With all the free agent signings going on around the league, Hornets fans feel a little left out. Considering the team went 37-45 last year and Chris Paul wants to win right away, the team needs to make big moves right away, right? Wrong.
People seem to be forgetting that the Hornets are going to be a pretty damn good team this year without doing much of anything this summer. Don't forget, after Byron Scott was fired the Hornets went 18-10 in the 28 games in which Chris Paul was healthy.
Let's briefly look what the problems were last year and what can be done to remedy them. Some of the problems just went away by themselves.
- Marcus Thornton and Darren Collison were stuck on the bench for much of the season. Given that the two of the team's top five players weren't seeing much time in favor of Devin Brown, one can assume that they actually would have been even better had the rookies been given more time to shine early in the seaseon. It wasn't until March that Thornton surpassed 30 minutes per game despite his excellent season. That won't be the case this year and for good reason.
- Emeka Okafor missed training camp and the entire preseason with an injury, and was obviously not in sync with the rest of the team on both ends of the floor for much of the year. He wound up having the worst season of his career in terms of production and was limited by Bower to under 29 minutes a game despite the clear lack of a capable backup center for most of the year. This year he's healthy and will participate fully in both training camp and the preseason. Undeniably he will be more prepared and consequently his production will increase.
- For what seemed like months the team functioned without a backup point guard because of their proximity to the luxury tax line. Collison and Thornton gave it their all as the teams only real guards, but they were overwhelmed and the team struggled as a result. If Chris Paul is healthy that won't be the case next year. Despite Luther Head failing his physical, the team is one easy move away from solidifying their back court. The answer is quite simple really, and it's no coincidence (fine maybe it is) that he has come to be known as The Phoenix. Rasual Butler is still sitting on the open market and with each passing day it appears that his expected salary becomes smaller and smaller. Two and a half million might just get it done, but even if they have to give him a one year deal worth three million it would be worth it to get back a fan favorite who can obviously handle duties as the 4th guard.
- Jeff Bower, a guy with no NBA coaching experience, was directing the team. Not only that, but he was thrust into that job on the fly after Byron couldn't get the squad to play hard. Bower did a solid job, but there is very little doubt that Monty Williams will have the team more prepared, especially on defense.
- The team was without a capable backup center until Aaron Gray came aboard. As we all know, Aaron Gray is a Monster. I kid, but he really did perform fine in limited minutes last year (Insert JCS joke here). He's in the process of being re-signed and should (my opinion) prove to be an adequate backup for Emeka. It wouldn't hurt to grab another 7 footer for the minimum out of summer league, but I haven't been too impressed with the quality of them so far. There's normally a reason when a true 7 footer can't find a job and it isn't that they can't find shoes for him.
- Ike Diogu, who was supposed to be a high reward kind of guy, was injured before the season began and never saw a minute. No word on whether or not he will be back, but the team drafted Craig Brackins. Kevin Arnovitz thinks he's could be pretty good in the future and let's be real- The team only need ten minutes out of he and Songaila anyway since DWest is still the same reliable PF that he always is.
- There wasn't a capable backup SF. Mo-P wasn't getting it done, Julian was awful and Posey is really just a backup PF at this point in his career. This year though the Hornets have Julian Wright who could see big improvements now that Monty Williams is the coach, and Quincy Pondexter who has looked good so far in summer league. I wrote about him on the ESPN's Daily Dime:
"The first-round pick continues to impress on the defensive end. He's active off the ball and has shown the capability to stay in front of his man, something the Hornets desperately needed last season on the perimeter.
Under the tutelage of new coach Monty Williams, the Hornets are expecting an immediate contribution from Pondexter. Offensively, he's a quality finisher and capable of cutting to the hole or hitting a pull-up jumper at an NBA level. Before too long, he should be in contention with Julian Wright to receive substantial minutes in relief of the aging Peja Stojakovic.
- Oh, and this guy named Chris Paul was hurt for 37 games. Perhaps you've heard of him. He's pretty good and he should be healthy this year.
So all that went wrong and the team still won 37 games in a tough Western Conference.
Here's the depth chart heading into next season with Rasual Butler.
