The free agency pool this year isn’t teeming with exceptional fish.  Most of the real talent comes in two varieities: Old or Restricted.  In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and say there is almost nothing the Hornets will do in free agency this summer that will turn them into anything resembling a contender.

That said, there has been one name cropping up in discussions about the Hornets all over the web:  Goran Dragic.

Dragic plays for Houston, and was nearly a Hornet at the start of the season before the Paul to the Lakers trade was aborted.  That near-trade has clearly stuck in the minds of some Hornets fans, and the fact Dragic is unrestricted and played well over the last two months of the year has some hoping he could be the new Point Guard of the Future.

My take?  No thanks.

Take a look at these two lines:

The first of those players is Goran Dragic. The other? The much maligned Jarrett Jack.

Right. Jarrett Jack.

But wait, you say, those are full season stats, and Dragic only started the last couple months? You feel that’s misleading? Fine. Here’s Dragic’s advanced stats as a starter.

Ahhh…those numbers look better.  Look at that shooting!  Those increased assists?  That shiny PER!  And his defense can’t be worse than Jarrett Jack’s, right?

Sure.  Still, buyer beware.

Fluke Shooting

Dragic’s true shooting percentage(TS%) was nuts as a starter.  A 60.9% TS% is something to drool over.  Here’s the problem:  Dragic has been in the league for 4 seasons now – and this stretch was way above the norm for him.  He’ s not a bad shooter, but it’s rare that a player can sustain a sudden bump of 5% in their true shooting percentage and keep that going forward.  They fall back to earth.  I expect that will happen – and in truth, it had already started to happen.  In Dragic’s last two weeks as a starter, he shot at his normal TS% of 56% – and the Rockets, you’ll remember, rode him right out of playoff contention.

That doesn’t scream difference maker to me.

The Eventual Price

Still, let’s even grant Dragic retains his shooting numbers as a starter.  How much is that improvement over Jack really worth?  Remember, Dragic isn’t a sexy name just for Hornets fans.  His hot close to the season earned a bunch of hype around the league – and I’ve seen writers in Portland, Phoenix, Indiana, Utah,  Atlanta, and Golden State bring him up as a target this off-season.  Houston management has also said they would try to keep him.

That’s seven teams trying to land him without factoring in NY, NJ, Orlando, Miami, Dallas and Charlotte – all of whom could use an upgrade or major help at PG and only one is going to get Deron Williams.  Those teams other options?  Jameer Nelson maybe?  Felton, Hinrich, Aaron Brooks or the ancient Miller or Nash?   Other than Nash, are any of those guys better than Dragic?  No, I’d say not.

That, of course, means he’ll have lots of suitors.  Teams spent the last couple years eviscerating their salary numbers, and as a result, a lot of teams will have a lot of money to spend this year.  I expect he’ll get an offer averaging 4 years at no less than 9 million per.  Stuckey demanded that.  Mike Conley and Calderon demanded more in their time.  That seems to be his market.

Do you think Dragic is worth that much of our cap?  Next to Gordon who will probably command 12 million or more a year?  Is Dragic, who needs the ball in his hands, the type of guard you want to put next to Gordon?

I don’t think so.  I’d rather keep Jack and pay 60% of that salary or look at other veteran options and trades.

Hopefully, in New Orleans, there will be no Dragons. (Unless you are watching Game of Thrones. Which you should be. If you aren’t, you are banned. You hear me, McNamara!?! Banned!!)

With the off-season underway for the Hornets, GM Dell Demps and head coach Monty Williams should have one name at the top of their free agent wish list: Goran Dragic.

For most of the season Dragic was solid yet unspectacular, but when Houston’s starting point guard Kyle Lowry went down with an injury, Dragic stepped in and kept the team in the playoff race. Not only that, but he was putting up All-Star numbers. In 27 games as a starter Dragic averaged 18.4 points, 8.3 assists, 3.4 rebounds per game, 49.6% shooting and 39.4% three-point shooting. For the season Dragic had a true shooting percentage of 56.7%, well above the Hornets’ average of 52.7%

But it goes beyond his individual statistics; Dragic also raises his team’s level of play. When Dragic is on the court, the team’s true shooting percentage jumps up a full 3%. This is the result of him getting the ball to the rest of the team in their favorite spots. This is also why his assist percentage jumped over 7% to 34.6% as a starter.

Contrast that with the Hornets current starter Jarrett Jack. With Jack on the court, the Hornets’ true shooting percentage declines 1% and their rebound rate drops 2%. Not only does the team play slightly worse offense with Jack, he really hurts the team’s defense as well. Opponent free throw rate and steal rate both increase by 5%, and opponent shooting percentage increases by 4%. Dragic’s presence on the other hand neither hurts nor helps his teams defense, though 82games.com lists his opponent PER as a below average 12.7. (While Jack’s is a terrible 16.7)

While Dragic may not be able to keep up the same level of play, the beauty is that he doesn’t need to. With Eric Gordon in the fold, Dragic would be the second offensive option. He would be able to focus on distributing the ball while still being able to take on the scoring burden when Gordon is out or having an off game.

Dragic will have many suitors this offseason and is expected to receive a contract worth 8 to 10 million a year. And you know what? I’m totally okay with that. The free agent pool is fairly weak and next season there are almost no desirable unrestricted point guards. Yeah it might be a little too much given what his production will most likely be, but if he lives up to what we’ve seen this season, Dragic could be a steal.

Plus, there is soooo much nickname potential.

The Hornets have a chance to lock up their starting backcourt for the next 4 seasons and they need to jump at the chance to do it.

Though agreements in principle have been announced, the sale of the Hornets to Tom Benson is not official. Likewise, the lease amendment to keep the team in New Orleans through 2023-2024, the tax rebates the Hornets require, and the money to renovate the Arena have not been approved. These items are in various stages of development.

HB2

This bill controls a massive bond issue, part of which is the $50M for upgrades to the New Orleans Arena. Comparing this amount to the $2.6B in bonds and $3.9B in total financing, it is understandable that this bill has taken its sweet time getting out of the Ways and Means committee of the House. The half-page of description of these funds for the LSED, not the Hornets, in the 131 pages document should draw little attention, being just 2% of the bond issue and is being used to upgrade a state asset that has seen no major upgrades in 13 year existence.

This bill will likely see movement this week, but a meeting on the bill for today was cancelled.

HB1072

This bill controls about $3.65M in annual tax rebates over the next 10 years. The amount of the rebates starts off below this level and increases annually.

It requires final senate approval and the Governor’s signature, which it is expected to get, making other means of approval unnecessary to comment on further. Update: HB1072 passed the Senate.

These tax rebates are a continuation of tax rebates the franchise is already receiving. The basis of the rebate is the Quality Jobs Program, which gives tax rebates to businesses that create jobs. In this case, the amount of the rebate is approximately equal to the amount of income tax associated with typical player payroll. These tax revenue source would not present if the team were not located here. The rest of the employees of the team will contribute about $1M annually in income tax. This does not include the indirect tax effect due to increase payroll to Arena workers, etc., spending by players and employees that generates tax dollars. Even with these rebates, the team is creating a net positive in terms of taxes. Tax rebates and the like can be touchy subjects in trying economic times, but this situation is far from the most odious.

Lease

I have not found any reference to the lease in the Legislature at this time. If you see something I don’t, let me know. Thanks.

I’m not sure what the mechanism really is for the State to approve or sign the lease, so perhaps the Legislature is not involved. I’ll be researching this process this week.

Sale

Tom Benson has made a down payment on the team and the NBA Board of Governors has given their nod from the financial perspective, but the sale is not final. The final approval is expected by the end of May according to David Stern.

In the end, the dates to remember are June 4th, the date by which the Legislative session ends, and July 1, the date on which the lease amendment takes effect if all the preconditions are met.

Threats

With three weeks left of the legislative session and seven weeks left before all the work must be done, there is plenty of time for all this to work out . . . and plenty of time for it to fall apart, like the sale in Atlanta and the Arena deal in Sacramento.

dcoop over at Hornets Report asked what the chances were of something going wrong with all of this. This isn’t a math problem, but a qualitative threat analysis kind of problem.

Most of the recent sources of turbulence had to do with owner finances or arena complications, not mutually exclusive. Our situation was basically due to the NBA foreclosing on the team due to Shinn’s finances and his inability to operate the team once the aid he needed from the NBA to run the team was maxed out. The Sonics were sold by Schultz to some extent because of arena complications, but also because he was not willing to take the financial risk associated the team as it was at the time. Alex Meruelo’s purchase of the Hawks fell through due to concerns by the NBA over his finances. Most recently, the Maloofs’ very public Compson-like fall in which they have tarnished the arena in which they play with their thrashing about have seemingly cemented themselves into not having the Kings at some point in the near future whether the move or not, whether they get an arena or not.

