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When I put together the Taking Offers for Paul post, there was a behind-the-scenes discussion with Henry Abbott of Truehoop about just how talent-bereft I thought his offer was.  I opened it by saying that as soon as I saw Marcus Thornton involved in the trade, I didn't even really care what the Hornets were getting back, the deal was dead in my mind.

The question, though, is whether I'm not just a little nuts to think that way.  There is a lot of sentiment amongst Hornets fans that Marcus Thornton is untouchable.  But should he be?  Let's break him down.

General Stats

Taking his season as a whole, Marcus Thornton graded out to be a bit above average.  If you look at his monthly stats, he did clearly have an generally upward trajectory(after a dismal December) but it's probably better to take his season as a whole to set a basis for what to expect next year.  Larger sample size and all that.  Here are his advanced stats, and the average stats of a shooting guard in the league who played 20 games and at least 15 minutes a game.

Player	Usage	TS%	Ast Rate	TO Rate	Reb Rate	NBA Efficiency	WP48	PER
Marcus Thornton	25.3%	55%	9.8%	6.6%	6.6%	18.28	.092	17.4
League Average	20.2%	54.3%	16.3%	9.8%	6.6%	15.89	.087	13.7

That is fairly solid production, and it's better than any Hornet shooting guard has produced since Eddie Jones. (apologies to David Wesley)  I still worry at times, however, that my pleasure of seeing the ball in Thornton's hands is more because I was starved of good wing play than anything spectacular on Thornton's part.  So, let's dissect his game, and and see if Thornton is a truly exceptional player.

Shot Selection

My favorite part about Thornton's game is his perpetual motion and ability to cut to the basket, receive and finish in traffic.  One of the main reasons West's assist totals doubled was purely due to Thornton receiving that bounce pass from the high post.  But was he exceptional at this?  Indeed he was:

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After the trade, Ryan did a comprehensive breakdown of Ariza’s statistics over the last couple of years. Charles Barkley has a saying about stats, “they are like a fine woman in a bikini- nice to look at, but you don’t see the whole story.” This is especially true in basketball, where every team is completely different with regard to their systems and the talent they already have in place. That makes it extremely difficult to take what we know of a player from the past and project what he will do with a new team. Not only is it likely that the amount of shots a player gets will vary from team to team, but the type of shots he will get varies as well. 

A playmaking point guard, a once-in-a-generation wing player, or a dominant big man who demands double teams all make the game much easier for the other four guys on the court, and usually this gets reflected in their overall statistics.  In recent years Steve Nash has rejuvenated the careers of Grant Hill, Tim Thomas, Jared Dudley, and Channing Frye by getting them the looks that they could not get in other systems with average point guards. Before that he was responsible for helping relatively limited offensive players like Shawn Marion and Quentin Richardson achieve career years that led to them getting paid like superstars. With Nash, even guys like Raja Bell became 15 PPG scorers.

The hope is that CP3 can have the same kind of effect on Ariza this upcoming year in New Orleans. Last season, Ariza did not have the luxury of an elite playmaking point guard that could set him up for easy buckets and because of that his field goal percentage suffered. However, Houston did make a trade in February that took some of the scoring duties away from Ariza, as Kevin Martin became the focal point of the offense, along with Aaron Brooks. Before the Martin trade, Ariza was averaging nearly 15.5 shots per game, shooting 37 percent from the field and only 28 percent from the three point line. After the trade, Ariza was far more efficient. His shot attempts went down to only 11.5 per game and his shooting percentages went up- 43.5 from the field and nearly 39 percent from three. In essence, Rockets fans saw two different Trevor Ariza's last season, and Hornets fans have to wonder which one they are getting.

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So the Hornets are the proud owners of two snazzy new acquisitions; Marco Belinelli and Trevor Ariza.  As always, I turned to the numbers and this is what I found:

Marco Belinelli

Marco entered the NBA with a bang, scoring 37 points in a Golden State Warrior summer league game and on the strength of that game, was regularly mentioned as a rookie with great potential.  Unfortunately, that game proved to be a bit of a fluke, and Belinelli has struggled to get extended minutes on poor teams in Golden State and Toronto.

As a scorer, Belinelli has one real talent - knocking down three point shots.  He recognizes this, taking about 40% of his shots from deep, and converting them at an above average rate for a guard.   Sadly, his scoring abilities elsewhere are lacking.  He shoots below the league average at the rim, from mid-range, and more importantly, from a step or two inside the three point line, showing that once he puts the ball on the floor, the results are likely to be suboptimal.

