 10:32 AM
I was listening to the radio this morning and they were talking about the Celtics possibly trading Rajon Rondo. The guys on the radio were talking about how crazy it'd be for the Celtics to trade a "Top-5" point guard, then they debated if he actually is a Top-5 point guard, and then they tried to name the top five point guards and could only come up with Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Apparently they forgot about the existence of Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Devin Brown, et al. It's amazing how narrow sports jouranlists' memories can get.
ANYWAY, who are the top-ten point guards in the league? It's more difficult than you might think.
What do you guys think? [Exclude guys like Allen Iverson and maybe Gilbert Arenas who aren't necessarily point guards.]
#18
Ryan Schwan
06/21/09 11:23 AM
@SaveYourBoredom - Your inclusion of Devin Brown on that list was unexpected and hilarious. Nice. My top 10:
Paul
Deron Williams
Tony Parker
Chauncey Billups
Rajon Rondo
Steve Nash
Devin Harris
Andre Miller
Jameer Nelson
Jose Calderon
Next year I doubt I'll be able to keep Rose off the list. Nelson, if he plays the next couple years like he played early this season will climb.
I'm also vindictively happy that I can finally leave Baron Davis off that list.
www.hornets247.com #19
bigindian15
06/21/09 01:28 PM
I'd put Rose on the list ahead of Calderon because Calderon couldn't get his team to the playoffs even with Bosh and Bargnani, in the East. Fail.
Baron Davis, when healthy, is top 5, no matter how much some of us may hate him.
Don't be so sure about knee problems not sinking Blair. Brandon Roy dropped all the way to #6 in his draft even though he was clearly the best player in the draft, just because he had knee problems. Actually, he fell to number 6 then was traded because the T Wolves are just that stupid. If people are afraid of Blair's knees, he could well fall really, really far. Darrell Arthur fell forever because of a kidney problem that was never really explained well last year.
#20
Ryan Schwan
06/21/09 02:17 PM
Health has nothing to do with Baron's ability. It's his personality - and at this point in his career, he's proven he's a millstone as much as he's a spectacular talent - and I can't credit him with hire.
Rose gets credit, but Chicago has a lot of depth on that team. A lot.
As for Toronto, Bargnani is one of the major reasons they didn't make the playoffs. He's awful.
www.hornets247.com #21
joe
06/21/09 05:27 PM
@bigindian15: In a normal draft it might make him drop alot where there were alot more options but in this draft a team might realise that their isnt much talent left and just might take a risk on blair (and ive read its a small one anyone), its not like i dont want him to fall, i would love him to fall to us
#22
big rich
06/22/09 06:28 PM
New Orleans is looking in all the wrong places for the next point guard to add depth for Chris Paul. There is one very skilled "ball handlin', offense leadin', pure scorin', point guard that isn't in the draft and his name is DANTE STIGGERS. He was the MVP of the Belarusin Team in the EURO LEAGUE, the BELARUS: Minsk 2006 and 1st Team All League. Teams are mising out on this true point guard. Graduate of Southern Miss, 6'-3" DIAMOND IN THE EORP LEAGUE that could have a n awesome career in the pros if given a chance, a work out and a shot. WAKE UP NBA....our quality players are being overlooked coming straight out of college after 4YRS., going over seas, improving their game and skipped over so the NBA can pick someone else from their "favorite" countries that have produced star players in the NBA today.
NBA OWNERS - you a missing the mark on this young man and their are plenty of teams in need of a quality, solid player to orchestrate their offense and they just aren't looking in the right places.
Check the article:
http://www.eurobasket.com/Belarus/basketball.asp?NewsID=161926
Eurobasket.com All-Belarusian League Awards 2008-09 - May 30
Belarus: Minsk 2006
GIVE HIM A WORKOUT NO......you won't be dissappointed!!
The best player of the league this year goes to American guard Dante Stiggers. It was not unanimous vote as another American guard from Minsk-2006 (Hurt) and even competing Vitalyur best player Shustau were very close. Hurt was even more impressive in the play-offs. But we believe that Stiggers' overall performance assured his place as the best player in Belarusian league 2008-09. This year awards were dominated by guards. As it was not easy to select who were top one, it even harder to not-include other good guards in the top teams. American Hurt was one of the candidates to the best player in the league and eventually he landed in all-league 2nd team since his place was taken by Shustau. So even No.3 player in the league could not make it to 1st team. Another example is Edgars Cunda, who was selected the best Bosman player in the league and to all-league 2nd team did not even make it to All-Imports team. Here two guard positions were taken by American duo (Stiggers-Hurt) from championship Minsk-2006. Another sample is very impressive guard Pacevich, who despite great performance being selected to all-domestic team, was not included to 1st or 2nd league team. The problem was also with Korshuk. He used to play on both power forward and center positions. Previously he was selected as best forward in the country, while this time we gave him best center award. The most problematic choice in the 1st team was including Maksimov among top 5 players. It does necessarily mean he was one of best 5 players in the country. There weer for sure many better guards in the league. Also we could find better power forwads. Additionally OZAA where Maksimov played did not really challenge too much Minsk-2006 or Vitaluyr. But his strongest point was that ...there were no better small forwards in the league after all.
All-League 1st Team 2008-09
Stiggers
Korshuk
Shustau
Yafremau
Player of the Year: Dante Stiggers (188-G-82) of BK Minsk-2006
Guard of the Year: Dante Stiggers (188-G-82) of BK Minsk-2006
Forward of the Year: Andrei Maksimov (200-F-83) of OZAA Osipovichi
Center of the Year: Dzianis Korshuk (202-C/F-78) of BK Minsk-2006 * played also at power forward position
Domestic Player of the Year: Maksim Shustau (184-G-86) of Vitalyur Minsk
Import of the Year: Dante Stiggers (188-G-82) of BK Minsk-2006
Bosman Player of the Year: Edgars Cunda (196-G-84) of SBK Grodno-93
Coach of the Year: Andrei Krivonos of Minsk-2006
1st Team
Dante Stiggers (188-G-82) of BK Minsk-2006
Maksim Shustau (184-G-86) of Vitalyur Minsk
Kanstantsin Yafremau (201-F-86) of Vitalyur Minsk
Andrei Maksimov (200-F-83) of OZAA Osipovichi
Dzianis Korshuk (202-C/F-78) of BK Minsk-2006
#23
MD43
06/23/09 01:51 AM
"I wouldn't bet on that. Mills has average to poor numbers in every category except for steals. I mean, sure it's possible he'll turn into a solid role player but I think much better choices will be available."
I disagree. He is actually an scoring threat unlike Daniels and his defence is better. Passing and rebounding (which hardly matters) would be the only areas I'd give Daniels an advantage, but Mills has never really been surrounded by any talented offensive players, not that he really would be at NO anyway I suppose.
#24