Benson seems to have no such issues financially, and any questions about the Arena are being addressed with HB2.

I see the biggest threats as Benson dying between now and when the deal is done, or divorce. The former is the most likely I’m assuming, and there are no indications that he’s in anything but good enough health to travel and work business deals.

Our Edge

There is money to be made here and a will to keep the team on many levels, including a governmental one. These things do not exist together in many markets, regardless of size. The small-market / large-market aspect of who `deserves’ a team stems from two factors. One was an analysis of where success was and wasn’t, where free agents were and were not, etc., without a good deal of regard for accounting for confounding factors. The second is intellectual laziness.

While market size is a factor in determining how much money there is for an owner to make in a market, it’s how much money that can be extracted from a market that really influences things. Seattle does not make it easy to extract money from their much-larger-than-New-Orleans’-market market, so they lost their team.

We, as a region and people, are taking pride in our entertainment assets and working with the NBA to make our facilities good for us, them, and other tenants.

Find a bigger city than New Orleans who can put on Mardi Gras, the Sugar Bowl, and the Super Bowl . . . perhaps with some NFL playoff games . . . all in a month, and I’ll show a city that could swipe our NBA team in a legitimate fashion.

Until then, we got this.

Don’t sweat this too much, but you have to keep an eye on the bureaucrats. Always, one eye on the bureaucrats.

Paperwork is important.

And miles to go before I sleep.

We’ll keep you posted here or in an update next week.

This one is a good one guys.

Enjoy the Podcast! Want it on Itunes?

For those of you who got to hear Dell Demps on Jim Rome this week, you might have noticed that Demps seemed fairly conservative with his thoughts on the draft process. He talked about minimizing risk and evaluating whether a player’s talent is bigger than his problems. Personally, I agree with these philosophies for the most part- happy with the double in most cases, as opposed to going for the home run, but risking the strikeout. Fans like to talk about gambling on the ‘Boom or Bust’ guy, but their livelihoods aren’t at stake. It is fun to imagine what the Nikoloz Tskitishvili’s might become if they “put it all together”, but drafting a known entity like Caron Butler just seems to make more sense to me.

In 2002, Kiki Vandeweghe liked the “upside” more however, and he has since been fired as GM of the Nuggets and the Nets- where he drafted a high upside shooting guard named Terrance Williams over more proven commodities like Tyler Hansborough, Darren Collison, Ty Lawson, and Taj Gibson. Williams will be on his 4th NBA team next year, most likely on a minimum contract, while the other four are key contributors on playoff teams.

This post is not meant to be an indictment of Kiki Vandeweghe, but rather an example of what can happen when the Boom or Bust guy goes bust. But what if they go boom? Well, that happens just enough to keep the trend going, obviously. If the boom or bust guys always busted, the league would have caught on and there would be no point in having this debate. In fact, in that same 2002 draft, the Nuggets choose a little known player from Brazil name Nene Hilario over guys like Melvin Ely and Marcus Haislip who were very productive in college.

It’s called ‘Boom or Bust’ for a reason- not ‘Bust or Bust’- and sometimes it is necessary to take a risk in order to get more value than expected from your draft position. There is no right answer every single time, in every single circumstance, but for the purpose of this week’s edition, let’s take a look at the guys who are the least risky prospects in the 2012 draft.

1. Anthony Davis

How he fails: Injuries or a drastic shift to the rules on the NBA game.

Admittedly, I would have had Greg Oden as a low risk prospect in 2007, but injuries have derailed his career and there is always a chance that chronic injuries can strike the Unibrow. But aside from that, the only way Anthony Davis completely busts is if Stern decides to use his last years as commisioner to make the NBA more like Baseketball. Psyche outs, no true defense allowed, and inappropriate cheerleading could all minimize his impact on the game.

Outside of those two drastic events happening, there is just no way Davis can fail. His floor is Marcus Camby, and even that is hard to imagine. He already is a better ball handler, a better shooter, better in the low post on offense, and fouls less than Camby ever did. Athletically, Davis and young Camby are on par and Camby is a better high post passer, but Davis gets the check mark almost everywhere else.

Injuries or Rule changes.

2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

How he fails: Injuries or Mati taking his ring back.

Again, we can’t predict injuries, and MKG could be an injury prone player throughout his career for the same reasons Dwayne Wade has gotten banged up several times. He just plays so hard on every play and attacks the rim so feriousisly, that he could get undercut, flipped, etc. at any time. Aside from that, the only way he fails is if he somehow loses his greatest skill- his heart (hence, the Mati Captain Planet reference).

Most players love the game and most players give it their all from night to night, but every couple of years someone special comes along that just shows another level of will, heart, and passion. Kidd-Gilchrist is that guy in this draft. A born leader who also loves to be coached, MKG just won’t allow himself to fail and will find a way to impact the game, even if he never fixes his jump shot. If you measure a guy like MKG by PPG or some other out of date statistic, you are missing the point. Instead, think of a more talented version of a guy like Nick Collison, who year after year finishes in the top 10 in categories like plus/minus.

And that’s his floor.

3. Kendall Marshall

How he fails: Miscast

When a guy has an A+ skill set, he rarely (if ever) fails in the NBA. While a guy like that might not become a franchise changer, he gives you a guy on your roster that is a known quantity with a role and most coaches/GM’s will take that. The JJ Reddick’s of the world are limited, but they will always have value in this league, as evidenced by the fact that multiple teams were offering 6-7 million dollar (per year) contracts, which Orlando quickly matched.

Marshall’s court vision and leadership are both A+, and at worst you are looking at a backup point guard who makes the guys on the second unit appear to be far better players than they actually are. Think rookie version Jamaal Tinsley, who averaged 9 points and 8 assists per game, but more likely he becomes Mark Jackson with a ceiling of Ricky Rubio on offense (and still Mark Jackson on defense). He only fails if he is put on a team like the Heat, where he has two other guys dominating the ball, leaving him as a spot up shooter.

4. Austin Rivers

How he fails: Goes to a perenial laughing stock.

Rivers is probably the biggest surprise on the list, but I have racked my brain trying to imagine how he fails and I just can’t do it. He wasn’t a great fit at Duke and therefore didn’t meet expectations, but I saw the same thing happen to Russell Westbrook at UCLA and he turned out alright. I am not comparing the two guys as players, I am just saying that they were both bad fits for their programs because they were volume scorers forced to play for rather conservative coaches. In the wide open NBA game, Westbrook has thrived and so should Rivers.

Rivers is a cerbral player, the son of a great coach, he can get his own shot almost at will, and has enough athletisicm to make plays in the paint- but not too much where it will keep him from working on other aspects of his game. The only way he fails is if he goes to a horrible team that forces him to become the go to guy instead of a role player, much like Kemba Walker has been asked to do for the Bobcats. Outside of that unfortunate situation, I just can’t imagine a scenario in which Rivers isn’t, at the very least, a Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams type off the bench for the next 10-12 years.

5. Jared Sullinger

How he fails: Injuries or unrealistic expectations

It seems to happen every year. We have a talented first or second team All-American come into the draft that has never been anything but productive on the court. The player also displays exemplarary character and leadership, yet he still plummets down draft boards. Why? Because of his measurables. They are undersized or slightly overweight, or can’t jump as high as fellow prospects, and they earn the dreaded label- “below the rim scorer.” Well, what is the last word in that label? SCORER! Who cares how they do it?

In 2003, David West was one of the top three players in college basketball, yet he went 18th behind guys like Reece Gaines and Marcus Banks who had sensational numbers at their workouts. West measured just over 6 foot 9 inches, which was an inch less than ideal for the position. An inch! And his no step vertical was a rather pedestrian 28.5 inches (almost a foot less than Marcus Banks). Yet, West has gone on to have a terrific career, despite the fact that he doesn’t posterize people. Two points is two points.

We saw the same thing happen with DeJuan Blair, Paul Milsap, Carl Landry, and Carlos Boozer. They all fell to the second round because of their size, as guys with better measureables but less production were called up first by the commissioner. And mark my word, it is going to happen again this year, as GM’s will fall in love with Andre Drummond, Perry Jones, and Arnett Moutrie. It is possible that all of those guys will be selected ahead of Sullinger, but Sullinger will get the last laugh when it comes time to sign their second and third contracts.

Of all the bigs expected to go in the top 20, only Anthony Davis had a better PER and only Thomas Robinson had a higher rebound rate- two stats that usually translate well from college to the pros. The fact is that quality players come in all shapes and sizes, and it really doesn’t matter how a player produces, just that he does produce. While Sullinger might never be the perrenial All-Star that people envisioned he could become after his fabulous freshman season, he won’t bust either.

