Alright, it's time to drop a full stat-pack on you. Over the weekend I've been collecting various stats we can use to evaluate the value of the picks traded and the players and their production in college. So let's get rolling.
The Draft Pick Swap
The Hornets traded the 11th pick and Mo Pete's Veteran Towel Waving skills for the 21st and 26th picks. So, before we even get to the players selected with those picks, let's simply evaluate how the picks historically perform. In other words, is 11 for 21 and 26 worth it?
The following chart shows the historical results for each pick to obtain a class of player. I.E. the 11th pick gets you a 13% chance at a Star(A ranking), a 9% chance at a starter(B ranking), 22% at a solid rotation player(C), a 43% at bench filler(D), a 9% chance at crap(F), and a 4% chance your guy won't ever play for you.(N/A) Then I follow with the peak from each pick, the bottom from each pick, and the salary a player taken at that pick would make.
| Draft Position |
A |
B |
C |
D |
F |
N/A |
Peak |
Bottom |
Salary |
| 11th |
13% |
9% |
22% |
43% |
9% |
4% |
Andris Biedrins, Reggie Miler |
Todd Fuller |
$1.77 Million |
| 21st |
4% |
22% |
22% |
22% |
30% |
0% |
Rajon Rondo, Michael Finley |
Pavel Podkolzine |
$1.09 Million |
| 26th |
9% |
13% |
13% |
26% |
35% |
4% |
Kevin Martin, Vlade Divac |
Ndubi Ebi |
$899K |
So mathematically, the chance of getting ONE good player(an A or B) is now about 45%. Compare that to the 22% from the 11th pick, and I'm good with the trade already.
Now we shouldn't get carried away. The chance that both players will be good is only 5%, and to illustrate just how much of a crapshoot every draft is, I should point out that there is a 34% chance that both players will end up as a D, F or N/A, and be completely useless. Yes, that's a one in three chance. And yes, that sounds horrible, but we still must go a little further and note that if the Hornet's had kept the 11th pick, they'd have a 56% chance the one player they got would be useless.
To summarize, the trade essentially doubled the Hornets' chances at getting a good player, and almost doubled their chances that the draft won't be a complete waste. So even if Mo-Pete's cadaver hadn't been included in the trade, this was a good move for the Hornets. Now let's move on to the players actually selected:
The Selected Players
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