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The pattern continues in New Orleans, as the Hornets fell behind by double digits - twice - and then stormed back in the fourth to make it competitive.  Tonight, the game went in favor of OKC, who did everything well but hold onto the ball.

Key stat of the night:  OKC went 15-30 from midrange(10-23 feet) shooting a good 12% better than their average from there.  The Hornets went 7-24, or 12% worse than their average.  The biggest shot of the game, by Russell Westbrook, was a jumpshot from about 17 feet, where he is only shooting 32% for the season.  The Hornets got OKC to take the shot they wanted.  Credit Westbrook for sticking it anyways.

Marcus Thornton

Lil' Buckets combined with James Posey as the engine propelling the big comeback in the fourth.  He did take a few shots that made me groan, but he also repeatedly attacked the basket, putting the onus on the Thunder to stop him.  When he went out after a hard fall, the Hornets lost the only guy on the court who could generate shots for himself.  He tried gamely to keep playing, but the  way he moved reminded me of a 90-year old backing up to a couch to sit down - gingerly edging backwards, with his arms held away from his body for instant action in case something unexpected happened.  Up to that point, he had gone for 22 points on 18 shots, 6 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 blocks, a steal, and no turnovers.  He'd also done a very good job on James Harden.

David West

West started out the game aggressive, punishing Jeff Green in the first half.  In the second, the Thunder were doubling a little faster and using Ibaka or Collison to check him and he became largely ineffectual, taking some weak long bombs.  He also was completely unable to help Collison on high screens guarding Westbrook.

That put West in an unfamiliar place in the fourth:  on the bench the entire quarter.  As I've said so many times before, against athletic teams, Bower feels he has to decide if he wants to keep Okafor or West in at center next to Songaila, who will move his feet on high screens.  Tonight, for the first time, he determined Okafor was being more effective.  I'm not upset by the choice - but I do disagree a bit.  David West does amp up his effort in the fourth quarter, particularly defensively. 

Of course, that begs the question why he can be so lackadaisical defensively during the first three quarters.

Other Observations

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Matchup: Thunder(27-21) @ Hornets(26-22)

Off Efficiency: Thunder 103.3(19th), Hornets 104.8(14th)
Def Efficiency: Thunder 100.5(6th), Hornets 105.5(19th)

The Thunder have recovered from a three game losing streak with a three game winning streak, including a road win over tough Atlanta last night.  The Thunder, despite the phenomenal scoring expoits of Kevin Durant, do not win games with their offense, which is, frankly, inept when the ball leaves Durant's hands.  Instead, they rely on their defense to keep them in games, but even their defense is a bit strange.  As I noted a few posts ago, the Thunder routinely give up really easy shots, yet still keep the opposing team from hitting them.  We'll have to see how the Hornets handle that curve ball.

Tonight will also be quite a test for the Hornets rookies as they face Thabo Sefolosha and Russell Westbrook, two extremely long, athletic and capable defenders.  If they can come through with solid efforts, the Hornets interior of West and Okafor should be able to complete the win for the Hornets.

Injuries

Thunder: None
Hornets: Chris Paul, Out

Positional Analysis

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On the second night of a back to back, the Hornets went into Denver to take on a team that has only lost 3 times on its home court.  Missing David West, they took the game to overtime, and then fell short as the guy they were leaving to double Carmelo(Afflalo) hit two big threes to bury them.

I'm still staring at the box score, though, and trying to figure out how the game ever went to overtime in the first place.  The Nuggets shot better(and hit more shots) from three, took 14 more free throws, and outrebounded the hornets by 24(!!!) but still only managed 6 more points.  They had 6 more turnovers, which I guess helps close the gap, but . . . still.

James Posey & Devin Brown

These two guys drew the duty of containing Carmelo tonight, and they did a remarkable job against him.  Yes, Carmelo scored 30, and yes, the AP recap seems to think he carried his team, but that's pretty far from the truth.  Brown and Posey were physical with him all game while Collison, Paul and Songaila regularly doubled him.  I've seen Melo handle that sort of defensive pressure well in other games, but tonight he seemed dead-set on taking shots no matter what.  It was good for the Hornets as he scored 30, but took 28 shots to do it.  Yeah, that wasn't really helping.

