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After the trade, Ryan did a comprehensive breakdown of Ariza’s statistics over the last couple of years. Charles Barkley has a saying about stats, “they are like a fine woman in a bikini- nice to look at, but you don’t see the whole story.” This is especially true in basketball, where every team is completely different with regard to their systems and the talent they already have in place. That makes it extremely difficult to take what we know of a player from the past and project what he will do with a new team. Not only is it likely that the amount of shots a player gets will vary from team to team, but the type of shots he will get varies as well. 

A playmaking point guard, a once-in-a-generation wing player, or a dominant big man who demands double teams all make the game much easier for the other four guys on the court, and usually this gets reflected in their overall statistics.  In recent years Steve Nash has rejuvenated the careers of Grant Hill, Tim Thomas, Jared Dudley, and Channing Frye by getting them the looks that they could not get in other systems with average point guards. Before that he was responsible for helping relatively limited offensive players like Shawn Marion and Quentin Richardson achieve career years that led to them getting paid like superstars. With Nash, even guys like Raja Bell became 15 PPG scorers.

The hope is that CP3 can have the same kind of effect on Ariza this upcoming year in New Orleans. Last season, Ariza did not have the luxury of an elite playmaking point guard that could set him up for easy buckets and because of that his field goal percentage suffered. However, Houston did make a trade in February that took some of the scoring duties away from Ariza, as Kevin Martin became the focal point of the offense, along with Aaron Brooks. Before the Martin trade, Ariza was averaging nearly 15.5 shots per game, shooting 37 percent from the field and only 28 percent from the three point line. After the trade, Ariza was far more efficient. His shot attempts went down to only 11.5 per game and his shooting percentages went up- 43.5 from the field and nearly 39 percent from three. In essence, Rockets fans saw two different Trevor Ariza's last season, and Hornets fans have to wonder which one they are getting.

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So the Hornets are the proud owners of two snazzy new acquisitions; Marco Belinelli and Trevor Ariza.  As always, I turned to the numbers and this is what I found:

Marco Belinelli

Marco entered the NBA with a bang, scoring 37 points in a Golden State Warrior summer league game and on the strength of that game, was regularly mentioned as a rookie with great potential.  Unfortunately, that game proved to be a bit of a fluke, and Belinelli has struggled to get extended minutes on poor teams in Golden State and Toronto.

As a scorer, Belinelli has one real talent - knocking down three point shots.  He recognizes this, taking about 40% of his shots from deep, and converting them at an above average rate for a guard.   Sadly, his scoring abilities elsewhere are lacking.  He shoots below the league average at the rim, from mid-range, and more importantly, from a step or two inside the three point line, showing that once he puts the ball on the floor, the results are likely to be suboptimal.

As a Raptor, Belinelli contributed to some of their best lineups, as his ability to stretch the floor made him a favorite target of both Jose Calderon and Chris Bosh when they needed an outlet.  He also improved their defense by 3 points per posession every time he stepped on the floor.  Unfortunately, that may be damning him with faint praise.  The Raptors were historically bad last year on defense, so his presence made them go from "cover-your-eyes" awful to "wow, they actually needed two passes to get a layup that time" bad.

All that said, Belinelli is a fine 2-guard off the bench.    He may be a lousy rebounder(and boy is he), but he turns the ball over and assists at an average rate, and has a clearly defined role as a shooter in which he can help the team.  He's still 24, so if he follows the standard career arc of an NBA player, he may improve over this year and the next.

My take on the trade?  I'll take a player with a clear, defined role over what Julian has unfortunately "developed" into.  And I hope Julian Wright takes this change of scenery to Toronto and does something with it.  I always pulled for him.

Marco Belinelli General Stat Pack:

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Since the season ended, the #1 question has been which PG is being traded and when. It looks like we finally have our answer. ESPN is reporting that a four team trade has been finalized that will send Collison and Posey to Indiana, Troy Murphy to the Nets, Courtney Lee to the Rockets, and Trevor Ariza to the Hornets. 

From the Hornets point of view, it is a move that accomplishes multiple objectives. It upgrades the small forward position instantly, both offensively and defensively. It also sheds the second worst contract the Hornets have on the books, and finally it shows Chris Paul that management is going all in on him as their point guard and leader of the future. Of course Paul can opt out in two years and leave the team with no floor general, but the front office is showing that they aren't going to be held captive by fear and "what-ifs."

Financially, the Hornets will pay Ariza slightly less than they would have paid Posey over the next two years and will save approximately 1.5 million this year if you include shipping out Collison. Of course that money will likely be spent on whomever the new backup point guard will be, so the savings is negligible in reality. 

On the court, the upgrade from Posey to Ariza will be rather substantial on both ends of the court. Ariza is only 25 and averaged 15 points per game in his first full season as a starter last season. Defensively, he is both good as an on-ball and off the ball weakside defender who can fill passing lanes and get the Hornets out in transition with frequency. 

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This is the 2010-2011 Hornets Season Schedule. Most notes are at the bottom, but pay special attention to the first 17 games of the season. Only three are against teams which had losing records last year. The NBA didn't do the Hornets any favors early on.

This team and coaching staff is going to be tested early, and failure is not an option (had to say it). A bad start from a young, relatively inexperienced coaching staff could spell disaster for the prospect of competing for a playoff spot this year, especially with Paul's uncertain future. But if the team can come out of the gate hot, and keep their heads afloat in what is sure to be a wild Western Conference, then there's a chance they can make a real splash this year and provide a compelling case that New Orleans can win basketball titles, too.

Enjoy-

        OCTOBER       
Date    Day    Opponent      Time            TV
27      Wed    Milwaukee      7:00 p.m.   
29      Fri       Denver          7:00 p.m.   
30      Sat    at San Antonio 7:30 p.m.   

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As Monty Williams continues assembling what appears to be a talented group of assistants, one name remains missing. Former Hornets assistant Robert Pack, credited by both Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton as crucial in their development last season, has yet to sign with a basketball team for the coming season.

If Monty's brief track record of cleaning house is any indication, there won't be an announcement that Pack is returning. The Hornets have yet to retain a single coach from last year, in what is likely an attempt to cleanse the locker of of any lingering resentment from last year, and an effort to eliminate the mentality from the Bower era.

While Monty Williams isn't the first coach to completely clean house, and won't be the last, it seems unwise not to retain a coach as obviously talented and familiar with the team as Pack. The New Orleans native is a 13 year NBA veteran and has coached for only a single season. Despite being new to the coaching game, Pack played a huge role in the development of the rookies, both of whom gave the Hornets considerably more than was expected.

Earlier this summer I asked Marcus Thornton about Robert Pack and all of a sudden Thornton, who had been rather emotionless up to that point, seemed genuinely interested in the conversation.

Joe: I wanted to ask a little about Robert Pack and the role he played in your development.

Marcus: Ah man, he was huge. Me and DC will both vouch for him. I hope he's back because he was a big part of our success last year.

Joe: Anything specific?

Marcus: He was just there when we needed him. He brought us in hours and hours before practice and just made us do what we had to do to get better. He was a player once, so he knows what he's doing out there.

The Hornets had no comment when asked about Pack. What do you think? Is it worth it to bring back Robert Pack, or should the team continue it's complete house cleaning?