Lots of people will tell you that exhibition games are meaningless; a team's record in the preseason is a poor indication of how they'll perform in the regular season. Is that really the case?
We dived into the numbers from every Hornets' preseason and regular season. Here's what we found.
Win Percentage
| Season | Preseason | Regular Season |
|---|---|---|
| 1988-89 | .286 | .244 |
| 1989-90 | .500 | .231 |
| 1990-91 | .625 | .305 |
| 1991-92 | .375 | .378 |
| 1992-93 | .444 | .537 |
| 1993-94 | .500 | .500 |
| 1994-95 | .285 | .610 |
| 1995-96 | .500 | .500 |
| 1996-97 | .250 | .659 |
| 1997-98 | .500 | .622 |
| 1998-99 | .000 | .520 |
| 1999-00 | .625 | .597 |
| 2000-01 | .571 | .561 |
| 2001-02 | .625 | .537 |
| 2002-03 | .250 | .573 |
| 2003-04 | .625 | .500 |
| 2004-05 | .375 | .219 |
| 2005-06 | .375 | .463 |
| 2006-07 | .286 | .476 |
| 2007-08 | .500 | .683 |
| 2008-09 | 1.000 | .598 |
| 2009-10 | .250 | n/a |
That data in a graph:
As you can see, there is some correlation between the two outcomes - but nothing that is fixed in stone. I looked around for studies about the correlation between pre-season and the regular season and found an average correlation of .34 between NBA's pre-season and Regular season. A correlation of 1.0 would mean they are an exact match. A correlation of 0 means that they are completely independent - i.e. you can draw nothing from pre-season at all. A correlation of -1.0 means that they are exactly opposite.(I.E. a team that wins 25% of its games in the preseason would win 75% of its regular season games)
For the football fans among you, it looks like there is a .25 correlation between football's regular and pre-season. So the NBA's pre-season is slightly more predictive, but not much.
Here are a bunch of other stat comparisons for you to consume as well. In essence, they tell much the same story as the record - but they are still interesting on their own.
Points For
Average points scored by the Hornets.
| Season | Preseason | Regular Season |
|---|---|---|
| 1988-89 | 101.7 | 104.5 |
| 1989-90 | 102.8 | 100.4 |
| 1990-91 | 107.4 | 102.8 |
| 1991-92 | 113.8 | 109.5 |
| 1992-93 | 115.9 | 110.1 |
| 1993-94 | 112.6 | 106.5 |
| 1994-95 | 110.3 | 100.6 |
| 1995-96 | 100.9 | 102.8 |
| 1996-97 | 97.5 | 98.9 |
| 1997-98 | 99.0 | 96.6 |
| 1998-99 | 76.5 | 92.9 |
| 1999-00 | 103.0 | 98.4 |
| 2000-01 | 94.1 | 91.9 |
| 2001-02 | 87.4 | 93.9 |
| 2002-03 | 83.5 | 93.9 |
| 2003-04 | 93.9 | 91.8 |
| 2004-05 | 94.6 | 88.4 |
| 2005-06 | 93.8 | 92.8 |
| 2006-07 | 94.3 |
95.5 |
| 2007-08 | 100.4 | 100.9 |
| 2008-09 | 99.9 | 95.8 |
| 2009-10 | 93.3 |
n/a |
That data in a graph:
Points Against
Average points scored by opposing teams.