That all said, Posey and Brown may have been making Carmelo's life hard on one end of the floor, but they were making it easy at the other end of the court.  Melo was guarding them all night, and they ended up going 4-15 and 2-9 from deep, and a lot of the missed shots were wide open.

The Starters

Sometimes it's stomach-churning how little athleticism there is in the Hornets starting linup.  Okafor is okay.  Paul is superb.  That's it.  That causes tremendous problems late in games.  In the first quarters, when teams haven't yet dialed up the defensive intensity, Brown or Peja can get free for shots.  Songaila can get open looks from mid-range.  But when overtime kicks off, and teams are buckling down defensively, Brown and Peja do not get free, no matter how many screens are set for them.  Songaila can not get seperation on a pick and pop.

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Yeah.  I said it.  It's not Chris Paul.  It's not D-West.  It's Emeka Okafor.

Now, before any of you blow a gasket, I'm not saying Emeka Okafor is better than Chris Paul.  That's not even a contest.  What this post is about is depth and skill sets, and in my opinion there is one player that the Hornets have to have on the floor - and playing well - for the Hornets to have any chance of winning.  That player is Emeka Okafor.

Yes, Chris Paul is amazing, but Darren Collison did alright with Paul out in running the team.  He can at least dribble, pass, defend and drive a little.  Behind David West is Darius Songaila, who really is David West Lite.  He shoots the same, assists the same, turns the ball over the same, but shoots less often and rebounds a little worse.  Then there is Peja Stojakovic and Devin Brown and the "talent" behind them.   The Wing positions are so fungible I'm convinced one of our Wings could sink into the bayou and be eaten by a catfish and we'd not even notice. (Except for Thornton.  I'd be out there noodlin' for that damn catfish if he ever even thought about eating Lil' Buckets.)

Behind Okafor, however, is a complete dearth of his primary talents: rebounding and shotblocking.   David West is the teams second best rebounder, with a weak 12.1% rebound rate.  Among power forwards, that ranks 48th out of 68 . . . and it gets worse: Other than Okafor and West, the Hornets have a grand total of one player with a rebound rate in double digits: Julian Wright, with 11.8(4th among SF) . . . and he only plays 7 minutes a game.

That means, of course, if Okafor is struggling, there is no one else on the team capable of picking up the slack, and the wins-loss numbers tell the tale.  The Hornets have two primary correlations between individual production and wins-loss:

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For about 20 minutes of that game, the Hornets weren't even competing.  Lazy passes, terrible rotations, constant miscommunications on defense, too much watching Paul dribble, and some of the worst transition defense I've ever seen.  They would brick shots, Paul would get back, and three Timberwolves would follow him in for a layup as Devin Brown tried to decide if he could catch one of them.  You look at the box score and its hard to figure out how the Hornets win.  The Wolves had a 20 rebound advantage, shot 52% from the field and had twice as many free throw attempts as the Hornets.

The Hornets, however, were bailed out by three things:  a furious three-point assault, the rookies playing well, and a quick-moving small-ball lineup that had Songaila playing center and Posey playing power forward.(and getting the benefit of some 50-50 calls)

Going Small

Jeff Bower recognized something as the game wore on.  Their bigs were tearing up our bigs.  West and Okafor held their own against Jefferson, but when Kevin Love entered the fray, the Hornets started getting crushed on the boards.  Since our bigs couldn't handle the boards, outlet passes were flying, and the young Wolves were out and running, scoring easily in transition en route to a 16 point lead.  It got so bad that even Chris Paul started giving up defensively.

So Bower rolled the dice, sent Songaila out as the center, Posey as the power forward, and loaded up with Thornton, Collison and eventually, Chris Paul on the perimeter.  The Hornets continued to get crushed on the glass, but their pressure on the perimeter and energetic defense inside made it impossible to feed Jefferson and Love in the post.  They stayed home on Sessions, Ellington, and somewhat on Flynn and begged Corey Brewer to shoot.  15-2 run and the Hornets were back into it.  They didn't go back to the starting lineup until 3:30 was left in the game - at which point they immediately gave up a three point lead and had to struggle to finish out.

One thing is clear from that game, though, Posey is not a small forward any longer.  His foot speed is so drastically reduced, he cannot cover anyone on the perimeter.  As a stretch four, he still has possibilities, however limited they may be.

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