If I had been told what Marcus Thornton's numbers would be (13 ppg on 46% shooting, 39% from deep in 18(!) minutes) before the season started, it would have been pretty obvious who the Hornets' starting shooting guard should be. Particularly since last year Devin Brown was the whipping boy for everything wrong with the Hornets. Well, Devin and Hilton. And Julian. And Peja. And Chandler. And . . . well anyone not named Chris Paul.
However, this season there is something to be said about the idea of continuing to start Devin Brown and using Thornton as a sixth man. Despite Brown's propensity for charges, badly run fast breaks, and horrible drives, he plays strong defense against the bigger, slower, shooting guards in the league and has been surprisingly good at spreading the floor for the first unit. For a starting group that features West, Stojakovic and Collison(or Paul) as primary scorers, Devin Brown isn't bad as a fifth option in a pinch.
Starting Brown has allowed Thornton - who heats up faster than a 14-year old discovering his first porn site - to come off the bench when two of the primary scorers sit down. That has kept the pressure from falling entirely on the one remaining primary scorer, allowed Thornton to abuse second-tier talents, and has paid remarkable dividends. In the minutes Thornton has played, the Hornets have averaged 1.14 points per 100 posessions, which is .07 higher than the team's average, and the biggest offensive impact of anyone on the team.
It seems sensible then that Bower will continue to start Devin Brown, evaluate if he is contributing this game or not, and then replace him earlier or later with Thornton for a burst of explosive firepower. There are also a number of you who have made comments that you are in agreement with the idea.
I've decided, however, that Thornton needs to start when Chris Paul returns for one reason only: Darren Collison.
The reality is that three of the Hornets best five or six players are guards who can only play the guard positions. (Thornton is a bad rebounder as a shooting guard, as a small forward he'd be a disaster) Paul, of course, is going to command 36 or more of those minutes. If Devin Brown also gets 20 minutes as a part-time starter, that leaves only 40 to split between two of the most effective players on the team. That's simply not good enough with the way Collison and Thornton have been playing.
To me, the the Hornets should bench Devin and run a staggered, three-man guard rotation of Paul, Thornton and Collison. Paul and Thornton play 20 minutes together, Collison and Paul play 16 minutes together, and Collison and Thornton play 12 minutes together. If having two small guards in Paul and Collison on the floor at the same time is hurting the Hornets, then pull in Devin Brown when needed. That rotation keeps two excellent ball-handlers on the floor at all times, amps up the pace and aggressiveness, and gives away less defensively than one would assume since both Paul and Collison are very solid defenders despite their size.
What do you think? Thornton as 6th man, or starter?


27 intriguing comments post your own
Caleb462
11/24/09 04:16 PM
Hmm... interesting, for whatever reason I hadn't even really about all that.
I really, really, really like Thornton off the bench. Its so refreshing to have a stellar offensive talent as a reserve. However, you may be right... starting him may be a necessity when CP comes back so that Collison can get the minutes he has proved he deserves.
neworleansbasketball.blogspot.com #1
Jeremy
11/24/09 04:16 PM
As long as Thornton receives the crunch-time minutes, it doesn't matter if he is the 6th man. M. Ginobili, J. Terry, & B. Gordon are perfect examples of being a great 6th man that have the confidence from the coaching stuff to get the proper end of half & end of game minutes. Thornton should and will get the same treatment when CP3 returns.
#2
jochbe
11/24/09 04:32 PM
@ Jeremy--I don't think you are really grappling with the issue Ryan presents. Maybe it would help to change the question: "Should Devin Brown start when CP3 returns?" If he does, that is going to eat up minutes in the guard rotation (unless you start him but then don't give him any minutes beyond the first few). Who doesn't get the minutes, then? If you are right, and "Thornton should and will get the same treatment when CP3 returns," then the minutes have to come from Brown or Collison. And if Brown starts, those minutes are most likely going to come from Collison, which hardly seems right, on the basis of his play...
So then Brown shouldn't start. But the obvious person to start in his place would be Thornton (thus the dilemma as Ryan posed it). But then we lose Thornton's spark of the bench...
This last point shows that it is a real dilemma, and it does matter if he is a 6th man or a starter--because as last season painfully proved, we need scoring in the second unit. Isn't that lost if Thornton starts? The hope for a way out of the dilemma, I suppose, is that Collison provides that spark off the bench, but he might not be the type of "microwave" player we need in that position...So I think it is, in fact, a tough question!
#3
QueenBee
11/24/09 04:40 PM
I'd really hate to lose Marcus' spark off the bench. In the however many games we've had since Scott's firing, our bench has outscored all other opposing benches.
#4
QueenBee
11/24/09 04:40 PM
Thornton even seems to ignite Posey because even he's been getting in on the action as of late.
#5
Lancelot
11/24/09 04:56 PM
I think Collinson could almost rotate into that 6th man/spark off the bench role. He has been running things with the second unit well.
I would argue for Thornton to start onside of CP, with Dwest, Mek, and Peja. As was said, there can be a three guard rotation with CP, Collinson, and Thornton, and it's not like we have any shortage of guards should someone get into foul trouble or need rest. Those minutes will, and should go to Devin Brown, as he's proved himself much more worthwhile than everyone else to this point.