PG- Paul, Collison
SG- Thornton, Butler
SF- Peja, Pondexter/Wright
PF- West, Songaila, Posey, Brackins
C- Okafor, Gray, Songaila
Is that a title winning lineup? Of course not, but it's still good enough to be in the middle of the playoff chase race until mid season when good players tend to be available for the low price of expiring contracts which the Hornets clearly have plenty of. If you compare this team to the 07-08 Hornets you might find that they are actually better, especially if Okafor can bring the fire.
Peja (15), West (8), Songaila (5), Butler (3), and Julian (3) add up to 34 million in expiring contracts. Since you can take back 125% of total salary, even if you are over the cap, the Hornets could potentially take back 42.5 million dollars in contracts. That's more than enough to get back 2 max contract guys. Even if you exclude David West's deal the team can take back 32.5 million, enough for quite a bit of talent.
So you see, there is no need to spend money right now just because the Hornets can. There will be players available later in the season and by then they will have a much better idea of what the team needs in order to improve. At the moment we just don't know how good the Hornets are going to be and who on the team will fit with Monty's schemes.
People are screaming for Brewer, but the Hornets already have three guards. If Paul and Thornton play 35 each (as they should), that only leaves 26 total minutes left for Collison and Brewer. PLUS it will take a multi year deal to get Brewer, so the team will leave itself with even even less flexibility for the all important summer of 2011. The last thing they want to do is to be hamstrung by a role player.
I realize I'm just rambling now so let me wrap this up. I don't want to see any multi year deals done by the Hornets just to potentially appease CP3 or the fan base. Remember James Posey?
Edit- Luther Head's agent is disputing the failed physical


22 masterful comments post your own
Ryan Schwan
07/14/10 10:40 PM
I agree with you that free agency isn't the way to improve this team. It needs to be trades. However, i think that getting Brewer would help the team out a lot. He's a defensive guard who is very efficient in limited minutes. Those are exactly the types of player you want coming off the bench for 20 minutes a game.
And I won't repeat myself any more about Head's agent. :)
www.hornets247.com #1
HiMyNameisSteven
07/15/10 12:00 AM
Somewhat agree... The problem isn't that we won't be a decent team if we hold strong, the real problem is that if nothing remotely positive is done, our boy, CP3 will not be so happy. It may be tough getting a trade this offseason in our favor since teams like to see what kinda team they can currently put out there and how players gell. However, i think the teams main goal should really be directed towards being able to get Danny granger.
The pacers drafted Paul George, a Danny Granger clone. Drafted Lance stephenson, likely a 2 guard who i actually think will be very good. And the pacers desperately want a point guard.
Hence once the trade dealine comes around and the pacers see the potential of their young guys and they see their need of a pure point guard to play with these guys, i think the hornets have a great shot to get granger.
Here is the ideal trade which i really think could get it done once they feel like they can open up cap space and get a great young point guard to play with their young guys plus hibbert ( i love him 7-3 stretches d)
Collison-Peja-1st Round pick this next year for Granger
Not positive how the salaries match up the pacers may need to put a throw in into the equation to match it up. But this would make chris really happy and really put us in contention for a top 4 seed in west.
Point guard will need to be addressed for a back up but I'd live with this.
#2
Mark
07/15/10 12:28 AM
I'm not going to say 'pretty damn good', but rather 'solid.' We need an offensive scheme (see Mike Brown's failures) other than Byron Scott's Patented Let-Point-Guards-Do-Whatever scheme (speaking of which, did anybody catch coach Scott wanting the Cavs to push the ball?).
Line-ups also need to be addressed. Who knows why Mek played sub-30 (health? Ineptness?), but we need to establish less line-ups of DX and CP overlapping. Obviously this makes little sense talent-wise, but we generally stall when the line-up has no direction or leadership. Predrag and Pose are no longer heavy minute players, and reducing CP and DX's minutes have been on my priority list since 2008. So pray that coach Williams has a knack for developing rookies though.
Steven: About Lance Stephenson: he clearly has the talent, but everyone's questioned his ethic. He was underachieving in college, maybe overconfident, and that doesn't bode well for most scouts. With him it's the question of focus, rather than skill.
www.dogpile.com/ #3
QueenBee
07/15/10 12:52 AM
Anybody hearing what Emeka's been up to during the offseason? We're saying he's healthy but is he really? I think he probably is but we don't hear much about a few of our players and how their offseasons are going. Has he been in New Orleans or his hometown Houston?
