Basketball is a deceptively simple game. On offense, five guys work together to generate a good shot for a player who can knock it down. On defense, five guys work together to try and make the opposing team take bad shots, and miss them. Simple, right?
The concept may be simple, but for a long time, there have been few publically available statistical stats that could help people like me more easily understand the details behind those simple ideas. Sure, I had FG%, and eFG%, and TS%, but other than three-pointers I didn't really have any readily available statistical information to evaluate the types of shots the team was getting - or their success with those types of shots. Were they at the rim? Were they 20 footers? No clue, unless I charted the game myself.
Happily, that has changed over the past couple years, as play-by-plays and the resulting available stats have progressed to the point that we now know the types of shots teams and players are taking, how successful they are from specific places on the floor, and how they compare to the other teams in the league. My personal favorite site is now Hoopdata.com,(in fact, when I was first directed there, I had a bit of a statgasm) which has a wonderful set of sortable data. I have probably spent hours pouring over their numbers now, and I wanted to talk about one derived stat that stood out to me: XeFG%.
XeFG% is the Expected effective Field Goal percentage for a team. It takes the types of shots they get - I.E. number of shots taken at the rim, from closer than 10 feet, from 10-15 feet, from 16-23 feet, and from downtown - and then takes the league average for shots of those types, and derives what the team should be expected to produce on those shots. Now, before your eyes glaze over, these numbers are useful. They give us two bits of information:
- How good the team's offense is at generating high percentage shots
- How good the team is at converting the shots they get.
The same sort of information is available for opponent percentages per team, so you can judge just how good your team is on the other end of the floor too. To illustrate, we'll start with the Hornets. (of course) Then I'll go on to some other interesting teams like Charlotte, Portland, and OKC.
Offense
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