Honorable Mention (and how they fail):

Royce White (fear of flying, immaturity)

Doron Lamb (asked to do too much on bad team)

Andrew Nicholson (can’t learn to defend 3 or 4)

Kevin Jones (doesn’t get regular PT)

Quick Note

- We will have David Thorpe on the podcast tomorrow, so put your question(s) in the comments below. We will focus on:

- Hornets Young Pups and what they need to work on

- Philosophies on why certain players do or don’t develop

- Pros and Cons of prospects in 2012 draft class

Looking to the Future is a weekly column that you can find only on Hornets247.com. For past articles, click here.

Our first guest is Glenn Logan of www.aseaofblue.com, who adresses all our questions about the unibrow, Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrance Jones and Marquis Teague.

Our second guest is Brian Barbour of www.tarheelblog.com, who answers questions about Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, John Henson and Kendall Marshall.

A big thanks to both our guests!

It’s a monster podcast, hope you got some time to burn and get smart!

Enjoy the Podcast! Want it on Itunes?

In 1985, the Knicks won the first ever draft lottery (and the right to take Patrick Ewing). Some say that David Stern rigged the lotto, but the truth is always more interesting than fiction. What really happened that day is more magical. A lucky horseshoe, taken from a pacing Triple Crown winning horse named On The Road Again was borrowed from Yonkers Raceway and given to Dave DeBusschere for the night of the lottery. DeBusschere gave the horseshoe “a good rub” before the balls were drawn, and history was made, as the Knicks won the lottery that night.

Since then, representatives have been bringing any item believed to have luck in hopes of landing a coveted #1 pick. 76ers owner Pat Croche brought a miniature crystal basketball and landed Mr. Practice himself- Allen Iverson. The Bucks used a lucky fishing lure from a 16 year-old high school students to reel in “The Big Dog” Glenn Robinson. Last year, Dan Gilbert brought his son, a lucky charm so powerful that David Kahn gave up hope of getting the top pick the minute he saw him.

Point is that it is a time honored tradition and one that we have to get out in front of now, with the draft less than four weeks away. After nearly two years of being the national media’s punching bag and the departure of our superstar just five months ago (doesn’t it feel MUCH longer?), it is time for the city of New Orleans to have it’s revenge. A city that is known for it’s voodoo, must cast magic of another kind on itself. It’s time to get lucky. No, not that kind of lucky. Lottery lucky.

So, I want you to post your luckiest item on the comments section below. We will get the eyeballs of Hugh Webber and Hornets brass on this page, with the hopes that they select a lucky item that will bring us the man they call Unibrow. My good luck charm is a Georgetown #33 jersey that I have had since 1994. I will be wearing that (and perhaps only that) on that franchise changing night. How about you? Give us the item and a brief story, and perhaps we can combine these items like Planeteers all calling out to summon Captain Davis at our Hornets Draft Party on May 30th.

Players as Transformers

Little pet peeve of mine: Don’t give guys you like the excuse that “They are still young, could develop X, Y, and Z” but then turn around and point out all the inadequecies of the guy you don’t like, with regard to their skills, as if they can’t be improved upon. It is either one or the other- be consistent. Personally, I think skills (shooting, ball handling, low post moves) can be developed, but work ethic, toughness, motor, and basketball intelligence is either a thing you have at this point or a thing you will never have. Does anybody really think Demarcus Cousins is ever going to be an energy guy or a team first guy? Never gonna happen. But can Michael Kidd-Gilchrist develop an outside game? Of course. And his current one is better than LeBron’s at the same age. Just sayin’.

The question is: Why do some guys completely transform and/or improve their game, while others retain their weaknesses? Is it purely a work ethic thing? Are the guys who don’t grow victims of bad coaching and poor advice? Some people say it is immaturity and/or ego, but how many “mature” 19 year olds have you met? Every single one of them suffered from lapses of immaturity- remember when Joakim Noah danced like a goofball after the championship game? How is one immature action distinguished from another, and how do you know what is going to carry over to the court and what isn’t?

I have not hidden my philosophy on this at all, and I will say it here again, the improvement (or lack thereof) of a player’s game has more to do with the organization than anything else. And notice that I didn’t say the coaches, I said the organization. The entire organization must have a plan for the player and must commit to that player, even when the player’s immaturity keeps them from committing to themselves. Instead, what happens far too often is grown men who are two or three times the age of the player, expect them to act and play like veterans. When they don’t, they are all too quick to move on or throw these guys under the bus in order to protect themselves. It is no coincidence that organizations that have a plan, stick with it, and give their employees job security, tend to develop prospects while the organizations that are a mess off the court stay a mess on the court. Which leads me to….

Top Offseason Priority

I bring this up because Monty and Dell are on the last year of their deals, and if they (along with guys like Hugh Weber and others) knew that they were going to be here for the long haul to build this thing the right way, it would be easy to draft a couple of 19 year-olds and bring them along slowly. But they don’t have enough security to know that they can suffer through another season or two like this past one, even if it is best for the franchise long term. Look no further than Monty’s comments last week when he all but guaranteed a playoff birth. In a scenario in which the Hornets have Andre Drummond and Damian Lillard at the top of their boards when it is time to make their respective picks, would Dell pull the trigger, effictively giving Monty two guys who will contribute little to nothing next year?

At the end of the day, I believe enough in these two men to think that they would do what is best for the franchise, even though it might cost them their jobs in the long run- but why put them in that position? I know that there are some critics of Dell and Monty, but Phil Jackson and Jerry West are not walking through that door. It is easy to just say, “I hated how they treated Thornton, get rid of them!” but then the follow up question is; Who do you replace them with? Not only have they both exceeded expectations, but they are by far the most qualified relative to anybody who would actually take either job. We can pine for this prospect or that prospect all we want, but locking those two up should be the first item crossed off on the Hornets offseason tasks list.

Editor’s note: Saw this article just minutes after I finished this final draft. MUST READ. Carry on.

No Gordon Trade

Please, please, please spread the word to your fellow Hornets fans that Eric Gordon can not be traded during or before the draft. Not for Portland’s two picks, not for the Wizards pick, not for anything out there. He can not sign his qualifying offer or an extension until July and that means that the Hornets do not have his rights to trade. And no, a team is not going to draft a player for the Hornets with the hopes that the Hornets can do a sign and trade with them a few weeks later. So, again, please spread the word because somehow I have not been successful in my attempts to educate some people on this issue.

Key Dates

May 30th- Draft Lottery

June 6-10- Pre-draft Combine

June 28- NBA draft

July 1st- Can start talking to free agents

July 11th- Free agents can sign

July 13-22- Vegas Summer League

Looking to the Future is a weekly column that you can find only on Hornets247.com. For past columns, click here. 

Recent filings to the Louisiana Secretary of State list both “The New Orleans Louisiana Angels, LLC” and “The New Orleans Louisiana Spirit, LLC” as reserved names. There are also additional filings reserving logo’s for both names. Additionally, the city for all four filings is listed as Metairie, where the New Orleans Saints are headquartered and registered.

There had been talk about both of these names since Tom Benson bought the team and the filings seem to confirm that.

There are no filings for names like “Brass” or “Krewe” as far as we’re aware.

In his introductory press conference, new owner Tom Benson stated that he would like to change the name of the team saying, “You’ve got to know we’re working on it. We’d like to change it tomorrow. We have not gotten that approved, but we’re not letting up on it, either.”

The rebranding process does not happen overnight, and cannot officially occur until Benson is approved as the new owner by the NBA’s Board of Governors, however Benson is getting a head start. Once he is approved as the new owner, expect the decisions on a rebrand to come quickly.

About the timing for a rebrand: Normally, this takes around 2 years once you get your ducks in a row, plus it requires a multi-million dollar fee to the NBA, plus the expenses of the rebrand itself. Even the Nets who just changed the locale part of their team, not the nickname, were subject to this following Prokhorov’s purchase of the team.

The Sonics-Thunder rebrand happened much more quickly. This proves that a rebrand in short order is possible if prepared. Even in this case, however, their rebrand was limited at first, with their mascot Rumble being unveiled mid-season (against the Hornets, in fact), for instance. This was also necessitated by the outcome of the lawsuits that pried the team from Seattle while leaving their history behind.

This settlement was reached on July 3, 2008, with the rebrand announced two months later. Benson is expected to be approved by the end of the month, and the legislative session ends just after, so there is even more time to get a Hornets rebrand done for this coming season if dispensation can be granted as part of the sale. If not, it stands to reason that the franchise could get a compromise done to rebrand next offseason, so the newly rebranded franchise will host the All-Star game in 2014. If not, we will tip off the 2014-2015 NBA season with out new digs if Benson can get the paperwork in this Fall.

