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Matchup: Thunder(27-21) @ Hornets(26-22)

Off Efficiency: Thunder 103.3(19th), Hornets 104.8(14th)
Def Efficiency: Thunder 100.5(6th), Hornets 105.5(19th)

The Thunder have recovered from a three game losing streak with a three game winning streak, including a road win over tough Atlanta last night.  The Thunder, despite the phenomenal scoring expoits of Kevin Durant, do not win games with their offense, which is, frankly, inept when the ball leaves Durant's hands.  Instead, they rely on their defense to keep them in games, but even their defense is a bit strange.  As I noted a few posts ago, the Thunder routinely give up really easy shots, yet still keep the opposing team from hitting them.  We'll have to see how the Hornets handle that curve ball.

Tonight will also be quite a test for the Hornets rookies as they face Thabo Sefolosha and Russell Westbrook, two extremely long, athletic and capable defenders.  If they can come through with solid efforts, the Hornets interior of West and Okafor should be able to complete the win for the Hornets.

Injuries

Thunder: None
Hornets: Chris Paul, Out

Positional Analysis

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Friday night the Hornets hit Detroit and then travel south on Saturday to take on the Pacers in their fourth and fifth games in seven nights. So that means a double preview.  Yay?  Double the fun?

Matchups: Hornets(20-17) @ Pistons(12-25) & @ Pacers(13-25)

Offensive Efficiency:

Hornets 104.1(16th), Pistons 100.0(24th), Pacers 98.8(26th)

Defensive Efficiency:

Hornets 105.6(20th), Pistons 107.4(24th), Pacers 103.9(17th)

Pistons

The Hornets played the Pistons on December 16th, fell behind by 13 at the half, and stormed back in the second half behind tightening defense and an offensive blitz from West and Paul.(32 points combined in the half)

Since that game, Rip Hamilton has returned to the lineup for the Pistons, Austin Daye has fallen out of the rotation, and the Pistons have managed one win(over the Wizards) in fourteen tries.

The Pistons had hoped that Villueneva, Tayshaun Prince, Stuckey, Hamilton and Ben Gordon would provide the scoring needed to compete this season.  While Gordon has done well, he’s battled injuries, and is injured now, leaving the others to fire away freely. Combined, they manage a pathetic 59.3 points on 56.3 shots.  It’s so bad GM Joe Dumars could hire an Imperial Stormtrooper to teach them how to shoot and expect improvement.

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Matchup: Nets(3-30) @ Hornets(17-16)

Off Efficiency: Nets 94.3(30th), Hornets 103.0(21st)
Def Efficiency: Nets 107.1(23rd), Hornets 105.6(20th)

Injuries:

Nets: Jarvis Hayes is Day-to-Day
Hornets: Ike Diogu, Sean Marks

The Nets are terrible.  Yeah, I know that's a bit of a "duh" statement since their record stands at 3-30.  Their offense, however, is more than just terrible.  Over the last five years, offensive rules changes has made scoring much easier, and not a single team has ended the season with an efficiency below 100.  The Nets trail that mark by 5.7.  I guess that's what happens when you consciously trade away your best players for picks and cap space - and then hold all that cap space for the future.

Oddly, the Nets do have a few efficient scorers on their team.  Yi Jianlin and Brook Lopez both average over 1.3 points per shot - and Devin Harris is posting a decent David West-like 1.23.  The problem, however, is their other players.  Chris Douglas-Roberts, Courtney Lee, and the recently waived Rafer Alston took a combined 33 shots a game - and produced 35.  That's awful.  Again, it would be like us running our offense through Devin Brown.  Last year's Devin Brown.  Oh, and he'd have to take as many shots as Kobe does.  Yeah.  It's that bad.

So, for the Hornets to take out the Nets, the key is to let the guards shoot.  Pressure Lopez, stay on Yi, and ask Courtney Lee and Douglas-Roberts to fire away from the perimeter, please.

OR they Hornets could win by crashing the boards, because the Nets ignore the glass, giving up a 6-rebound advantage to opposing teams.  Lopez isn't a bad rebounder, but Yi is weak on that end, and none of their guards bother with the boards in any meaningful sense.  In fact, Peja Stojakovic produces more rebounds per minute than every one of their swingmen and point guards - except Douglas Roberts, who exactly equals him.  That's pretty tough, considering I turn up my nose at Peja's rebounding efforts.

So - there are a lot of ways to beat this team.  Let's hope the Hornets take advantage of one of them.

Enjoy the game.

Matchup: Hornets(13-15) @ Rockets(18-13)

Off Efficiency: Hornets 102.5(20th), Rockets 103.6(16th)
Def Efficiency: Hornets 105.9(22nd), Rockets 103.5(16th)

The Rockets are a hard team to understand.  They hold an 18-13 record, yet have perfectly average efficiencies.  They beat teams like the Lakers and Cleveland, but lose to Golden State and the Clippers.  They've had a huge number of road games, and managed to win half of them, despite the lack of any superstars to carry them over the top.  The Rockets rebound at the same rate as their opponents, generate steals at the same rate, get half as many blocks, and in general, shoot worse than their opponents.

So how do they win?  The little things.  The give one less foul a game than opponents.  They grab two more offensive rebounds, making up for their scoring problems.  They turn the ball over one less time per game.  They defend hard and get under the opponents skin - generating one more technical free throw than their opponents per game.  All those things add up to about a 4-5 point advantage per game.  That matters.

So how do you beat them?  Try and limit the shots of their speedy point guard duo of Lowry and Aaron Brooks, two of their most efficient players.  Try and make Carl Landry, their most dangerous offensive weapon, into a passer.  Try to make the Rockets count on Trevor Ariza to be their scorer, and entice him into trying to be a one-on-one hero.(Put Peja on him, maybe?)

Sadly, the Hornets aren't very good at stopping speedy point guards and Landry is an unconventional post scorer who is hard to stop with good interior  defenders, much less what the Hornets have shown so far.  Oh, and the Hornets have sucked on the road, that doesn't help either.

Injuries:

Hornets: No Sean Marks.
Rockets: No McGrady, No Yao Ming, and Ariza is Day to Day.

Positional Analysis

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As the Hornets continue to prove that the team this year is a fairly average crew, more and more writers(like the always entertaining Bill Simmons) - and "fans" - are arguing that blowing up the team and starting over is the best course.  The first thing we need to address - and let's make no bones about it - is that it's a stretch to call the Hornets results this year "average", despite their record.  They are below average in every measure of shooting, rebounding, defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency.  Of the primary categories, only their turnover and assist rates are better than average overall.  So yes, this team needs change.  However, should they blow up the team - and trade Chris Paul?

The premise is that the Hornets should package Chris Paul with all the horrible Hornets contracts on the books and start over from scratch.  So let's run through that scenario:

Blowing up the Hornets

The bad contracts the Hornets have are Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, and James Posey.  That trio ties up $27.5 million in salary this year, and $29.5 million next year.  So lets posit that the Hornets bundle all three contracts with Chris Paul and trade them right now.  They lose a 24-year old top 3 talent in the league.  They get back a bunch of expiring contracts, a player or two that will never be 60% of Chris Paul, and draft picks.  (Of course, most of the teams that could deal for Paul are at least average already, and will clearly get better, so those picks will be worth a miniscule amount.)

The result: 

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