As a Raptor, Belinelli contributed to some of their best lineups, as his ability to stretch the floor made him a favorite target of both Jose Calderon and Chris Bosh when they needed an outlet.  He also improved their defense by 3 points per posession every time he stepped on the floor.  Unfortunately, that may be damning him with faint praise.  The Raptors were historically bad last year on defense, so his presence made them go from "cover-your-eyes" awful to "wow, they actually needed two passes to get a layup that time" bad.

All that said, Belinelli is a fine 2-guard off the bench.    He may be a lousy rebounder(and boy is he), but he turns the ball over and assists at an average rate, and has a clearly defined role as a shooter in which he can help the team.  He's still 24, so if he follows the standard career arc of an NBA player, he may improve over this year and the next.

My take on the trade?  I'll take a player with a clear, defined role over what Julian has unfortunately "developed" into.  And I hope Julian Wright takes this change of scenery to Toronto and does something with it.  I always pulled for him.

Marco Belinelli General Stat Pack:

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Since the season ended, the #1 question has been which PG is being traded and when. It looks like we finally have our answer. ESPN is reporting that a four team trade has been finalized that will send Collison and Posey to Indiana, Troy Murphy to the Nets, Courtney Lee to the Rockets, and Trevor Ariza to the Hornets. 

From the Hornets point of view, it is a move that accomplishes multiple objectives. It upgrades the small forward position instantly, both offensively and defensively. It also sheds the second worst contract the Hornets have on the books, and finally it shows Chris Paul that management is going all in on him as their point guard and leader of the future. Of course Paul can opt out in two years and leave the team with no floor general, but the front office is showing that they aren't going to be held captive by fear and "what-ifs."

Financially, the Hornets will pay Ariza slightly less than they would have paid Posey over the next two years and will save approximately 1.5 million this year if you include shipping out Collison. Of course that money will likely be spent on whomever the new backup point guard will be, so the savings is negligible in reality. 

On the court, the upgrade from Posey to Ariza will be rather substantial on both ends of the court. Ariza is only 25 and averaged 15 points per game in his first full season as a starter last season. Defensively, he is both good as an on-ball and off the ball weakside defender who can fill passing lanes and get the Hornets out in transition with frequency. 

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The inescapable truth for this off-season is that Chris Paul trade rumors will fly until he is moved or the Hornets take the floor in October for their opening game.  That, of course, will be frustrating for many Hornets fans, and depressing for others.  For a while, I've been sitting in the 'depressing' camp, but now I'm past that, and instead of dwelling on Paul leaving, I decided to take advantage of the ESPN TrueHoop Network and solicit the network's Team Bloggers for their best offers for Paul. 

A good half of them responded, and here are the offers, ranked and grouped in logical fashion, and accompanied by my own mockery analysis.  One blogger, who opens up our bidding, didn't even go after Paul, but instead tried to give Paul to someone else and steal West in the process.

Group 1: Hahahaha . *gasp* . . hee hee . . . wait, you're serious?

Offer #13 Brendan Jackson of Celtics Hub

Team	Offers	Receives
Boston Celtics	Rasheed Wallace and no one I've ever heard of	David West. Oh - and Paul goes to Indiana for Danny Granger.

Thanks, Brendan for the laughs.  Somehow I don't think trading Paul and David West for Granger and Rasheed Wallace's retirement party would do much for New Orleans.  For more info about Jackson's offer, take a gander over at his site.

Offer #12 John Krolik of Cavs: the Blog

Team	Offer	Receive
Cleveland Cavaliers	$11.5 Million Trade Exception, JJ Hickson, Mo Williams, Leon Powe, Danny Green	Chris Paul, Emeka Okafor

Sigh.  I weep for Cleveland.

Group 2: And that helps the Hornets rebuild . . . how?

Offer #11 Rob Mahoney of The Two Man Game

Team	Offer	Receive
Dallas Mavericks	Tyson Chandler, $3 million cash, 2 2nd round picks	Emeka Okafor
Dallas Mavericks	Caron Butler, JJ Barea, Deshawn Stevenson, Rodrigue Beaubois, 3 million cash, 2 1st rounders	Paul and Pose

The fact this has to be two trades tells you everything you need to know about it:  They have to break it into two trades so they can give the Hornets enough cash to hide the fact that other than one undersized, unproven PG, none of the players being given to the Hornets are likely to be there a year later, and that the draft picks will be nearly worthless.  For more on Rob's offer and hopes for landing CP3, see his post about Castles on a Cloud.

Offer #10 Michael Schwartz of ValleyoftheSuns

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