#4
mcp2989
07/15/10 01:02 AM
Mark: "Predrag and Pose are no longer heavy minute players, and reducing CP and DX's minutes have been on my priority list since 2008."
Check out the interview Monty did at the last summer league game. He said he will force CP3 to sit out of some practices to rest his body, and that he already talked to him about it. Said he learned it from Pop himself. Good to know that he already communicated with Paul. You want a coach that's up front with the players. I like everything this guy's said so far. But all of that means nothing if he doesn't get us some W's.
#5
jbwbizzo
07/15/10 10:01 AM
I agree with HiMyNameis about trying to pry Granger from the Pacers, as hard as that may be. I bet the Hornets are trying to figure that out now. We should move Collison while his stock is high. I doubt he will be happy to continue to be a bench player when he's proven he can be a starter (this is of course assuming that CP3 will stay healthy and Collison will come off the bench, but that's a BIG assumption right now).
I actually think Brewer would be a much better pickup than Butler. Brewer, strangely, is undervalued right now, and he's a baller. He can even play the 3 if necessary. A starting guard line-up with CP3 and Butler with Thornton coming off the bench as the gunner seems like a very formidable line-up. Yes, Brewer wants a multi-year deal, but if you can lock him into a multi-year deal that is cheaper than it should be, what's the risk?
#6
ketirav
07/15/10 10:19 AM
Great article and I couldn't agree more. Most fans seem to be thinking very short-sighted at the moment. Players are getting way overpaid in this FA period.
www.reboottherepublic.com #7
urgmasdaughter
07/15/10 12:37 PM
Kind of on the same topic: What would happen if there is a lockout in the 2011 season? We will have all of ducks in a row, plenty of cap space, developed our rookies and one last year to convince CP3 to stay and then no basketball that year....Won't that be very bad timing for the Hornets? I feel like that has a lot to do with the sense of panic as well...
#8
BeesGivingEffort
07/15/10 01:48 PM
Why is Rasual Butler on your depth chart? Did I miss something? I've been looking all over for his signing with us and haven't found it.
#9
urgmasdaughter
07/15/10 02:22 PM
@BeesGivingEffort - Rasual was a hypothetical his still a FA
Joe mentioned it in the Luther Head bullet point:
"Rasual Butler is still sitting on the open market and with each passing day it appears that his expected salary becomes smaller and smaller. Two and a half million might just get it done, but even if they have to give him a one year deal worth three million it would be worth it to get back a fan favorite who can obviously handle duties as the 4th guard."
#10
Jayjay2The1
07/15/10 02:43 PM
Yeah we should try to get rasual, like for real
www.facebook.com/jehosafeph #11
MaxALM
07/15/10 04:51 PM
@mcp: great info there. that makes me feel alot better. I couldn't have been more frustrated about how much Bower played Paul during the season, quite recklessly I would say. playing him 40+ minutes after returning from ankle and knee injuries, respectively, did NOT help. Glad to see Monty is thinking ahead and being responsible.
#12
Nithenz
07/15/10 04:58 PM
Well said. As i pointed out in the journal i wrote last night i am very confident of the chances we have next year, and getting a top 4 seed is not that weird, just need to win the division, i know its the harder one, but its like we signed or big FA in CP3 that almost didnt play last year. with him we looked really nice and this group can only do better this year.
Hypotesis: of the 37 games CP3 missed we win 17-20 ( we should have more than half with him) 37 + 17 = 54 wins.
With awfull defence, no CP3, no C at 4ths Qs and a GM as a coach we manage 37 wins, this is for sure a 50+ wins if healthy, with coach and some small adition.
#13
420ftJesus
07/15/10 05:48 PM
You got it Nithenz.
Basketball, for all the athleticism and showmanship, come down to just a few plays in a game. There are games each season you aren't going to win, and games you aren't going to lose for whatever reason. The rest are close, in play games. An inbounds pass, a free throw, a defensive rebound can seal the game. Being able to execute in those moments are what separate the playoff teams from the rest. Of course, over half the teams make the playoffs, so it's not exactly an exclusive club.
To get through the playoffs takes a little something else, but let's take this one step at a time.
We have the pieces we need to get to the playoffs. Let's focus on getting into the second round.
Step one, get Emeka going the way we hope he can or find a way to trade him.