About the Spirit: The Spirits of St. Louis is a most curious franchise. It was one of the Final ABA franchises, but it did not become part of the NBA. Rather, the owners were bought out for a certain share of TV money from the other ABA teams. To this day, the owners collect millions in TV from those teams. Yes, the Spurs, Nets, Pacers, and Nuggets pay these people every year. So, to get that name, it may require more than a NBA approval, depending on what actually remains of the Spirits. The ABA’ers may support the move and help to plug this leak in their finances, but this will take some doing.

Spirit is not Spirits, but if it is close enough in the eyes of some, the nickname can be taken off the table due to similarity. It all depends on the residual spirit of the Spirits.

Angels does not have this problem, despite the MLB team of the same name. Panthers, Rangers, Kings and Giants are other examples of the same nickname being used in at least two U.S. sports leagues.

We’ll be updating as we get more information.

THE END.

1. San Antonio Spurs

Free agent targets: James Anderson

Trade targets: Stephen Jackson’s expiring contract

If Marco gets a big deal from some other team who was as impressed as I was with his second half, James Anderson could be a cheaper and younger replacement for Monty to develop. Anderson had some moments in his rookie year, but he fell behind Neal, Danny Green, and others in the rotation and now the Spurs are ready to just let the former first rounder walk after not picking up his option. As for the trade market, San Antonio was rumored to be interested in Okafor and you would think that Demps would be interested in the idea of swapping him for SJax’s expiring contract and an asset if he wants to save the amnesty for Ariza (or if Benson won’t let him use it).

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

Free agent: None

Trade: Thabo Sefolosha, Serge Ibaka

OKC has one more year with this roster before the wolves come out to take their young pups. Next summer teams will throw huge deals at Serge Ibaka and James Harden, and in all likelihood, OKC can only match one. My guess is that they go with Harden, which is why I think they might be proactive in trading Ibaka if they can get the right deal. Or Sefolosha could be a guy that they might be willing to dump if their goal is to keep their payroll down in an attempt to keep both of their budding stars.

The question is: What would it take to lure Ibaka from OKC if they determine they can’t keep him long term, and would the Hornets give up anything if they can believe they can just sign him as a free agent the following season? Perhaps a package of Ayon and his cap friendly contract, Jarrett jack, and the 10th pick could get the trade done- but again, only if OKC knows they won’t be able to keep him past next season.

3. Los Angeles Lakers

Free agent: Jordan Hill

Trade: Lamar Odom trade exception

Jordan Hill was a guy I told Ryan we should target in a trade with Houston for Kaman. Ryan laughed at me, and the Rockets played hard ball with the Hornets, missing out on Kaman and the playoffs. The lesson we all learned? Listen to Mike Mac. But seriously, Hill is a guy the Hornets should consider if they want to go the power forward by committee route. He is just starting to show some of the potential that made him the 8th pick in the 2009 draft and he offers a power low post game that compliments Ayon’s more finesse style and J Smitty’s perimeter game. And before anyone chimes in, Hoopshype is wrong- the Rockets declined his option years, so he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

But the most likely move, if the Hornets and Lakers make a deal not vetoed by David Stern, would be a return to purple and gold for Trevor Ariza. Metta World Peace might have officially worn out his welcome in LA and could be an amnesty candidate this summer. If that happens, the Hornets would gladly let the Lakers take Ariza’s contract off their books and likely wouldn’t want anything more than a second round pick to compensate for the loss. Clearing Ariza would give the Hornets an extra 7 million in cap space if they want to go the veteran route or it would open up minutes for Aminu and Henry if they want to continue to develop their young guys.

4. Memphis Grizzlies

Free agent: Hamed Haddadi, Darrell Arthur (Restricted)

Trade: None

Memphis will have two restricted free agent power forwards this summer in Arthur and Speights, and despite Arthur’s incredible 2011 playoff performance, they will probably focus their efforts on keeping Speights. That means the Hornets can sweep in and get a guy that they drafted (and then sold) four years ago at a bargain price. If Arthur was healthy this season and he continued to progress, he might have been a guy who got a $40-$50 million offer this summer. Instead, he will only get a fraction of that, and the team that gets him could find themselves with a bargain if he returns to form.

5. Los Angeles Clippers

Free agent: None

Trade: None

Monty don’t like Floppers and that’s all this team has to offer. You can keep your Reggie Evans and your Kenyon Martin’s, we’ll fight for the playoffs with real men.

6. Denver Nuggets

Free agent: Javale McGee (Restricted)

Trade: Birdman, Al Harrington

Javale McGee was a guy that Demps pursued at the deadline this year, and he could be had this summer if a team makes an aggressive offer. Denver quickly regretted the deal they gave to Nene this past summer and they likely will balk at matching a deal that starts over $10 million for the inconsistent center. Perhaps Dell throws a big deal at him and hopes that he becomes this regimes Tyson Chandler. Or maybe he knows that he is destined to become another DeAndre Jordan, and just stays away.

As for the trade market, Birdman and Al Harrington are two contracts that Denver would love to unload and the Hornets might be willing to do the Nuggets a favor if they make it worth their while. Harrington is a similar player to Antawn Jamison, a guy the Hornets have coveted for two years, and the Birdman could give that second unit a much needed defensive presence. The Nuggets have their own pick this year (No.20) and the Knicks 2014 and 2016 first-rounders. Birdman, Harrington, and two of those three picks for Okafor might be a trade both teams are willing to do.

7. Dallas Mavericks

Free Agent: Ian Mahinmi

Trade: Roddy Beaubois, Nick Calathes, Shawn Marion, Lamar Odom

Dallas expects to make a huge run at Deron Williams this year, and the expectation is that they will likely have to clear some cap room to sign him and bring back a guy like Jason Terry. Dallas has the 17th pick in this draft and they could use that as part of a package to help convince a team take on a contract like Marion’s (2 years/18 million remaining) or Lamar Odom’s (8.2 million, less than 3 million guaranteed). Roddy B and Nick Calathes are two young prospects who can also be used in a similar fashion, and personally, I would rather have Calathes than the #17 pick. Think Vasquez, but with speed.

As for Mahinmi, he is a guy that I listed as #1 on my “players Hornets should target” way back in the summer of 2010. Back then, he was a no-name guy with very little value around the league and the Mavs took advantage, getting him on a minimum contract. This time around, he should command more, but if the Hornets can steal him for something similar to what Jason Smith got last summer (3 years/7.5 million), they should jump at the opportunity.

8. Utah Jazz

Free agent: CJ Miles

Trade: Paul Milsap

CJ Miles is pretty much the inverse of Al-Farouq Aminu, making him a guy that could be an excellent candidate to rotate with him at the small forward postion. Miles is a talented offensive player who is limited defensively and tends to shoot too much. And Aminu is… the exact opposite! Miles is maddeningly inconsistent because he has a horrible shot selection, taking way too many long two’s. His stats dropped across the board this season because of the fact that Utah’s rotations have been inconsistent, but last year he showed he can be a fairly dependable scorer and at 25 he still has some upside.

Paul Milsap is a guy that a lot of teams will be after this summer and Utah has an interesting decision to make. Do they hang onto him, even though Derrick Favors is their power forward of the future, or do they trade him while his value is at an all-time high? He is a free agent after next year and could command more than 10 million per season, leading me to believe that the Jazz will move him if they can add some quality at their other need positions (PG and SF). There is a 73% chance that they won’t have a first-round pick this summer, thanks to Golden State’s epic tank job, so perhaps the 10th pick and another piece or two (Jack, Ariza, Aminu) will be enough to pry him away.

In part 1, we talk the end of the season, lottery odds, Point-Counterpoint about Eric Gordon playing in the Olympics, and because we can’t stop ourselves, a little about the players in the draft.

In part 2, we roleplay. Michael is Dell Demps, I am Monty Williams. We decide which players should go and which should stay after talking about each of the players in depth.

Part 1

Part 2

Enjoy the Podcast! Want it on Itunes?

Number 2 in your programs, but number 1 in your power rankings - Jarrett Jack.

1. Jarrett Jack, PG: 45 GP, 34.0 MPG, 15.6 PPG, 45.6 FG%, 6.3 APG, 3.9 RPG, 18.0 PER

The team’s clear leader in a tough season, Jack finishes in the top spot; after all, who else could you really put here?

2. Chris Kaman, C: 47 GP, 29.2 MPG, 13.1 PPG, 44.6 FG%, 7.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 15.4 PER

Without Jack and Kaman’s efforts on offense, the Hornets would have struggled to score 80 points per game. Both deserve recognition for their consistent play this season.