More perplexing to me, than the guard minutes, is how things should be divided up at the power forward/center positions behind Dwest and Mek. Darius Songalia has proved himself very worthwhile, but I believe he needs to be used in limited minutes. We've seen Bower play serious small ball, with Songalia at center, and Posey at power forward, but there's no way that's going to fly against larger team (Spurs, Lakers, etc).
#6
NOH_Domination
11/24/09 05:04 PM
In crunch time both the Lakers and Spurs play small.... Lamar and Bonner at the 4 respectively. I think if Thornton started that Collison and Bobby Brown can bring a spark off the bench....not Devin Brown.
#7
Caleb462
11/24/09 05:36 PM
If Diogu ever gets on the floor, he could be the bench scorer the team needs if Marcus shifts to the starting lineup. Diogu can fill it up too... close to 20 points per 36 minutes last two seasons (although that's only 59 games), 17.7 points per 36 for his career. And he does that at a very efficient rate... 1.40 points per shot for his career.
I really hope we get to see us some Diogu sometime soon.
neworleansbasketball.blogspot.com #8
QueenBee
11/24/09 05:45 PM
@Caleb462, I'm with you. I'm curious to see what Diogu will bring to the club.
#9
SaveYourBoredom
11/24/09 06:44 PM
I like your idea, Ryan, that Thornton should start once Paul comes back, and then Collison becomes a sixth man of sorts.
I can't wait to see what this team is like once CP3 comes back, because of the emergence of the rookies and the new "system".
#10
Mikey
11/24/09 06:45 PM
In the NBA, it's about minutes, and not about starting a game. (Allen Iverson, are you reading this????) Thornton can still get his minutes and floor time with CP whether he starts or not. I say keep it like it is for now. I'm just enjoying the toughness this team is displaying of late.
#11
Jib
11/24/09 07:05 PM
I don't think it matters if he starts or not, as long as his minutes stay high, much like Ginobli, Gordon, etc. I would prefer him starting with Paul so they can spread the floor more since collison's jumper isn't quite solid right now.
Then the bench will have to use Collison and one of the browns, depending on how defensive matchups would go.
#12
BeesGivingEffort
11/24/09 07:14 PM
Just a fun factoid, Thornton currently owns the 18th best PER in the NBA.
#13
downtowndave78
11/24/09 07:29 PM
I think we should keep it like it is. It is working, so why change it? We all know that our biggest weakness in the past 3 years (minus Pargo) has always been our bench. The benches play is the biggest surprise of the season and we should let it continue to grow.
Although, the idea is very enticing, and I would be excited if I heard the news.
#14
saZam
11/24/09 08:17 PM
I think D Brown should start with limited minutes. He has proven to be actually good at times this year w/the starting unit, and I also like how Bower pulled him out fast in the Heat game realizing Brown was not good that night. I don't beleieve Collison can be the scorer from the bench thorton is. I like the idea of collison and thorton running the second unit. I don't think D Brown will be any good with the second unit. We all know how horrible he can play.
#15
spiz83
11/24/09 09:31 PM
does anyone have any idea on the status of Ike Diogu?? or has heard anything at all?
#16
TheRonin
11/24/09 09:51 PM
I think Ryan is onto something. I have an interesting tweek to it, maybe it was even what ryan was thinking.
Start CP3 point and Thornton 2 Guard. Then when Collison comes off the bench, sit Thornton making CP3 the 2 guard. With the way CP3 is shooting and the way the new spacing style offense is suited to Collison's style of play with using his speed to create scoring opportunities for others, that offensive spark off the bench would actually be by proxy of Collison coming in and CP3 picking up the scoring. Then after a bit bring Thornton in for CP3 and he would take over the 2 guard naturally. Then rinse and repeat.
This would allow for CP3 and Thornton to be on the court in crunch time to keep a sick shooting squad of CP3 (59.4 FG 65.5 3pt), Buckets (46.6 FG 39 3Pt), Peja (39 FG 40.4 3Pt), Posie (39 FG 39 3Pt), and Dwest (43FG). I am just proposing this as a scoring crunch lineup as we all know Peja and Posie's numbers are a bit misleading as they are just now heating up after terrible starts, and David West WILL find his shot again... Funny we are saying 43% is a shooting slump. LOL
#17
TheRonin
11/24/09 09:59 PM
@BeesGivingEffort: "Thornton factiod" -- Yep and he now has the highest PER of any Rookie. Not to mention that he is the 10th highest scorer per 48 minutes with more than 10 games right behind CP3.
The game tomorrow is going to be quite a treat. The resurgent Bucks and Hornets behind the two highest PER rated rookies in the NBA. If you throw in Collison's sick performance so far this season I would say watching tomorrows game will allow you to say at the end of the season you have seen three of the top 6 rookies of the year in this one game.
#18
StefanC
11/24/09 10:15 PM
43% shooting definitely is a slump for a big man. David West has always been at 50+ %. The nickname fluffy has officially been taken away from DX until he gets his shot back!