#14
420ftJesus
07/15/10 05:53 PM
This is a big signing . . . if you go by size . . .
http://www.wwltv.com/sports/Hornets-re-sign-center-Gray-98550199.html
Gray is back. I couldn't find anything that knew the length or terms, but I'm guessing berlin's early info was close: 2 years, close to the minimum.
1 backup down . . . I wonder if there is a physical pending . . .
#15
Mark
07/15/10 07:05 PM
mcp: Thanks for that info, I never read that. Popovich is, in my opinion, one of the greatest (if not the greatest) coach we have in the league, so I have no problem trying to mimic him. Obtaining success, however... might be a little more problematic, haha.
www.dogpile.com/ #16
JCS
07/15/10 09:51 PM
1st Bullet - Marcus and DC inflated their stats more than they did win us games. Having them on the bench for the first nine games did not hurt this team at all. Bowser as the coach did, b/c under his "leadership" we constantly lost to the worst teams in the league and we didn't make the playoffs. Marcus and DC did not make a difference - no disrespect.
2nd Bullet - If Meka doesn't bring it this season, he needs to be traded ASAP, IMPO.
3rd Bullet - Umm, Rasual ain't a PG, but we can thank Bowser for losing him and "gaining" guys like McDaniels and Bobby Brown.
4th Bullet - Bowser did a solid job handing out bad contracts, hiring porcelain players, tanking the team out the playoffs, and giving our team captain an Empire State of Mind*.
5th Bullet - NBA = No Blobs Allowed (insert laughter)
6th Bullet - Bracky picked up were Ike left off and got a sprained ankle. Evidently, Bowser forgot to put a no skating board policy in his contract. J/k All jokes aside, Ike better bring it this season or he needs to be traded ASAP
7th Bullet - I don't care what anyone says, I like JuJu. But if whatever reason, he doesn't fit the bill and Q-Pon gets injured like all of Bowser's picks*, then Matt Barnes, Derrick Brown, and Thaddeus Young just might be available.
8th Bullet - CP3 is key
PS - Thanks for the shout out.
lovethegame.tumblr.com #17
Ryan Schwan
07/15/10 10:00 PM
Now I just think you're trying to be contrarian, JCS.
You say Collison and Thornton did not make a difference, but you like Juju?
Oh, and Ike isn't on the team.
www.hornets247.com #18
JCS
07/15/10 10:12 PM
@Master Jedi
The point I'm trying to get across is that we lost a lot of games with them. So much so, that we didn't make the playoffs. Just something to keep in mind.
And yes, I like JuJu, but under the "tutelage" of Bowser he didn't stand to deliver. Aaron Gray on the other hand, just doesn't stand to deliver. Period.
?Donde estas Ike?
lovethegame.tumblr.com #19
Ryan Schwan
07/15/10 10:47 PM
The Hornets only had a one-year deal with Ike. They'd have to go after him and resign him to retain his services.
What's really odd about last season? The team didn't actually collapse past and fall out of contention until Peja Stojakovic went down at the end of the season. I guess that's partially because then we played Julian and Posey more, but still. The weirdest part - it wasn't our offense that crashed and burned when Peja went out. It was our defense. Who knew a slow-footed non-rebounding small-forward with a bad back would be the last straw?
www.hornets247.com #20
420ftJesus
07/15/10 10:51 PM
Chris is it. Everything revolves around him.
Emeka needs to go if he doesn't bring it by MLK day, even if it takes DC away. We'll need the cap space come 2012 if we don't have him as one of our '3'.
Marcus and DC are assets that just may age well, and they certainly bring value for the dollar. We need bang for the buck, not necessarily pure bang. Peja getting injured, I think, cost us our playoff run, given that CP3 was out. We were just too thin. We'd've had no chance at the playoffs without DC and Marcus. Of course, we had a shot at breaking our 58 point record should we have made it.
Juju isn't bringing value here, but hopefully we can swap him for another `potential' guy that might just need a new scene/system. I'll put him on the same time table as Emeka, but if we can't do a straight deal or dump (Rasual style) then hold onto him.
#21
420ftJesus
07/15/10 10:53 PM
Peja isn't terribly demonstrative on defense, but he's wiley. He gets some steals, but really I think the bad guys sort of avoid him. He seems to be in the right position, on offense and defense, more than the other non-guards.
I joke that he's a defensive monster, but there's something there.
#22