3. Trevor Ariza, SF: 41  GP, 32.9 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 41.7 FG%, 5.2 RPG, 3.3 APG, 14.3 PER

Ariza finishes the season in the #3 spot thanks you his strong defense and improved shot selection on offense.

4: Jason Smith, PF: 40 GP, 23.7 MPG, 9.9 PPG, 52.0 FG%, 4.9 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 16.6 PER

Before the season began, if you had asked me to predict who would finish the season in the top 5 of these power rankings, I probably would have gotten 4 of the 6, and then laughed at   the notion of Smith and Ayon making it. However, as we have come to realize all too well this season, injuries happen, and as a result, Smith stepped up. The result is the 4th spot in these rankings and a ton of respect for the work he has done to improve.

5. Carl Landry, PF: 41 GP, 24.4 MPG, 12.5 PPG, 50.3 FG%, 5.2 RPG, 18.3 PER

Landry finished the season on a very high note, which will certainly benefit him while negotiating his next contract. Because of the unexpectedly strong seasons of Smith and Ayon along with the wealth of talent in the upcoming draft at the power forward position, that new deal for Carl probably won’t be coming with the Hornets. Best of luck to Landry as he continues his NBA career, regardless of his next location.

6. Gustavo Ayon, C: 54 GP, 20.1 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 53.6 FG%, 4.9 RPG, 16.7 PER

Of all Hornets players expected back with the team next season, this offseason may be most important for Ayon. He clearly wore down as the season progressed, and conditioning should be a major point of emphasis over the next few months. If he puts in the work, then we could see the Gustavo who we saw around February all season long next year.

7. Greivis Vasquez, PG: 66 GP. 25.8 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 43.0 FG%, 5.4 APG, 14.3 PER

Averaging four turnovers per game over the team’s final seven contests shows you exactly what Greivis needs to improve on next season. Plenty of young point guards have trouble with turnovers early on and learn how to better take care of the ball as they gain more experience, so I am confident that Vasquez can make the necessary adjustments to his game to improve in this area. The extended amount of playing time that he was given this season could prove to be invaluable for his future in the NBA.

8. Emeka Okafor, C: 27 GP, 28.9 MPG, 9.9 PPG, 53.7 FG%, 7.9 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 15.6 PER

Unless the team decides to use its amnesty provision on him and eat the final two years & $28 million remaining on his contract, expect to see Okafor back on the court as the Hornets’ starting center next season. Hopefully, he picks up right where he left off before his injury.

9: Marco Belinelli, SG: 66 GP, 29.8 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 41.7 FG%, 37.7 3P%, 12.0 PER

If the Cavaliers win the Anthony Davis sweepstakes, I have decided to irrationally blame Belinelli as a result of his game-winning layup against the Warriors on Tuesday night. There is a good chance that Marco doesn’t return to New Orleans next season, but Monty Williams’ glowing review given to Sports Illustrated about him may indicate otherwise.

10. Al-Farouq Aminu, SF: 66 GP, 22.4 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 41.1 FG%, 4.4 RPG, 10.6 PER

A rough season overall for Aminu, but he gained tons of essential experience through the ample playing time that he received this year. I’m really looking forward to seeing what that experience combined with strong offseason work turns into next season.

11: Eric Gordon, SG: 9 GP, 34.0 MPG, 20.6 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 3.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, 19.2 PER

Nine games was more than enough for me to see that the Hornets need to match whatever Gordon gets offered as a restricted free agent, and I think most people would agree with that sentiment.

12. Xavier Henry, SG: 45 GP, 16.9 MPG, 5.3 PPG, 39.5 FG%, 2.4 RPG, 9.2 PER

Given his aggressive, foul-drawing nature, Henry’s value hinges largely on his ability to convert from the line. As a 61% free throw shooter, Henry will struggle to get minutes on a good team; up that total by 15-20%, however, and that completely changes. Monty needs to lock Xavier in a gym this summer and make him shoot at least 100 free throws a day until he can consistently crack that 75% mark at the very least.

13. Lance Thomas, PF: 42 GP, 15.0 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 45.2 FG%, 3.0 RPG, 10.1 PER

Lance worked his butt off every day as a member of this Hornets team, but I’m just not sure how much higher his ceiling is than his current level of play. Monty gave him some minutes guarding opposing 3s, but that didn’t appear to go so well, so his best course of action now may be to hit the weight room hard this summer in an effort to improve his interior presence.

14. Jerome Dyson, PG: 9 GP, 20.0 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 39.6 FG%, 2.0 APG, 11.3 PER

Dyson did more than enough in his brief stint with the Hornets to warrant another invite to camp next season, and may have an early leg up on the 3rd point guard spot, depending on what the team does in the draft this summer.

Incomplete: Darryl Watkins, C

We hope you enjoyed our 2011-12 Hornets Player Power Rankings series. For past rankings, click here.

Because of Chris Paul, Hornets fans were usually busy this time of year watching their own teams’ games and worrying about the present. Now, with the Hornets finishing dead last in the Western Conference, all eyes are on the future. While most people are focused on the draft, you can bet that Dell Demps is simoultaneously scouting the playoffs, especially after Monty’s declaration that the Hornets will make the playoffs next year. A team doesn’t go from 21 wins to the playoffs because of a rookie- it will take vets to get them there. And what better vets to get you to the playoffs than vets with playoff experience? With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Eastern Conference playoff teams and some potential targets.

1. Chicago Bulls

Free agent targets: Omer Asik (Restricted)

Possible trade targets: Carlos Boozer

If Emeka Okafor is amnestied, it will be because his salary simply does not match his production- especially with the new luxury tax penalties and salary cap restrictions coming into play before the 2013 season. The Hornets could probably get a similar player at 5-8 million dollars a year, and Asik should be one of the guys they target. He is easily one of the top 10 defensive centers in the league, even though he is a reserve. His situation is similar to Marcin Gortat’s when he was in Orlando, in that he could probably start for several teams in the league, but he is stuck behind a top notch center in Noah.

Offensively, he is a mess (3 PPG, 46% FT), but his rebound rate is through the roof and over the last two years the Bulls have given up almost 10 points less per 100 posessions with him on the court. Oklahoma City gave Kendrick Perkins a little more than 8 million per year, and I would argue that Asik is a better defender, has more upside, and the difference in offense is negligable since they are both god awful. The Hornets could throw a reasonable contract at him and it is doubtful that the Bulls would match because they are already over the tax for next year.

As for Carlos Boozer, he is owed 46 million over the next 3 years and Chicago might want to take a different route depending on the development of Gibson. The Hornets wouldn’t be head over heels for Boozer, but might consider an Ariza/Okafor for Boozer swap. Okafor can be the Bulls third big as Taj Gibson moves into the starting role, and Ariza gives them a second lockdown perimeter defender. Not a horrible deal for either team.

2. Miami Heat

Free agents: Ronny Turiaf (Player option)

Trade Targets: Chris Bosh

Turiaf has a 1.2 million dollar player option that he likely won’t exercise if he has a good post season, and he fits the Dell Demps profile of hard working, blue-collar players. Okay, now that we have got the boring part of the way, let’s talk about Chris Bosh. If the Heat don’t make the Finals he is gone. Book it. And if he is traded, it is likely that the Heat will want a center in return. Would the Heat consider some kind of package that brings them Paul Milsap, Emeka Okafor, and Trevor Ariza for Chris Bosh and Shane Battier?

The Heat would upgrade at backup small forward, and the combination of Milsap and Okafor would give them more balance in the front court and create more depth. In this scenario, the Hornets would move the 10th pick and perhaps another asset to Utah for Milsap, whose departure would open up more playing time for Derrick Favors. Meanwhile, the Hornets put a defensive minded center like Asik next to Bosh and make him the #2 scoring option next to young Dwayne Wade (Eric Gordon)- a role that suits him better than “the other guy”, which he is in Miami. That is the kind of move that makes you an instant playoff team.

3. Indiana Pacers

Free agents: Jeff Foster, Louis Amundson, Roy Hibbert (Restricted)

Trade Targets: Danny Granger

Amundson is a guy Demps has targeted in the past and Foster could be a quality 5th big. But let’s talk about New Orleans native Danny Granger, and the best big man on the market this summer, Roy Hibbert. The Pacers go as Granger goes, and that might be the reason why they trade him this summer. If he shrinks in the playoffs, the Pacers will know he is not a guy that can lead them anywhere and they might want to see if Paul George will be the guy (who is untouchable, so don’t bother suggesting him as a target). Granger is overpaid, but he might be the best guy the Hornets could get if they are forced to move Eric Gordon, or he could be a guy who could be had for a draft pick- pairing him with Gordon.