#19
TheRonin
11/24/09 10:53 PM
Yeah but David is a bit more of a jump shooter than a big under the basket who should be dropping layup in all night. David historically is a 47 - 48% FG shooter, so 43% for his style of play is not that far off.
#20
nikkoewan
11/25/09 05:59 AM
i think the better solution here is keep devin at starting even when CP3 is back. The more important sequence is put Thornton at the starting 2 guard when IKE starts to produce, and he WILL produce. Because until IKE goes back, Thornton and Collison are our sparks of the bench. Put them Thornton in the starting five and that leaves Collison alone to spark the bench. If ike were back we'd show a lineup of:
CP3 - Thornton - Peja - Dwest - Mek
Backup guard: Collison
Backup SF: Posey
Backup PF/C: Ike
Backup C/PF: Songaila
Spot Minutes Guard: Devin
Spot Minutes PF/C: Sean Marks
thats a strong lineup. :D any comments?
#21
mW
11/25/09 08:50 AM
Excellent point, Ryan, about the minutes. If only 3 guards in the rotation, I agree. If 4, though, I question what Mo would look like In the new system. Has to be better than Devin.
www.hornetshype.com #22
420ftJesus
11/25/09 08:59 AM
The problem as stated is one of economics, and an interesting one, at least for a consumer of numbers such as myself.
Great discussion.
Abstractly the solutions posed are all good ones, but in reality a mixed strategy should be employed, as the game theorists call such things.
I tend to agree that all minutes are equal, so being the starter is of little value outside of strategic purpose. Since wholesale changes aren't made typically, the concept of off the bench is a little muddy to me.
I can see this, for example: start the 'classic 5' of Chris, Devin, Peja, D, and Emeka. These are not our top 5 guys by some measures, but 3 of them are 'unarguable' starts for lots of reasons. I think this is a good thing and like them starting.
It's a decent drop off today from D and Emeka to their backups, regardless of how good they are compared to players we don't have.
Not starting Chris is insane.
I propose that starting Devin and Peja is good for the following reason: they might be good 'tonight'. If one or both isn't good, limit the minutes by subbing in Collison and Thornton and rotating people appropriately, e.g. Chris to 2 guard as suggested above. The best case scenario is both are playig well and we... sit Chris. Not alot, but enough to make even out those long days so he can be ready for the playoffs, should we make it.
I'm talking 2 minutes a half of difference here. He should enjoy a couple
minutes of rest and observation of the opponents and his teammates, who in this case are doing well.
This also makes your rotations as unpredictable as Devin Brown for the other team to key on. This is good on that higher level chess match coaches play.
Example: Devin is playing well and Peja is playing badly, so you sit Peja and move Devin to the 3, as he can hit 3's and can't rebound, too, then put in Marcus at 2. If Devin is doing badly, put in Marcus or put in Collison and move Chris to the 2, splitting the strategies equally.
How can any coach, conceive of, much less gameplan against, a strategy keyed off of Devin Brown for all intents and purposes?
It's a sound economics solution, I think, to an economics problem, but it may be insane. I'm just saying, basically, let the more inconsistent guys play if they do well and yank them if not AND find that out early. Use them when you can. It spreads the minutes, changes the strategy, and provides good highlight film for guys you are shopping around.
#23
Ryan Schwan
11/25/09 09:03 AM
While I'd love to see Ike come in and produce, I'd have a hard time planning anything around him until he practices successfully for a full week.
Just to clarify my rotation, because some of you seem to think we'd need Devin Brown or another guard to fill out the minutes - this is how I'd see the rotation occuring:
Thornton and Paul Start.
At minute 5 Collison comes in for Thornton, Paul slides to SG.
Beginning of 2nd quarter Collison and Thornton start.
At minute 6 Paul enters and Collison goes out.
That gives Paul 18 minutes, Thornton 17 minutes, and Collison 13 minutes in each half. It allows Thornton to start the game and help the Hornets burst out of the gates, and he starts the second quarter after having gotten a good rest, helping the second unit keep up the attack.
www.hornets247.com #24
pinoyballah
11/25/09 11:28 AM
right now, i believe keeping thornton as sixth man is the best decision. he provides the spark we need for the 2nd unit. if he starts with our current lineup, i doubt we will get any production from our bench.
when cp3 comes back, keep devin brown at guard(primarily for his defense) and have buckets sub in 4-6 mins into the game. I feel like moving thornton into the starting lineup is a bad idea especially since you have 3 guys that will be taking majority of the shots (cp3, west, peja). since peja/brown are inconsistant, pull them out on their off night and put thornton in at sg.
#25
Diane
11/25/09 02:30 PM
I love CP3, Collison and Thorton in together at various long times. Its seemed that when Pargo and Paul played together it really gave the team energy.
I think it is time to sit Devin Brown, he is falling back into his old ways. That or I agree Bower should hank him if he just doesn't have it.
#26
TheRonin
11/26/09 01:58 AM
Ryan, don't know if you saw but this made the 9th man in Skeets 10-man rotation today on yahoo sports.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/The-10-man-rotation-starring-another-Thunder-Tw?urn=nba,204785#comments
#27