| Season | Preseason | Regular Season |
|---|---|---|
| 1988-89 | 109.6 | 113.0 |
| 1989-90 | 99.6 | 108.2 |
| 1990-91 | 102.0 | 108.0 |
| 1991-92 | 119.4 | 113.4 |
| 1992-93 | 122.0 | 110.4 |
| 1993-94 | 112.1 | 106.7 |
| 1994-95 | 113.7 | 97.3 |
| 1995-96 | 101.9 | 103.4 |
| 1996-97 | 103.4 | 97.0 |
| 1997-98 | 97.8 | 94.6 |
| 1998-99 | 87.0 | 93.0 |
| 1999-00 | 100.9 | 95.8 |
| 2000-01 | 88.7 | 89.8 |
| 2001-02 | 85.3 | 92.9 |
| 2002-03 | 92.4 | 91.8 |
| 2003-04 | 90.9 | 91.9 |
| 2004-05 | 93.6 | 95.5 |
| 2005-06 | 95.6 | 95.6 |
| 2006-07 | 101.9 | 97.1 |
| 2007-08 | 101.4 | 95.6 |
| 2008-09 | 84.9 | 94.3 |
| 2009-10 | 103.3 |
n/a |
That data in a graph:
Points Differential
The difference between the average points scored by the Hornets, and the average points scored by their opponents.
| Season | Preseason | Regular Season |
|---|---|---|
| 1988-89 | -7.9 | -8.5 |
| 1989-90 | +3.2 | -7.8 |
| 1990-91 | +5.4 | -5.2 |
| 1991-92 | -5.6 | -3.9 |
| 1992-93 | -6.1 | -0.3 |
| 1993-94 | +0.5 | -0.2 |
| 1994-95 | -3.4 | +3.3 |
| 1995-96 | -1.0 | -0.6 |
| 1996-97 | -5.9 | +1.9 |
| 1997-98 | +1.2 | +2.0 |
| 1998-99 | -10.5 | -0.1 |
| 1999-00 | +2.1 | +2.6 |
| 2000-01 | +5.4 | +2.1 |
| 2001-02 | +2.1 | +1.0 |
| 2002-03 | -8.9 | +2.1 |
| 2003-04 | +3.0 | -0.1 |
| 2004-05 | +1.0 | -7.1 |
| 2005-06 | -1.8 | -2.8 |
| 2006-07 | -7.6 | -1.6 |
| 2007-08 | -1.0 | +5.3 |
| 2008-09 | +15.0 | +1.5 |
| 2009-10 | -10.0 |
n/a |
That data in a graph:
So what does it all mean? It means that there is a loose correlation between pre-season and regular season, but that there is enough difference in the results that teams regularly differ greatly.
In other words, I'd ignore the record, and instead focus on how individual players seemed to fit into the rotations.
Note for those still wanting a silver lining: Okafor projects to be either the 2nd or 3rd most productive player on the team based on various advanced statistics. Diogu also projects to have the same sort of impact, though most likely in limited minutes. Missing guys that important would tend to have a major impact on a team's wins, even before we consider the fact that their minutes were used primarily by . . . Hilton Armstrong.
4 life-affirming comments post your own
420ftJesus
10/27/09 11:20 AM
Good data, good analysis, good exposition.
Par for the Ryan-course.
Where do you get all this wonderful data so easily? Or is it harder than I assume it is for you?
Not that it matters, but what was going on in the 1998-1999 season's preseason? Lockout related?
Considering the digitization in the preseason win percentage data, I'll just ignore it. The other stuff looks like it says alot about the character of the team: slow, defensive, thoughtful. You can see something happened in the 1997-1998 season or so. Maybe that's when Muggsy left?
Interesting.
#1
Niall Doherty
10/27/09 12:04 PM
1998-99 was a 50-game season because of a lockout. Only two preseason games played. The Hornets played the Hawks twice.
We got this preseason data from the Hornets media guide. You'd be amazed how much detail is in there.
1997-98 was the season after the Hornets won 54 games behind Glen Rice, Anthony Mason and Vlade Divac. I loved that team. I can't recall exactly what went wrong after. I think 96-97 was a peak year for each of those three guys, and they started to decline after. Getting killed by the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs didn't help either.
www.ndoherty.com #2
420ftJesus
10/27/09 04:06 PM
Got it:
Step 1 - Start a Blog
Step 2 - ?
Step 3 - Get the Media Guide
#3
Niall Doherty
10/28/09 01:05 PM
We're not allowed talk about Step 2 :-/
www.ndoherty.com #4