As for Hibbert, he will likely get a max contract offer this summer, and if Benson gives the okay to amnesty Okafor the Hornets could get in the mix. He is one of the top five half court centers in this league, and the Hornets are determined to play at a slow pace. He is equally gifted in both the high post and the low post and could be a perfect compliment to a guy like Anthony Davis, should the Hornets be so lucky.

4. Atlanta Hawks

Free Agents: Ivan Johnson (Restricted), Willie Green

Trade Targets: Josh Smith

Ivan Johnson is a nasty, nasty man and Willie Green is still a guy Monty Williams wakes up in the middle of the night longing for, so they are two potential targets for the Hornets  this offseason. Neither can be more than a 10th or 11th man, but the Hornets used 21 guys this season, so 10th and 11th men are essentially starters for this team. The intriguing guy here is Josh Smith, another player who can determine his own fate in this year’s playoffs. If the Hawks lose to the Celtics once again and Smith does not match his wonderful regular season, he could be a guy that they look to move.

If the Hornets land Smith and Monty can get him to stop hoisting jump shots, he could be the best player on the team next season. He can do so many things on the court and guards multiple positions, making him a dream come true for a coach like Monty. The tricky part is that he is going into the last year of his deal next season and probably wants to get paid, but if the Hawks want to move him for Okafor and #10, the Hornets would likely jump on it.

5. Boston Celtics

Free Agents: Brandon Bass (P.O.)

Trade Targets: Rajon Rondo

Brandon Bass is only scheduled to make 4 million next year, so he will likely opt to become a free agent, and a return to the Big Easy is not out of the question. Bass could give the Hornets a more physical version of Jason Smith and could hold down the starting position until a rookie develops. Meanwhile, Rondo would be a guy Demps would go hard after should he become available again. Right now, he is in Danny Ainge’s good graces, but he could say or do the wrong thing in the playoffs and that might be the last straw for Rivers and Ainge.

A Rondo/Gordon back court would be amazing, and would likely force Monty to make this an uptempo team- much to the fans delight. The combo would also give the Hornets two of the best defensive guards in the league and an ability to attack from multiple directions. The price for Rondo would likely be considerably high, and it should be, but Monty’s prediction of a playoff birth would be all but guaranteed.

6. Orlando Magic

Free agents: Ryan Anderson (Restricted)

Trade targets: None

I am not even going to bring up the possibility of Dwight Howard, even though a successful night in the draft lottery would give the Hornets the ammunition to get him without having to give up Gordon. The fact is that he wants to be in a bigger market, so good luck to him and whichever team takes on the Dwightmare. Ryan Anderson, however, is somebody that the Hornets could target and steal from Orlando with the right deal.

Orlando is already at the luxury tax for next year and the new CBA has severe penalties for multiple time luxury tax offenders, so it might be hard for them to keep Anderson. A stretch four might be the way to go for the Hornets, as they look to create more space in the lane for Eric Gordon. Amnestying Okafor and giving his money to a combination of Anderson and Asik could be a coup for the Hornets, giving them more offensive versatility while covering for Anderson’s defensive limitations with the skill set of Asik.

7. New York Knicks

Free agents: Jared Jeffries, Landry Fields (Restricted)

Trade targets: Amare Stoudamire

Fields and Jeffries are two more guys who fit in the Hornets system, as half court players who can guard multiple positions. With the Knicks having to pay Lin, Fields could be gone this summer, while Jeffries could be had if a team is willing to offer more than the vet minimum. But again, the interesting name here is the big money vet, Amare Stoudamire. He just doesn’t fit with Melo and everyone knows it, but the Knicks might be forced to try to make it work because of the contract (3 years/64 million remaining).

A combination of Ariza and Okafor would work here, and the Hornets would essentially be adding on the last year of Amare’s deal to do that trade, as the first two years are essentially even. When healthy and utilized properly, Amre is one of the five best offensive power forwards in the game, and again, a guy like Asik could cover for him on defense. It would be a big risk, one Demps would be highly unlikely to take, but at this time of year you have to consider everything.

8. Philadelphia 76ers

Free agents: Spencer Hawes

Trade targets: Evan Turner, Andre Iguodala

Philadelphia will be out of the playoffs in 4 or 5 games and will be looking at their roster all offseason wondering how they could possibly break out of this mediocrity. Their GM has even taken to Twitter, soliciting advice from the fans on what he should do, so @hornets247 has a suggestion. Trade Evan Turner to the Hornets for Trevor Ariza and the 10th pick. Get some championship experience and another piece to bolster your front court for a guy you can’t seem to find a role for.

Meanwhile, the Hornets get a guy who can be a perfect compliment for Gordon, as the Hornets could go big and play those guys at the 1 and 2 or play fast with the right point guard by playing them at the 2 and 3. Both guys can guard multiple positions, handle the ball, make plays for others, and get to the rim. Turner is at that point in his career where he is ready to take off, but he won’t do it in Philly getting back up minutes. He will be more productive this year than anybody the Hornets could get at #10, and his ceiling is likely just as high. #GetItDoneDell

Introducing Memphis's 2014 starting back court.... oh, wait

“We need to get THIS guy, because he can be our {X Position} of the future. Pencil him in for the next ten years!”

Such is the general logic come draft time. A fan, blogger, writer, or player personal director looks at the current roster and wants his or her team to select the right combination of skill and fit for the current team. And not just the current team, but the current coach. Why do we do this when we all know that history tells us that by the time a draft pick develops, the roster will most likely be completely overturned and the coaching staff will be gone?

When it comes to the NBA draft, you are simply drafting commodities in most cases- commodities that you are hoping to buy low and sell high (or hold onto), but more often than not they are just given away for nothing or traded for another poor performing commodity. If this is the case, logic says you should think about the entire market (all 30 teams), as opposed to just your current wants and needs.  As I stated in last week’s podcast, only seven of the sixty players drafted in 2007 are still with their current teams. I started with that year because those guys drafted in the first round in ’07 are all done with their rookie contract and have either earned their second contract with the team that saw so much promise or are off somewhere else, trying to get some other GM to believe what the first GM once did just five short years ago.

As we look at that 2007 draft that was considered weaker than 2003, but stronger than most, we find one All-NBA player (Durant) who is the cornerstone of his franchise. Of the other six guys that are still with their original teams, we have two quasi All-Stars (Noah and Horford), a solid starter (Conley, Jr.), and three fringe starters (Rodney Stuckey, Thaddeus Young, and Tiago Splitter). Of the lottery picks that are no longer with their teams, 4 are on their third team, three more will hit free agency this year with limited to no suitors, and one is out of the league (Acie Law).

Some players taken later in the first round have found success in other places; guys like Aaron Afflalo, Jason Smith, Jared Dudley, Nick Young, and Marco Belinelli, but the teams that originally drafted them got little to nothing for those players when they traded them. Other guys fetched their original team an asset or two, as Aaron Brooks yielded Houston Goran Dragic, Wilson Chandler was part of the Carmelo trade for the Knicks, and Javaris Crittenton was part of the infamous Gasol for Gasol swap.

Go back a year to 2006 and you will only find five guys who are still with their original team six years later. 2005- only three first round picks out of the 30 selected remain. So there you have it, 90 first round picks taken between 2005-2007 who should all be hitting their primes right now, and only 15 (16.6%) are with their original team. Lottery picks fare slightly better, as 10 out of 42 (23%) are still with the team that drafted them, but that means that the Hornets have about a 1 in 7 shot of both of their lottery picks this year being with the team in 6 years when they are hitting their prime.

This article is not meant to be depressing, quite the contrary actually. It is meant to show the big picture and to give weight to the cliche of “drafting the best player available.” Rosters change, as do team executives, coaches, and overall team philosophies. It is not about taking the guy that fits best now, but rather the guy who will have the most value around the league over time. This gives you options, and the more options you have the better. It might be stating the obvious, but when you look back on the guys who were traded from their original teams and actually got value in return, you will find quality big men and efficient scorers. Or, you can just take your chances and draft with your specific puzzle at this specific time in mind, but history says you are more likely to fail if you have your team in mind as opposed to the wants and desires of the league as a whole.

Other Tidbits:

- If you haven’t checked out Jason’s article on the lotto probabilities, do it now! And now that we know the results of the coin flip between the Hornets and Cavs (Cleveland won), we have a better idea of the Hornets floor when it comes to that pick. If the Hornets don’t have one of their combinations come up in the top three, they will likely have the 5th or 6th pick (as opposed to 4th or 5th). And having said that….

- The top six picks in this draft will be Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, MKG, Drummond, Harrison Barnes, and Bradley Beal- in some order, barring a prospect having an unforeseen off the charts workout or some team reaching for need. In that case, the two guys most likely to crack that top six are Austin Rivers or Damian Lillard, but just like Thursday’s NFL draft had a ‘top six’, so does this year’s NBA draft.

That doesn’t mean that those will be the top six players three years from now, it just means that those six guys sit at the top of most teams’ boards and will have the most value should a team want to trade out of that pick. Guys like Drummond and Barnes, however, do not fit Demps’s profile so it will be interesting to see what the Hornets do if they get the 5th or 6th pick and they have to choose between: Drafting one of those guys, trading the pick, or reaching for someone outside of that group. My bet is that they will look to deal- either by packaging both of those picks to move up or swapping the pick for a young vet.

- Quincy Miller announced this week that he will enter the NBA draft after most assumed he was heading back to Baylor. With solid workouts, Miller could sneak into the back end of the lottery, and depending on what the Hornets do with their first pick, he could be in consideration for the Hornets with their second pick. Body wise, he looks like Aminu but his strengths and weaknesses are different. Miller is less athletic and not as good of a rebounder, but has a more effective jump shot and can extend his range out to three-point range. Still, there are better prospects and selecting him at 10 is unlikely.

- Let’s settle this argument (that really isn’t a good argument) here and now. One camp says that the Hornets should have lost their last few games to increase lottery odds. The other says that you can’t predict what ping pong balls will pop up, so keep playing hard and let fate determine what pick you have because often times a team with fewer balls wins the lottery. One camp will be unneccessarily nasty to their other after May 30th, with thumbs on their noses shouting “I told you so!” on this site and other forums. But the results don’t matter in this case, as neither can be predicted, it is all about the process. The logic is simple:

More options is better than less options —— True

Better players are better than worse players —— True

The more players you have to choose from, the greater your chance at better players—– True

So, there is no debate that the higher your pick, the better it is because it gives you more guys to choose from, right? And nobody is going to debate that the draft lottery is set up in such a fashion that the worse your record is, the better your chance at getting a higher pick, right? So, based on the process alone, losing both games this week was the right thing to do if your goal was to maximize your chance at better players. By beating Golden State, Hornets lost 42 lotto combinations that could have gotten them the #1 pick and decreased their odds of getting a top 3 pick by over 10%.  Now, if you want to argue that winning, building culture/team chemistry, etc. is better than more ping pong balls, then that is a sound argument and one that you are entitled to, but the argument that less ping pong balls are better than more is a bad one, even if the team gets lucky on May 30th.

- Look for a special podcast coming soon where we will have ESPN’s David Thorpe on where we will talk to him about his selection of Gustavo Ayon as a first team All-Rookie, the Hornets other young players, and some of the prospects in the 2012 draft. Also, our podcast with Dell Demps has been pushed back to early June, as we will pick his brain in the weeks leading up to the draft.

- I will go a little deeper with my big board this week because I believe there is a chance the Hornets could trade out of the 10th spot if a team with multiple picks (Boston/Houston) and/or a team willing to take on a contract (Ariza/Okafor) wants to move up. Just like the 2007 draft, there will be guys taken in the late teens or 20′s that turn out better than some late lotto picks.

McNamara’s Draft Board

1. Anthony Davis- I still say the comparison is Duncan. People say “not as talented offensively”, but he is as talented as 19 year old Tim Duncan and more talented than Ewing or Hakeem coming out of college on offense .

2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist- I have a new comparison- Ron Artest, but flip the personality 180 degrees. Imagine Artest in his prime- non-stop motor, top notch defense, finisher in transition and around hoop. Artest was a top 15 player in the league for 2-3 years, MKG can be the same but for longer.

3. Thomas Robinson- Might be the best fit for what the Hornets do on the offensive end.

4. Bradley Beal- Belinelli might have earned a spot on the team next year, and if that is the case, it might be hard to get Beal on the court. Still, you take talent over fit.

5. Harrison Barnes- He has shown he can be special if he doesn’t have to do too much, can just focus on scoring. Defense is well above average. I see him a little different than most- my NBA comparison is Steve Smith.

6. Andre Drummond- Too much potential not to roll the dice if the other five are off the board.

7. John Henson- I talked about how he is growing on me in last week’s podcast, then this week Thorpe called him a perfect fit. I agree- almost have to take him if he lasts to #10.

8. Jared Sullinger- We did this a couple of years ago when we had a first team All-American in Kevin Love and a lanky, raw, high-upside 3/4 hybrid name Anthony Randolph both come out in the draft. Some people loved Randolph and even after their first NBA seasons, they said he would be a superior player to Love. We saw how that played out- you take production over “upside”. History will repeat itself with Sullinger vs. Perry Jones.

9. Austin Rivers- Tell me how he busts. I am not saying he will be a star, but there is no way I can see him being out of the league in five years. At worst he is Lou Williams, and that is pretty good. Swing for the fences with first pick and take the nice double with Rivers at 10.

10. Kendall Marshall- High turnover rate scares me a little, but Marshall is another guy whose floor is pretty high. Team leader that can run any kind of offense.

11. Tyler Zeller- Another safe pick who probably wont ever make an All-Star team, but he will at least give you what Jason Smith and Tyler Hansborough give their teams.

12. Jeremy Lamb- Scorers are always wanted in this league and Lamb can shoot the lights out. Again, not a need for the Hornets, but if they trade down for Rockets two picks, Lamb could be a luxury pick.

13. Terrence Ross- Another guy who can shoot the lights out and play solid defense, Ross also rebounds well for his position. Considerable amount of upside as well.

14. Royce White- Another guy I have higher than most, I ask- how does White fail (on the court)? I know the fear of flying is a problem and there are some character red flags, but his skill set is unique and he can effect the game in multiple ways. Guys like that don’t bust.

15. Marquis Teague- I know people will call me crazy for putting him over Lillard, and I know Lillard will go higher, but 20 guys went higher than Kenneth Faried this year, so that means nothing to me. Teague took time to adjust in the first half of the year, but showed his true colors over the final 15 or so games, and he will only get better in the pros. He will be better than his brother Jeff.

16. Terrance Jones- I know he will be much higher on other peoples’ lists, but I hate guys with inconsistent motors and I think Demps agrees with me. Reminds me of Antawn Jamison with less talent. Thanks, but no thanks.

17. Damian Lillard- He had a couple of chances to showcase his game against legit competition and he put up pedestrian numbers. Best comparison I have seen is Mo Williams, but a Mo Williams isn’t worth the 10th pick in this draft.

18. John Jenkins- Another guy who will be ranked way lower by others, but if you have an A+ skill set, you will have a 10 year career in the NBA. If you were to tell me that one guy in this draft becomes the next Dell Curry, Jenkins is the guy I would pick- eerily similar.

19. Perry Jones III- If he is still there at 19, I would take him. So, basically, I wouldn’t tae him.

20. Doron Lamb- See Jenkins.

21. Kevin Jones- You want the guy who could become the next Paul Milsap? Here he is.

22. Dion Waiters- Very poor man’s Dwayne Wade can give your second unit a spark. He will bust if teams try to make him a starter, but as a 6th or 7th man, he can be a difference maker.

23 and 24. Arnett Moultrie and Tony Wroten, Jr.- Both guys have top 10 talent, but suffer from low basketball IQ and an on again/off again motor.

25. Myers Leonard- You take a chance at this point because he’s seven feet tall and he can run.

Looking to the Future is a weekly column that can be found only on Hornets247.com every Saturday. For past columns, click here.

Not quite yet. We’ll update live from Jazz Fest when the last wrinkles are ironed out. Yeah, that’s the kind of ship we run around here. Beach Boys reunite, fist full of couchon de lait, all while updating Hornets fans world-wide about coin flips a thousand miles away. Bienvenue a New Orleans.

Update: The Cavaliers won the tie-breaker.

In the first and second posts about the New Orleans Hornets’ lottery probabilities, there was uncertainty about our draft position. Now, that uncertainty is eliminated, replaced by a single flip of the coin, which will be performed later today. We present an in-depth look at the lottery in general, a look at how each pick of the Hornets may deliver, then a look at the combination of the picks.

Hornets247 will have more coverage in the coming weeks, of course.

NBA Draft Lottery

The Short: The 14 teams that do not make the NBA playoffs enter the NBA Draft Lottery. The first three draft picks are doled out via the lottery procedure. The remaining picks are assigned based on the initial slotting.

The Long: The NBA Draft Lottery is used to assign the top three draft picks in the NBA Draft. The 14 teams not in the NBA Playoffs are entered into the lottery. Teams are ranked in terms of number of wins, with the team with lowest wins being in slot 1, and the team with the most wins being in slot 14. We discuss ties below, but assume that there are no ties for now.

14 lottery balls, which seem like ping-pong balls with a number printed on them in some pattern, are placed into a randomizing hopper. Four lottery balls are drawn without replacement. The combination, without respect to order, is one draw in the lottery. This combination appears in exactly one of lists of combinations assigned to each team in the lottery. The number of combinations in each list is different for each team, with more combinations being assigned to teams with fewer wins. The particular number of combinations is discussed below.

There are 1001 possible draws from the lottery. One of these combinations is ignored if drawn at any time. In this case, the lottery balls are re-entered into the hopper, and the officials draw again. After the first draw of the lottery that corresponds to a team, the combinations for that team are designated as redraw combinations, and that team is awarded the first pick in the NBA Draft. The procedure is repeated until the first three lottery picks are assigned, with the picks being assigned in order.

In the event teams are tied in groups, the entire list of teams is ordered by wins with tied team being listed arbitrarily within those constraints. A `coin flip’ is then executed which ranks those tied teams. Tied teams are then awarded the average number of combinations assigned to teams in the slots they occupy based on the untied condition. If the average number of combinations for those tied teams is not an integer, the number of combinations equal to the greatest integer less than the average is assigned to each team. The remaining combinations are awarded to the team ranked most highly by the random procedure.

The ties not only affect the teams that are tied, but they also affect the chances other teams have at the second and third picks (the first pick probabilities are immune to these effects). This is because of the way teams that are selected for the first two picks have their combinations effectively removed from the lottery in succession.

The NBA Draft Lottery will be held on May 30, 2012, and the coin flips, as mentioned above, will be later today.

Update: The Cavaliers won the tie-breaker.

Hornets Slot

The Hornets are tied in the 3rd slot. These teams are assigned 137 or 138 of the 1000 combinations, with the 138 assigned the winner of the coin flip. Like all slots, any of the top 3 picks can be awarded to the team in this slot, along with picks 4, 5, and 6 if the Hornets win the coin flip and 4,5,6,7 otherwise. No other picks are possible.

The following table lists the probabilities of getting these picks from this slot in this draft to four digit precision if we win the coin flip. Also, note that here and elsewhere, round off error may frustrate attempts to get certain sums to be equal. Rest assured, these calculations were performed using sufficient precision to accurately report the probabilities to four digits.

And if we lose the flip (we did):

Timberwolves Slot

The Timberwolves are untied in the tenth slot. This slot is assigned 11 of the 1000 combinations. Like all slots, any of the top 3 picks can be awarded to the team in this slot, along with picks 10, 11, 12, and 13. No other picks are possible.

The following table shows the probability of getting these picks from this slot in this draft to four digit precision.

The 0.0000 entry indicates a non zero entry whose probability is below 0.00005.

Lottery Outcomes

The following table shows the nonzero probabilities of each nonzero draft outcome to four digit precision in the event we win the coin flip. As above, if the outcome does not appear, it has zero probability.

To read this chart, you must have a pair of picks in mind. The cell at the intersection of the row of the better pick and the column of the worse pick contains the probability of that pick combination happening, regardless of how they arise. For instance, there is a 0.0058 probability of the Hornets receiving the second and fifth picks in the draft if they win the coin flip.

The following chart is similar to that above, but contains the probabilities if the Hornets lose the coin toss (we did).

Inspection shows us that the Hornets most likely single outcome is to pick fifth and tenth, regardless of result of the coin flip. In each case, this outcome happens about 1/4 of the time.

These tables show all the possibilities and probabilities, but they aren’t easy to use, so we have some summary tables to help answer the popular questions.

What is the probability we get the top pick and at least a top X pick to go with it?

The first table shows the probabilities if we win the coin flip, the second if we lose the coin flip (we did).

The probability next to the pick indicates the probability that we receive the top pick and at a top X pick. So, there is a probability of 0.0134 getting the top pick and a top 5 pick to go with it if we win the coin flip.

Also, a `missing’ X has the same probability as the largest X that is listed that is also smaller than it. So the probability that we get the top pick and a top 13 pick to go with it if we win the coin flip is that same as that for the top pick and a top 12 pick if we win the coin flip. This convention is used in the following as well.

What is the probability we get at least a top X pick?

The first table shows the probabilities if we win the coin flip, the second if we lose the coin flip (we did).

For example, if we lose the coin flip, there is a 0.5370 probability of having a top four pick in the draft.

What is the probability both picks are in the top X?

The first table shows the probabilities if we win the coin flip, the second if we lose the coin flip (we did).

For example, if we win the coin flip, there is a 0.0112 probability of having both of our picks in the top three of the draft.

If you have specific questions, put them in the comments and we’ll address them.

Enjoy.

Update: A question arose as to how likely it was the coin flip we lost would affect us against the Cavaliers. From a talent perspective, we should be targeting different players if outside the top three, according to Mike. From a probabilistic perspective, our odds at getting into the top three are about even with them regardless. From a tie-break perspective, this will come into play with a probability of 0.2892, the probability that both the Hornets and Cavaliers miss the top three.

Michael McNamara refused to watch tonight, and that’s probably a good thing or we would have lost him during half time when he went into the bathroom, ran a warm bath and slit his wrists.

Yeah, it was that worrisome for rabid supporters of the tank at that point.  The Rockets came out disinterested and flat, playing no defense and jacking long jumpers.  The Hornets, on the other hand, started out applying pressure and defending hard, cutting to the basket, and getting easy looks.  Then Carl Landry came in and was giggling to himself visibly at all the ways he was destroying his old team as he pushed the lead almost to 20.

Happily, Monty didn’t play Landry in the second half, pulled Belli after he made a shot, and let Jerome Dyson and Watkins run themselves ragged.  Then, in the fourth, he called plays to iso Aminu on the wing or post up Lance Thomas.   Again, you can imagine how that went.  Rockets surge.  Game over.

I wanted to thank all of you who stop by and read our blog, and a big thanks to all of you who comment in the posts and make this a nice community.  Because of your support the Blog continues to be one of the biggest and best in the Truehoop Network and even with the team struggling, the number of people coming to visit the site did not decline this season.  That makes me and the rest of the guys feel awesome.   Thank you.

We’ll have a lot of stuff going up over the next couple months about the draft, free agency and player evaluation, and we’ll also be looking at site changes and redesign over the summer to try and make the site even better.  Stick around!

A pretty tumultuous season ends in Houston tonight.  Despite all the losing early in the season, and the gnashing of teeth accompanying this mad dash out of the bottom three of the league, I feel like the season is ending on a positive note.  New Owner, New Lease, New Star, New Young Prospects, and two lottery picks.  I can live with that.

As for the game tonight, Houston hasn’t played well in three weeks when they had something to play for, so I can’t really expect them to play well tonight when they are done for the season.  The Rockets are littered with veterans who have a place in the league, and I just have a feeling that once again, the young corps of Hornets players hungry to stay in the league will play with energy and trump whatever pride the Rockets are now playing with.

Keys to the Game

• Don’t play Gustavo Ayon.  Scola was his hero – a guy he modeled his game after, and he played hard against him in the last matchup.  Don’t let Ayon take over!!!
• Please Monty, give 48 minutes each to Watkins, Dyson, Lance Thomas, Xavier Henry and . . . Aminu?  Landry?  Crap, those guys will probably win it for us . . . Can we borrow Willie Green for a game?  Marcus Vinicius?  Maciej Lampe?

Okay, the Real Keys to the Game

The Rockets are the definition of mediocre.  They have slightly better than mediocre Free Throw, Turnover, Effective Field Goal, and Rebound Rates.  And to compound it, they post slightly worse than average numbers for Opponents in all four categories.  This is pretty unusual.  Most teams have a strength or two they rely on, or a weakness you can exploit.  The Rockets are simply solid at everything.  So what do the Hornets do?

• Allow Houston to post up.  The Rockets big men – Camby, Scola, Patterson, etc, are not physically overpowering big men.  They like to operate in the mid post, taking jumpers and fade away shots more than forays into the paint.  Let them do it.  As a team, they take a lot of those shots and are below the league average at finishing them.
• Despite their struggles at mid-range, the Rockets are actually pretty solid when shooting behind or just inside the three point line.  The Hornets will need to recover sharply after collapsing on drives to prevent themselves from being riddled by long range jumpers.
• Drive, Drive, Drive.  Houston allows a lot of shots at the rim, and lacking a shotblocker, is the fourth worst in the league at contesting those shots.  Considering their defense is pretty good at all other shot locations, the Hornets should try to attack this weakness with determination.

Enjoy the game!